Mistake’ to think Reform is the only threat, polling guru tells Labour

Focusing on Reform UK is a “mistake” for Labour as the party loses support to the Liberal Democrats and Greens, polling expert Sir John Curtice has said.

While Nigel Farage’s party is currently the “principal threat” to Labour’s seats at the next election, the polling guru told an event on the fringe of the party’s annual conference that Reform was “far from the only threat”.

He suggested Labour should not “repeat the Tories’ mistake” of focusing on immigration, and that improving the economy and the NHS was more likely to return voters to the party.

Sir John said: “It is a mistake to believe that this party’s only problem is Reform. It isn’t.

“Actually, you are losing more support to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens collectively, much more support, than you are to Reform.”

Tactical voting

Even in seats where Labour was fighting with Reform, he said, loss of support to Lib Dems and Greens could cost Labour MPs, adding it was far from clear that tactical voting would see anti-Farage voters opt for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

He said it was mainly former Conservative voters who were “feeding the Reform juggernaut”, and were more likely to switch back to the Tories than vote Labour.

In a bleak assessment of Labour’s situation a year in, Sir John said the party had suffered “the worst ever fall in support for a newly elected government”, having entered power on the lowest share of the vote for a winning party and facing a “deeply unhappy” electorate.

Asked whether there was any hope that Labour could turn it around, he replied: “The honest answer to that is no.”

He added that “clearly, if by 2029 the economy is turned around and if by 2029 the waiting lists are way, way back down”, Labour might be able to recover its position.

But he also cast doubt on whether Sir Keir would be able to capitalise on such a situation, saying he had cast himself as “the friendly local plumber” fixing issues with “policy pipes”, when voters really wanted their leaders to be “the architect of Valhalla”.

‘Mystery’

Sir John said: “You need to do more than change the reality, you also have to influence perception.

“And clearly, the question that is being raised about the current Labour leadership is, does it have the ability to change the mind?”

Saying people still did not know what Sir Keir stood for, he said: “The mystery of Keir Stamer, who is he, what does he stand for, that mystery, we are maybe two thirds of the way through the novel, but we are still not sure where the body lies.”

And with speculation about a leadership challenge from Andy Burnham hanging over the conference, Sir John showed his audience a stark chart indicating the Greater Manchester mayor was by far the most popular politician among 2024 Labour voters.

While the Prime Minister enjoyed a net favourability rating of plus 13%, Mr Burnham’s stood at plus 37%, with almost half of 2024 Labour voters saying they had a positive view of him.