All but one Welsh constituency prefers Keir Starmer over Rishi Sunak
All but one constituency in Wales prefers Keir Starmer over Rishi Sunak, a new interactive map based on polling results by YouGov has shown.
Of the 40 present constituencies in Wales, 39 favoured Keir Starmer while one – Montgomeryshire in the north of Powys – prefers Rishi Sunak.
But even there Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer are only separated by one percentage point, 35% to 34%.
Support for Starmer is highest in Cardiff Central at 52% to Rishi Sunak’s 31%.
Rishi Sunak fails to pick up any constituencies in Scotland, although there were two where ‘not sure’ is the favoured option.
“Support for Starmer over Sunak is particularly strong in both Scotland and Wales, with the new Tory leader failing to win a single seat north of the border and in just one in England’s westerly neighbour,” YouGov said.
Rishi Sunak does rather better in England but Keir Starmer is still favoured by the majority of constituencies there.
🗺️ NEW MRP | Which of the following do you think would make the best prime minister? (21-23 Oct)
— YouGov (@YouGov) October 24, 2022
Across the UK, Starmer leads Sunak in 389 constituencies. The soon-to-be prime minister wins in just 127 constituencies, with ‘not sure’ prevailing in almost as many (116).
Rishi Sunak does not triumph in a single one of the 50 constituencies that form part of YouGov’s ‘Red Wall’ definition. Starmer wins in 31 of the 50, including Blyth Valley (+10), Burnley (+12), and Wrexham (+9). In the other 19, ‘not sure’ is the most common response.
YouGov interviewed over 12,000 voters across the country between 21st and 23rd of October 2022.
Constituency-level forecasts were estimated using the same method which correctly predicted the 2017 and 2019 General Elections.
Support our Nation today
For the price of a cup of coffee a month you can help us create an independent, not-for-profit, national news service for the people of Wales, by the people of Wales.