Is backing independence the same as being a nationalist? Not necessarily

Robin Mann, Reader in Sociology, Bangor University

Over the past few years, support for Welsh independence has grown in ways not seen before. A recent poll commissioned by YesCymru, a pro-independence campaign group, found that 41% of people who’ve made up their minds on the issue would now vote in favour of independence.

The striking finding is that the number jumps to 72% among 25-to-34 year olds. Meanwhile older generations, particularly those aged 65 and up, remain firmly in the “no” camp, with 80% opposed.

This does seem a big shift in public mood. But does it mean Wales is becoming more nationalist? Not exactly.

The relationship between constitutional attitudes and nationalism is complicated, as research by myself and colleagues shows. Many people back independence for reasons that have less to do with feeling strongly Welsh or waving flags, and more to do with wanting better decision-making closer to home.

Pandemic

During 2021, as part of a broader research project on Welsh people’s views on the COVID pandemic and vaccination, we spoke to people from different ages, backgrounds and locations. Some were vaccinated, others weren’t. Some had voted in elections while others hadn’t voted in years, if ever.

Many people we talked to felt the Welsh government had done a better job than Westminster at handling the pandemic. They saw the decisions made in Wales – like keeping stricter rules in place when England relaxed theirs – as more sensible, more caring, and more in line with what they personally wanted from a government. And with that came a confidence that Wales could handle even more control over its own affairs.

Historically, Welsh nationalism was tightly linked to the Welsh language and culture. Self-government was always a part of the conversation, but not necessarily the main driver. That started changing in the late 20th century.

In 1979, Wales voted against devolution. In 1997, it narrowly vote in favour. Thereafter, things slowly began to shift – and now, more than 25 years into devolution, support for self-government is the mainstream view. Independence is no longer such a fringe idea.

Younger generations

Interestingly, younger generations are far more open to it – and many of them aren’t what you’d typically think of as nationalists. They may not speak Welsh or see themselves as “political” in the traditional sense. Their support often comes from practical concerns about the economy, democracy and how decisions are made.

External events like Brexit have clearly played a role. In fact, the YesCymru campaign was formed just before the EU referendum in 2016. Independence support surged afterwards, especially among Remain voters.

Many saw the Brexit fallout, as well as austerity, as proof that Westminster didn’t reflect their values or priorities. This showed how disruptive events can reshape the way people see their place within the UK.

Independence without nationalism?

One of the more surprising findings in our research – echoed in the 2025 polling – is that support for independence doesn’t always come from people who are politically engaged or pro-devolution. In fact, some support came from people who hadn’t voted in years, or felt completely disillusioned with the political system.

They expressed their support for independence through statements like: “They all need to go [meaning the Welsh government], but if I pay tax in Wales I want it to stay in Wales and be spent here.”

We also found a lot of people sitting on the fence. They weren’t against independence, but they had big questions about it. Would it mean isolation? Would it lead to more division?

One person told us: “I’m a little bit nationalistic, but I didn’t want the UK to leave the EU. So why would I want Wales to leave the UK?” Another said: “I don’t believe in borders, but I do think the Welsh government should run things.”

These aren’t black-and-white views. People’s feelings about independence – and nationalism – are often full of contradictions. And this reflects the wider truth that ordinary political views are often messy. Most of us don’t live in the extremes, and this is a good thing.

What’s also worth noting is that nationalism takes many forms. Some people who strongly oppose Welsh independence do so from a very rightwing populist-nationalist perspective, where calls to abolish the Senedd (Welsh parliament) sit alongside demands for hard borders and less immigration. So, the assumption that “independence equals nationalism” isn’t always true – and nor is the reverse.

Could independence really happen?

Wales isn’t alone in debating big questions about its future. In places such as Scotland, Catalonia and Flanders, political and economic crises can fuel movements for independence. In all these cases, trust in central government and a desire for more local fiscal control have played a major role.

For Wales, the question often comes back to the economy. While faith in Wales’s ability to govern is growing, many still worry whether an independent Wales could stand on its own financially. And for a lot of undecided voters, that remains the sticking point. For this reason, granting Wales more powers through devolution might do more to stave off demands for independence than anything else.

This article was first published on The Conversation