An Independent Wales could invest billions more in public services – report
An independent Wales could afford to invest an extra £3 billion a year in public services, such as universal free childcare and public transport, according to a report by the Welsh think tank Melin Drafod.
The discussion paper, published today, comes to the conclusion that there is a “credible argument that Wales would face a deficit … that would make [it] as capable as the vast majority of European countries to be independent.”
The Melin Drafod research claims it would be prudent to improve Wales’ fiscal position by around 6-7% of GDP over a period of years through policy changes including:
increasing tax revenue levels to the European average, with major tax reforms, drug decriminalisation and taxing landlords;
changing the relationship with work and increasing the percentage of the population that is of working age, including by relaxing immigration rules;
reducing defence spending to the same level as Ireland;
delivering savings through the creation of a single integrated emergency service, fewer county councils and a significant reduction in the prison population.
It also suggests that, if negotiations with the rest of the UK followed international precedent and its policy changes introduced, Wales would have around £3 billion a year extra to invest.
The think tank proposes that money could go to projects such as free universal childcare and a program to decarbonise the transport, energy and housing systems.
Progressive state
Talat Chaudhri, Chair of Melin Drafod, the think tank which considers the implications of Wales becoming an independent nation, said: “Hopefully this paper will stimulate an even more detailed policy discussion about the path towards establishing Wales as an independent, successful and progressive state. I
“It is often said that Wales’ fiscal situation is one of the biggest obstacles by organisations trying to convince the public of the case for Welsh independence.
“The paper we are publishing today shows not only that there is a strong argument that Wales could afford independence, but that there is an opportunity to create a new society. A much fairer, greener and peaceful country than the one trapped in a failed and completely unfair UK economic system.”
Melin Drafod’s discussion paper is the result of consultation with a variety of experts.
Tegid Roberts, Founder of Banc Cambria, Cadarn and Director of Quantum Soup Studio, said: “This paper is not only an excellent summary of the work done to date on Welsh finances, but also a starting point for a much wider discussion about what the Welsh society and its economy should be.
“That wider discussion has the advantage of rejecting Westminster orthodoxy and starting afresh. It can consider a Welsh central bank and currency and it can also take a blank sheet to the welfare system and our tax system as well.
“At this stage nothing should be off the table other than the Welsh society should come first and its economy a function of that and not the other way around.”
Conversation starter
Mark Hooper, Founder of IndyCube and Banc Cambria added: “This paper, for me, is an important conversation starter. Wales needs a deep and challenging debate regarding the type of society we need, and the type of state that’s therefore required.
“The economy we need to deliver that gets constructed around the answers to those questions.
“This is a hugely exciting and invigorating time for us, as we build a new Wales; let’s avoid being restricted in our thinking with the stuff that we know doesn’t work. The independence movement must enable these important and defining conversations now.”
Melin Drafod is holding an independence summit tomorrow (28 January) in Brangwyn Hall in Swansea.
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It’s happening, more people are finally looking at what Cymru could look like as an independent country. The evidence is growing that we could be a very successful country. Our job in the Welsh independence movement is now to sell this vision to the Welsh public, show them there is a credible alternative to the Union.
I really do not believe Wales would be any worse off than it is now, if independent. We would at least, have control of our own priorities.Not have to go to Westminster with a begging bowl every year.
We wont win independence unless we can tell people how we think it would look – certainly we have to be able to offer something better than the current status quo (and the report from Melin Draford does that). Of course in the final analysis the people of Wales themselves would decide what a post independent Wales looks like.
Lol…i havent laughed so much in years 🤣 . Have you ever thought of doing your comedy act on the stage?
There are bad takes, and then there’s this comment.
Taken straight the Andrew RT Davies School of not reading or understanding the topic you’re commenting on.
Anyone starting a critique with the phrase “hammer and sickle nationalists” is either a a comedy writer or a complete idiot.
My money’s on the latter here.
Why not write a version of an independent Wales that would appeal to your own constituency of Lib Dem voters?
How hard can it be to come up with something that appeals to roughly the same population as a netball team?
Incorrect, you’ll find there is only one group of immigrants that ends up being bad for the language, and they aren’t from outside these isles. Most People that aren’t from Britain have no problem learning it.
Incorrect. Evidence pleas.
the current fiscal deficit is 20% of gdp.
It would take far too long to explain to you that this figure is incorrect, happy though you are to repeat dodgy statistics. Careful examination of ONS statistics and the legitimate removal from these statistics of costs that would not be incurred by a sovereign Wales (for example £2 billion for defence, more as a percentage of GDP that Russia!) provides a far more realistic picture. I, and others working independently of each other, calculate the deficit to be somewhere between 0.5% to 4% of GDP. The difference – as with any statistical analysis – is one of interpretation, remembering… Read more »
The fiscal gap is largely irrelevant post agreements with Westminster and our own sovereign fiat currency. Once independent, we should establish our own national debt – and the rUK will want to keep all of theirs because the liquidity it provides to their banks and businesses is too valuable. The national debt of the UK will never be repaid and it would be a disaster if it were.
The ” hammer and sickle ” phrase is so 2020. Remember when Torys here would tweet, ” @ Soviet Wales, and ” Welsh communists”, you need to keep up fella, even ART Davies has moved on.
“Crises in productivity and wealth inequality won’t be solved with ideas from the 80s. It’s not about a bigger pie – we need a different one” (Britain, here’s a plan: stop applying old fixes to new problems. And stop obsessing about growth | David Edgerton | The Guardian) UK has a problem with crumbling infrastructure, depressed productivity, wealth inequality and an ageing population. It’s likely that Wales’ economy initially shrinks following any vote for independence, especially it’s jumped to without serious preparation beforehand, and while it may lead to opportunities to spend what money there is in a better way,… Read more »
We have double standards when it comes to wales independence. Ppl support ukraine independence but not wales. Ppl supported leaving the EU but not wales leaving the union. We have ppl saying we cant survive on our own but yet there are independent countries out there with similar population. Some say wales us a burden on the uk but they fight to keep the union together. The welsh ppl should have the right to stand on their own two feet but there are ppl who are trying to cut the legs from under us. When not if but when we… Read more »