Anti-Tory pact would leave Conservatives with just one constituency in Wales – but also cost Plaid Cymru
A Labour-Lib Dem-Green Pact at the next Westminster election would leave the Conservatives with only one seat in Wales – but would also cost Plaid Cymru half of their seats.
A report prepared by Professor Andrew Blick, Professor of Politics and Contemporary History, King’s College London for the Constitution Society suggests that the Conservatives would lose every seat in Wales apart from Montgomeryshire.
The report is based on polling which asked voters from Labour, the Lib Dems and Greens how thy would vote if their first choice stood side as part of a pact.
Across the UK, a deal between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party at the next election could lead to an opposition landslide, with the Conservatives losing up to two-thirds of their seats, they said.
However, Plaid Cymru would also lose the seat of Arfon to Labour and Ceredigion to the Liberal Democrats, the polling projected.
In Wales, Brecon and Radnorshire would switch from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems, and the Vale of Glamorgan from the Conservatives to the Greens.
Ynys Môn, Clwyd South, Clwyd West, Delyn, Monmouth, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Vale of Clwyd, and Wrexham would switch from the Conservatives to Labour.
The large-scale poll was commissioned by the Constitution Society and looked at how the electorate would respond if Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens agreed not to stand against each other in England and Wales.
The poll, which was run by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus after the local elections earlier this month, found considerable public appetite for an electoral agreement between opposition parties.
According to current opinion polls, Labour might emerge as the largest party at a general election, but could still be short of a majority.
Given this, an electoral agreement with the Liberal Democrats and the Greens might seem an attractive option for Labour as it would avoid the need for SNP support in the event of a hung parliament, the Constitution Society said.
“There are various political and practical obstacles to bringing into being the pact we have modelled for this poll,” Professor Andrew Blick said.
“However, the results suggest that – if the three parties are willing and able to overcome these blockages – it could enable them to remove the Conservatives from power.
“What happened next would depend on how far the three parties had coordinated in advance. But it could involve policy commitments that might include a permanent change in the electoral system, and possibly a lasting change in the political balance of power in the UK.”
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