Labour MSs sanguine over election prospects despite shock poll
Kay Brading
Welsh Labour MSs say they are unperturbed by last week’s shocking Senedd voting intention poll, which revealed their party is no longer the most popular choice among Welsh Voters.
Last week’s Barn Cymru poll carried out by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, puts Plaid Cymru in the lead for the first time since 2010, with Welsh Labour tying for second place with Reform UK.
Plaid Cymru led by one point with 24% of the vote, with Welsh Labour and Reform UK both on 23%.
The Conservatives, who crowned a new leader this week, slipped to fourth place with 19% as some of their voters switched their support to Reform UK.
With around 18 months until the Senedd election 2026, the poll shows Reform UK equalling the Brexit Party’s highest ever place in the polls and Labour’s support dropping four points.
Plaid Cymru welcomed the result as a “historic turning point” for the people of Wales.
But in their first electoral test since the poll was published last week, Plaid landed in sixth place in a Splott Cardiff Council by-election gaining only 88 votes.
Labour held their position in Splott with 711 votes.
‘Positive’
So what do Welsh Labour Senedd Members think of the results of the ITV poll? Are they worried? We asked four MSs for their thoughts.
Blaenau Gwent MS Alun Davies, who was first elected to what was then the National Assembly in 2007, says he’s feeling “positive” about the future of his party in the Senedd.
He said: “We can’t ignore the very real challenges facing the party. The economic failures of Brexit, austerity and Liz Truss’s incompetence has hit people hard.
“Labour now needs to demonstrate that the partnership we speak of between London and Wales actually delivers real benefits for people.”
He added: “But I’m actually feeling very positive about the future. I think that Eluned Morgan has got a good grip of where we need to be as a party and a strong grip on the critical priorities we face as a country.
“And we’ve got the next year to demonstrate that we can win back the confidence of people across the whole of Wales. And I relish that challenge.”
‘Volatile’
Former Counsel General and MS for Pontypridd, Mick Antoniw, disregarded the voting intention results saying it could be down to the fact Labour in Westminster has just published its Autumn Budget.
He said: “It is just one poll, at a pre Christmas time with politics pretty volatile, just after a budget. Politicians tend to cherry pick what they like from these polls and ignore the rest.
“There is a long way to go. There is no election campaign underway yet. It is foolish to read too much into them.”
He added: “Opposition parties spend a lot of time trying to write off Welsh Labour and then lose elections.
“The challenges are of course great but voters in Wales usually support parties that are serious and responsible rather than populist and opportunist.”
‘Serious’
Another Labour view was that the results of the ITV poll must be “taken seriously” as a signal that the party’s messaging is “not as good as it could be”.
But they added that the result is not the breakthrough Plaid Cymru thinks it is.
The Labour MS who did not wish to be named said: “There are many good things happening in Wales as a result of Welsh Government actions, but I’m not sure we are communicating it effectively.
“But as last night’s by-election in Splott showed, even where Labour’s vote fell dramatically, we still won the seat and Plaid came a very poor 6th behind Reform and only marginally ahead of Tories.
“So my take is that Plaid still have a way to go and one poll is not necessarily the breakthrough they think it is.”
‘Wrong’
MS for Swansea East, Mike Hedges wrote an analysis of whether General Election opinion polls were correct for Nation.Cymru in August this year.
The Labour back bencher says he has seen “no discernible growth” in support for Plaid Cymru whilst out campaigning at weekends.
He said: “We know the polls in the week of the general election were wrong and almost all outside the 3% tolerance but because it predicted a big Labour win and that is what happened the errors were ignored.
“Any poll that shows more than half the electorate voting is going to be wrong. My expected turnout at the Senedd election is under 40%. Two thirds of the general election turnout.
“The poll result is not what people are telling me, having campaigned most Saturday mornings in Swansea East there is no discernible growth in Plaid Cymru support.
“In an election on Thursday this week Plaid Cymru polled 88 votes in Splott. These polls have a record of being substantially wrong
“They have previously predicted the Conservatives to be the biggest party, Plaid Cymru the biggest party and Labour to win three of the four EU seats which were all substantially wrong.
“Some humility and acceptance that their methodology does not work would help.”
Dr Jac Larner from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre says that while the top line of the ITV poll is “dramatic” it is “just one poll”.
He said: “We must remember that we are asking people to consider how they would vote using an electoral system very few will be familiar with in constituencies that don’t yet exist. It’s likely we will see a lot of volatility in vote intention over the next 18 months.”
Support our Nation today
For the price of a cup of coffee a month you can help us create an independent, not-for-profit, national news service for the people of Wales, by the people of Wales.
I don’t think Labour MSs claiming it’s bad news for Plaid that they’re broadly remaining static (whilst Labour’s vote collapses), is quite the win they think it is.
A closer look at the Splot by-election result show that pro independence parties total vote was higher than the Labour vote in one of their heartland seats. The Greens came second with 362 votes, Propel gained 305 votes and with the Plaid vote of 88 that is a total of 755 votes against Labours 711 votes.
A recent report from Labour linked think tank Compass entitled ‘Thin Ice’ suggests that 48% of those that voted for Labour in the recent general election would be prepared to vote ‘Liberal, Green or Plaid Cymru’ if Labour was seen to be not delivering.
Unless Plaid and the Greens come to some sort of arrangement having a higher aggregate vote is meaningless.
It’s also to be expected that Plaid would do badly in Splott as they have no real presence there, and similarly have no presence in Plasnewydd Ward either. Consequently Plaid gets few votes. It’s interesting that Propel got so much support, but then that party is locally based and it’s leader, though very much political Marmite, has substantial support. However, both Plaid and Labour are deluding themselves if they think that they can succeed with words alone, which is thus far all they have offered. Both parties need to realise that people are more focused on what they do and… Read more »
Correct, Geraint. Look at Splott. Labour vote dropped from 71% to 34%. Propel came from nowhere and beat Reform. Plaid has been around for 100 years and was nowhere. I know its only one minor poll, and Propel has a long way to go. But it makes you think what a common sense Indy party might achieve. The problem in the middle ground (not ‘far right’) is that noone has the detailed policies. Wales needs to control its own revenues, transport, justice, steel etc – the big picture.
So support for Plaid Cymru is highest.
Give the party’s leadership a few weeks and they’ll soon mess things up.
Margin of error really.
Of course it is only one poll but it is the direction of travel which is important and that show a very respectable strength to REFORM. Bascially all 4 partes are within a margin of error.
Elephant in the room anyone? Reform also in 2nd place and up by 5 points.
Ssshhhh!