2025 will be one of three warmest years on record, says Met Office
Next year is set to be among the world’s hottest years, after 2024 breaks the 1.5C warming threshold for the first time, the Met Office said.
The Met Office outlook for 2025 suggests it is likely to be one of the three warmest years on record, with global average temperatures around 1.4C above pre-industrial levels, just behind 2024 and 2023.
This year is expected to be the warmest year on record and is now almost certain to exceed 1.5C above the pre-industrial period for the first time in a “sobering milestone in climate history” as the world exceeds, temporarily, a threshold beyond which the worst impacts of climate change are expected.
It means 2024 will beat the previous record of 1.45C set the year before in 2023.
Climate change
Climate change is the main driver for the record heat, although global temperatures in 2023 and 2024 were also slightly pushed up by the El Nino process of natural climate variation, in which warmth from the tropical Pacific warms the Earth’s atmosphere, the experts said.
But although the Pacific is shifting to a cooler La Nina phase, 2025 is still expected to see average global temperatures well above anything seen before 2023.
Next year is forecast to be between 1.29C and 1.53C above pre-industrial averages, with a central estimate of 1.41C, the Met Office said.
La Nina
Professor Adam Scaife, who leads the team that produced the Met Office’s global forecast for 2025, said: “Interestingly, the warm 2025 predicted global temperatures occur despite the tropical Pacific moving towards a La Nina phase which is driving slightly cooler conditions.
“Years, such as 2025, which aren’t dominated by the warming influence of El Nino, should be cooler.
“2016 was an El Nino year and at the time it was the warmest year on record for global temperature.
“In comparison to our forecast for 2025 though, 2016 is now looking decidedly cool.”
The Met Office flagged the chance that 2024 would see average global temperatures exceeding 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in its annual forecast late last year.
Global warming of 1.5C is seen as threshold beyond which increasingly dangerous heatwaves, storms, rising seas, melting ice and environmental collapse will be felt, and countries have pledged to “pursue efforts” to curb temperature rises to that level under the global Paris climate treaty.
Milestone
The Met Office’s Dr Nick Dunstone, who led production of the forecast, said: “A year ago our forecast for 2024 highlighted the first chance of exceeding 1.5C.
“Although this appears to have happened, it’s important to recognise that a temporary exceedance of 1.5C doesn’t mean a breach of the Paris Agreement.”
“But the first year above 1.5C is certainly a sobering milestone in climate history,” he said.
The Met Office said it used a 20-year average to assess current global warming levels, including future climate projections and recent observations, which currently gave a long-term average of 1.3C above the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900.
Support our Nation today
For the price of a cup of coffee a month you can help us create an independent, not-for-profit, national news service for the people of Wales, by the people of Wales.
but but but but but my multiple cheap as chips foreign flights to go to endangered islands and coasts before they are drowned by rising waters…..
I miss the Maldives terribly: I still remember the day when they disappeared underwater, as predicted in the ’80s.
Thank goodness we all survived the Acid Rain doom and gloom predictions – let alone the hole in the Ozone layer that was going to wipe us all out. Grifters, on a gravy train…
Two items addressed by intervention though not completely eliminated.
The grifters are the ones that inform you.
What intervention saved the Maldives then Jeff? Do tell.
Indian Ocean gets drained a little bit annually as it flow south towards the Pole. That enables the Maldives to survive. Neat trick that.
Really smart: must have been a Musk idea!
…and the Obamas took a big chance buying their beach-front property on Martha’s Vineyard – despite their terror of sea-level rises: it’s almost as if….
…they are amphibious humans !
I’ve lived in the same house that overlooks the sea for more than 30 years.
The high tide mark now is exactly the same as it was when I moved in the only thing that varies it is onshore gales.
Don’t tell Jeff that whatever you do: he’s on the edge since he found out that Time Magazine has made Trump man – sorry, person, of the year!
Oh cripes! I’d suggest that anyone who thinks Net Zero is going to help disconnect their has supply, only use electricity from ‘renewables’, get rid of any ICE vehicles, stop flying, and become vegan. Once the rest of us witness the wonder of your new lifestyle I’m sure we’ll be clamouring to join in.
The 1.5 is questionable. Nobody was taking accurate worldwide measures in the mid 1800s – and the mid 1800s was also the end of a mini ice age so it’s an unfair base point. Anyway, we all know global warming is happening – Net Zero is a waste of time for the UK as we only produce 1% of global warming so even if we hit Net Zero it would have no impact on global warming. So we should not be bankrupting the country to achieve it. Our effort should be in dealing with the consequences of global warming (dont… Read more »
Well said – I sometimes get the impression our glorious leaders in Wales will fix the issue singlehandedly – for humanity!. By all means get positive about reducing waste and pollution and developing effective renewables but NEVER by bringing the public down with it on some hobby horse crusade – say by cancelling all road building and infrastructure and stifling economic progress.
I notice the Swedish doom goblin’s now managed to quell her terror of the climate catastrophe and has moved on to Palestine – funny that.
Doom goblin! That’s a bit rough on goblins, innit?
I would be grateful if I could be given a decent forecast for tomorrow to be honest.