A stride forward in devolution’s onward march

Gerald Holtham looks at a new book which provides an insider’s account of the Co-operation Agreement between Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru.

John Osmond’s new book The Politics of Co-Opposition is a revealing account of the 2021-24 Co-0peration Agreement between the Welsh Labour Government and Plaid Cymru – the first example of Contract Parliamentarism in the UK.

A wide-ranging reflection on what the Agreement did and did not achieve, the book is written from a Plaid perspective and an insider’s viewpoint. It describes how it served Plaid’s longer-term objectives and, indeed, what the prospects for those objectives are. The verdict is on balance strongly positive, though flaws are acknowledged.

For those approaching the Co-operation Agreement with little prior knowledge of Welsh politics, the first part of the book usefully outlines the circumstances that led to the Agreement.

Converged

In important respects, Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru have converged in the post-devolution period.

Labour buttressed itself against Plaid by taking a Welsh-patriotic stance. It did so by stressing that Welsh political culture was to the left of New Labour and the party’s chosen identity reflected that position – ‘Classic Labour’ in Rhodri Morgan’s phrase.

Under Conservative governments in Westminster it made a point of asserting it stood for the Welsh interest and tended to blame difficulties on ‘London’. Meanwhile, Plaid moved left in its social and economic policies as it attempted to attract support in post-industrial areas, outside its rural Welsh-speaking heartland.

However, this convergence did not remove mutual suspicion and, indeed, further intensified rivalries. The personal rapport and trust between the two leaders, Mark Drakeford and Adam Price, was, as Osmond explains, critical to the formation of the agreement. Both were innately left-leaning Welsh speakers from Carmarthenshire with an intellectual bent.

Perils

Plaid Cymru wished to avoid the perils of being the minor partner in a coalition with Labour, which occurred between 2007-2011 and which proved electorally disadvantageous. Hence the search for Co-Opposition, to use Adam Price’s apt phrase.

Plaid wished to retain a distinct identity in the hope they could be the major party in a different coalition after 2021. In the event, those hopes died as Brexit put an unbridgeable gulf between the Conservatives and Plaid.

It also temporarily raised Conservative support in Wales while Covid later raised the profile and popularity of Mark Drakeford. At the 2021 election Plaid relapsed to third party in the Senedd without any prospect of power. The Co-operation Agreement became the party’s only means of influencing policy, while for Labour it ensured they could pass a budget and key legislation without ad hoc horse-trading.

A singular aspect of John Osmond’s account is the diary of his first 100 days as Adam Price’s Special Adviser, which takes up the second part of the book.

The entries detail the meetings and machinations leading to the setting of Plaid’s policy proposals and the negotiations which saw some incorporated in the final Co-operation Agreement. This section, which is discreetly revealing about intra-party tensions, provides essential source material for historians and has a certain fly-on-the-wall fascination, especially for those with an interest in Welsh politics and a knowledge of the individual politicians involved.

Perspective

The book’s third part reviews what the Cooperation Agreement achieved in a longer perspective. It strongly reflects Osmond’s confidence in the inevitable success of the programme he espouses. You could say he has a Welsh equivalent of the Whig view of history. Whatever the appearances, the real story is of slow but inevitable progress that will culminate one day in an autonomous Welsh polity and nation.

Setbacks are acknowledged but do not disturb his conviction. The goal will not be achieved by a single political party but by a number working together on individual steps along the road. After all, the story goes, Wales has survived as a nation against the odds and has now acquired a government and political system for the first time since 1536, if not 1282.

From a shaky start the Welsh National Assembly, now Senedd, has acquired legislative and limited fiscal powers. A legal jurisdiction must surely follow. The Cooperation Agreement, by ensuring the enlargement of the Senedd to have enough members both to constitute a government and to provide enough independent members to hold it to account, has facilitated another step along the long, bumpy but irresistible road.

The Co-operation Agreement, then, apparently gave the Welsh devolution process another stride in an onward march. However, there was a substantial catch. Plaid Cymru wanted a more democratic electoral system for the enlarged body, like the Single Transferable Vote, but Labour insisted on a closed list system as a condition for enlargement.

Yet, by reducing voter choice this seems likely to reduce voter turnout in Senedd elections from already modest levels. While seen as necessary by insiders, enlargement is doubtfully popular with the public at large many of whom are resentful at the expense, coming at a time when both public services and private incomes are squeezed. Time will tell whether Plaid’s concession on the electoral system will result in a check rather than a boost to devolution by increasing public disengagement from the institution.

Disputes

Osmond provides a detailed account of other disputes and how, after initial resistance from Labour, the negotiations ended up with a wide-range of policies. In effect, Osmond asserts, Plaid provided Labour with a substantial part of its programme for government. Significantly, however, Labour was not prepared to entertain any substantive innovations in policy for the economy. Notably, Plaid’s commitment to re-establish a Welsh Development Agency, crucial it believes for effective policy delivery, was off the table.

Osmond gives an informative, insider’s perspective on the conditions that are necessary to make such cross-party deals possible. In the first place the personal chemistry between the major personalities has to work. Then the parties themselves have to align in their willingness to co-habit.

The experience of the Co-operation Agreement is testimony that when these two aspects come under pressure, when the personalities and politics change, such accords can easily fall apart. Nevertheless, the Co-operation Agreement lasted for most of its intended three years. It proved an innovative and imaginative alternative to a coalition that, because of the relative strengths of the two parties following the 2021 election, was unattainable. It is an open question, however, whether it is likely to be repeated.

Nonetheless, after future Senedd elections, when parties search for mechanisms to achieve a working majority, politicians in Cardiff Bay will be able to refer to this book to see what can be learnt from Wales’s first experience of Contract Parliamentarianism. In the meantime, for those wishing to know the inside story of an historic period in Welsh politics, this is a timely and thought-provoking book that seeks to persuade but also to inform.

Gerald Holtham is Professor of Regional Economy at the Cardiff Metropolitan University. This article is based on his Preface to The Politics of Opposition, published by the Welsh Academic Press.

The book is being launched at a Wales Governance Centre event at the Glamorgan Building, Cardiff University, Cathays Park, Cardiff, at 6pm for 6.30pm on Wednesday 6 November 2024, in which John Osmond will be in conversation with Professor Richard Wyn Jones, Director of the Wales Governance Centre. Free tickets to attend the event are available here: https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-politics-of-co-opposition-tickets-1055113897069