Conservatives would lose Welsh ‘red wall’ seats in fresh General Election, new poll projects

The Conservatives would lose their grip on almost all of their ‘red wall’ seats in a fresh General Election, a poll which included the Welsh constituency of Delyn has projected.

The Tory party would face a 17.3% drop in the polls in Delyn, with Labour winning the seat by 50.3% to 33% if a General Election was called now, according to the poll by JL Partners.

Of the 45 seats polled by the company that Labour lost in the 2019 General Election, Labour would now regain 43 of them, the poll commissioned by Channel 4 News and published this morning projected.

The findings are bad news for the Conservatives who made significant inroads in the north-east of Wales at the last general election, winning four extra seats there including Wrexham, Vale of Clwyd and Clwyd South. They also won Ynys Mon in the north-west, Brecon and Radnorshire in mid-Wales and Bridgend in the south.

Of the 45 seats polled, Delyn saw the ninth biggest swing against the Conservatives.

Delyn may be unusual however in that it is the seat of MP Rob Roberts who was suspended from the Commons for six weeks after its independent expert standards panel found he had “made repeated, unwelcome sexual advances” towards a staff member.

He continues to sit in the House of Commons as an independent, despite rejoining the Conservative Party.

But overall 48% of Red-Wall voters now back Labour, up five points, compared to 37% for the Tories, down eight, the poll suggested.

Applying a uniform swing, JL Partners predicted that this would result in all but three of the ‘Red Wall’ constituencies – Dudley North, Bassetlaw and Great Grimsby – being regained by Labour in a general election.

The poll comes as Boris Johnson hangs on to power by a thread after a series of damaging allegations that staff broke lockdown rules at Number 10 Downing Street.

Fieldwork dates were the 6th to 16th of January.