Bookies backing Labour to win highest number of Senedd seats
Gareth Williams, local democracy reporter
The bookies are backing Labour to win the most seats in the election – but are also offering long odds on the party to win an overall majority on May 6.
With over two weeks to go until polling day, it has long been predicted that no party will manage to cross the threshold of 31 members and gain a majority for the new Senedd Cymru term.
According to the bookmakers’ latest odds, that remains the most likely scenario with odds of 5/2 being offered for Labour to win 30 seats or more, compared to odds on of 2/7 on them failing to do so.
While Cardiff West is the only constituency race on offer – with Mark Drakeford a short 1/5 to retain his seat – odds of 8/1 are being offered on the Conservatives ending up as the largest party when the counting has finished on May 7, while a Plaid Cymru win would return odds of 25/1.
The Liberal Democrats, who are facing a battle to retain its solitary Senedd seat in Brecon Radnorshire, are given a 250/1 chance of ending up as the biggest group in the Senedd.
The latest forecast follows an Opinium poll for Sky News this week, which put Labour on 29 seats, the Conservatives on 19, Plaid Cymru on 10 and the Lib Dems and UKIP on one each.
The poll also found that 35% would vote ‘yes’ to independence, if removing the ‘don’t knows.’
Previous YouGov polls have placed Labour and the Conservatives on roughly level pegging, however, with Labour losing as many as eight seats in the Senedd.