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All but one Welsh constituency prefers Keir Starmer over Rishi Sunak

24 Oct 2022 2 minute read
Keir Starmer by Danny Lawson / PA Wire. Rishi Sunak by Scottish Conservatives.

All but one constituency in Wales prefers Keir Starmer over Rishi Sunak, a new interactive map based on polling results by YouGov has shown.

Of the 40 present constituencies in Wales, 39 favoured Keir Starmer while one – Montgomeryshire in the north of Powys – prefers Rishi Sunak.

But even there Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer are only separated by one percentage point, 35% to 34%.

Support for Starmer is highest in Cardiff Central at 52% to Rishi Sunak’s 31%.

Rishi Sunak fails to pick up any constituencies in Scotland, although there were two where ‘not sure’ is the favoured option.

“Support for Starmer over Sunak is particularly strong in both Scotland and Wales, with the new Tory leader failing to win a single seat north of the border and in just one in England’s westerly neighbour,” YouGov said.

Rishi Sunak does rather better in England but Keir Starmer is still favoured by the majority of constituencies there.

Across the UK, Starmer leads Sunak in 389 constituencies. The soon-to-be prime minister wins in just 127 constituencies, with ‘not sure’ prevailing in almost as many (116).

Rishi Sunak does not triumph in a single one of the 50 constituencies that form part of YouGov’s ‘Red Wall’ definition. Starmer wins in 31 of the 50, including Blyth Valley (+10), Burnley (+12), and Wrexham (+9). In the other 19, ‘not sure’ is the most common response.

YouGov interviewed over 12,000 voters across the country between 21st and 23rd of October 2022.

Constituency-level forecasts were estimated using the same method which correctly predicted the 2017 and 2019 General Elections.

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Y Tywysog Lloegr a Moscow
Y Tywysog Lloegr a Moscow
1 year ago

Can we have choices from other parties? Will PC, SNP, LD, Green not win any seats then?

1 year ago

Very misleading as regardless of popularity, Labour’s final vote count will end up being a lot less than 389 seats!

Last edited 1 year ago by SundanceKid
1 year ago

The ONLY difference between Starmer and Sunak is the amount of money they have in the bank.

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
1 year ago

I laughed out loud when Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies said how Rishy Sunak was a friend of Wales when he was part of a cabinet who attacked Welsh devolution, stole our EU Brexit powers , dissolved Welsh law, and passed legislation that interfered with Welsh Government competency with their Shared Prosperity Fund and Levelling Up.

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