David TC Davies faces tightest election battle in Wales, says new poll

Martin Shipton

The tightest electoral contest In Wales will be in Monmouthshire between Welsh Secretary David Davies and his Labour opponent, according to the most detailed poll released in advance of the general election expected this autumn.

Mr Davies and Labour’s Catherine Fookes are both on 35% in the expanded version of the seat he has held since 2005, although she is said to have a lead of a fraction of 1%.

The poll was conducted by YouGov, using the so-called MRP method. MRP stands for “multi-level regression and post-stratification”, and is a form of modelling which allows the use of a national sample to work out accurate estimates of support for parties or candidates in small geographic areas.

In Wales, Labour would win 26 seats, Plaid Cymru four and the Conservatives two.

The election will see the number of MPs elected from Wales reduced from 40 to 32. At the last general election in 2019, 22 seats in Wales were won by Labour, 14 by the Conservatives and four by Plaid Cymru.

Reform UK

While Reform UK – the renamed Brexit Party – would win no seats in Wales, it would come a distant second in Aberafan Maesteg and Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney.

Across Britain, if an election were held now, Labour would win 403 seats, the Conservatives 155, the Liberal Democrats 49, the Scottish National Party 19, Plaid Cymru 4, the Green Party 1 and Reform UK none. There are 18 MPs elected from Northern Ireland and the Speaker holds the final seat.

Patrick English, YouGov’s director of political analytics, said: “The model is based on vote intention data collected and analysed by YouGov from 18,761 British adults interviewed between March 7 and March 27.

“These latest results push Keir Starmer closer toward repeating a Blair-level result for Labour, a full 27 years since Labour’s longest-serving prime minister first took office. In that election, Blair won 418 out of the available 659 House of Commons seats.

“By contrast, Rishi Sunak is now heading for a worse result than John Major’s 1997 total of 165 seats.

“The coming tidal wave projected by this model would sweep away several major Conservative figures. The most prominent casualty could be chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who is currently fractionally behind the Lib Dems in his Godalming and Ash seat. Science secretary Michelle Donelan is also currently trailing the Lib Dems in her Melksham and Devizes seat, and Michael Gove is just one point ahead in his Surrey Heath seat.”

The 32 seat predictions for Wales:

Aberafan Maesteg

Labour 48%; Reform 15%; Conservative 13%; Plaid Cymru 12%; Lib Dem 6%; Green 4%.

Alyn and Deeside

Labour 44%; Conservative 22%; Reform 15%; Plaid Cymru 10%; Lib Dem 7%; Green 2%.

Bangor Aberconwy

Labour 35%; Conservative 23%; Plaid Cymru 19%; Reform 10%; LibDem 7%; Green 4%.

Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney

Labour 51%; Reform 18%; Conservative 11%; Plaid Cymru 11%; LibDem 5%; Green 3%.

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe

Conservative 29%; Lib Dem 26%; Labour 21%; Reform 11%; Plaid Cymru 9%; Green 2%.

Bridgend

Labour 38%; Conservative 26%; Reform 12%; Plaid Cymru 12%; Lib Dem 7%; Green 3%.

Caerfyrddin

Plaid Cymru 26%; Labour 23%; Conservative 22%; Reform 14%; Green 7%; LibDem 6%.

Caerphilly

Labour 38%; Plaid Cymru 21%; Conservative 16%; Reform 15%; LibDem 4%; Green 4%.

Cardiff East

Labour 55%; Conservative 14%; Lib Dem 12%; Plaid Cymru 10%; Reform 7%; Green 3%.

Cardiff North

Labour 49%; Conservative 22%; Plaid Cymru 12%; Reform 7%; LibDem 6%; Green 4%.

Cardiff South and Penarth

Labour 55%; Conservative 19%; Plaid Cymru 12%; Reform 7%; LibDem 5%; Green 3%.

Cardiff West

Labour 48%; Conservative 19%; Plaid Cymru 15%; Reform 8%; Lib Dem 6%; Green 4%.

Ceredigion Preseli

Plaid Cymru 31%; Labour 22%; Conservative 16%; LibDem 11%; Reform 11%; Green 6%.

Clwyd East

Labour 40%; Conservative 29%; Reform 12%; Plaid Cymru 10%; LibDem 7%; Green 2%.

Clwyd North

Labour 41%; Conservative 26%; Reform 13%; Plaid Cymru 12%; Lib Dem 5%; Green 2%.

Dwyfor Meironnydd

Plaid Cymru 44%; Labour 19%; Conservative 13%; Reform 11%; Green 8%; Lib Dem 4%.

Gower

Labour 43%; Conservative 23%; Plaid Cymru 15%; Reform 11%; LibDem 5%; Green 2%.

Llanelli

Labour 33%; Plaid Cymru 22%; Conservative 16%; Reform 14%; LibDem 4%; Green 4%.

Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare

Labour 48%; Plaid Cymru 17%; Reform 14%; Conservative 13%; LibDem 5%; Green 4%.

Mid and South Pembrokeshire

Labour 38%; Conservative 31%; Reform 13%; Plaid Cymru 8%; LibDem 6%; Green 2%.

Monmouthshire

Labour 35%; Conservative 35%; Reform 11%; LibDem 9%; Plaid Cymru 7%; Green 3%.

Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr

Conservative 31%; Labour 27%; LibDem 16%; Reform 14%; Plaid Cymru 7%; Green 2%.

Neath and Swansea East

Labour 45%; Conservative 16%; Plaid Cymru 15%; Reform 14%; LibDem 6%; Green 3%.

Newport East

Labour 50%; Conservative 20%; Reform 14%; Plaid Cymru 8%; LibDem 6%; Green 3%.

Newport West and Islwyn

Labour 44%; Conservative 22%; Reform 14%; Plaid Cymru 9%; LibDem 7%; Green 4%.

Pontypridd

Labour 43%; Plaid Cymru 19%; Conservative 16%; Reform 13%; LibDem 5%; Green 4%.

Rhondda and Ogmore

Labour 50%; Plaid Cymru 17%; Reform 14%; Conservative 10%; LibDem 5%; Green 4%.

Swansea West

Labour 51%; Conservative 17%; Plaid Cymru 12%; Reform 11%; LibDem 6%; Green 4%.

Torfaen

Labour 47%;Conservative 18%; Reform 16%; Plaid Cymru 10%; LibDem 5%; Green 3%.

Vale of Glamorgan

Labour 48%; Conservative 29%; Reform 10%; LibDem 5%; Plaid Cymru 5%; Green 3%.

Wrexham

Labour 41%; Conservative 26%; Reform 13%; Plaid Cymru 10%; LibDem 6%; Green 3%.

Ynys Mon

Plaid Cymru 31%; Labour 25%; Conservative 19%; Reform 13%; Green 6%; LibDem 4%.