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Boris Johnson and David TC Davies among Tory casualties at next election says new poll

01 Jan 2023 3 minute read
Boris Johnson (L) Picture by Annika Haas (CC BY 2.0). David TC Davies Photo by Richard Townshend (CC BY 3.0).

A new poll suggests Labour is on target to win a majority of about 60 seats at the next General Election, with former PM Boris Johnson predicted to be among the high-profile casualties

Welsh Secretary David TC Davies is also projected to lose his seat along with defence secretary Ben Wallace, work and pensions secretary Mel Stride, transport secretary Mark Harper and Scottish secretary Alister Jack.

But the new poll of more than 10,000 people for the Best for Britain campaign group suggests Labour’s lead over the Tories may be more precarious than had previously been thought.

It warned that any tightening of the polls in the run up to polling day – expected in spring 2024 – could cost Sir Keir Starmer the election.

The finding is based on a survey of 10,010 people by pollsters Focaldata carried out around the time Liz Truss resigned in October, with a further “top-up” poll of 2,000 people after Mr Sunak became Prime Minister.

While the headline figures put Labour on course to win 517 seats in the new parliament, Best for Britain said that falls to 383 – representing a majority of just 28 – if the impact of the high number of “don’t knows” is factored in.

Timid Tories

It said its analysis suggests the bulk of the undecideds are likely to be “timid Tories” – as they closely resemble the age and education profiles of people who say they intend to vote Conservative – who could return to the Tory fold come polling day.

Best of Britain chief executive Naomi Smith said: “These findings make clear that we who want to see the back of this nativist, incompetent, sleaze-ridden Government can take nothing for granted.”

The findings will however hearten the Tories as the Government enters the new year faced with a mountain of difficult issues – from the continuing cost-of-living crisis through to the small boat Channel crossings and the war in Ukraine.

Best for Britain – which strongly opposed Brexit – also published the results of a further survey of 2,000 adults, which it commissioned from pollsters Opinium, which showed of those who intended to vote Labour, 44% thought Sir Keir was wrong to rule out joining a customs union with the EU as against 19% who thought he was right.

Ms Smith said: “By removing trade barriers with our closest neighbours and removing his own red lines, in one stroke Keir Starmer can solidify his electoral support and throw businesses and consumers a desperately needed lifeline.”

Such a call is however unlikely to sway the Labour leader who will not want to jeopardise his efforts to win back the Leave voting “red wall” seats which switched to the Tories at the last election.


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Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
1 month ago

Johnson out would be fabulous but not anywhere near as wonderful as the dethroning of the anti Welsh King of Monmouthshire.

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
1 month ago

What is also not mentioned is the further 90 seats where the Liberal democrats are in a good 2nd place.
The Lib Dem party have a good record to win in England winning 3 out of 3 by-elections in good swings without the baggage.

Dai Rob
Dai Rob
1 month ago

Fingers crossed the polls tighten a bit more….and then our Nicola holds the balance of power, in a hung parliament.
LOVE. TO. SEE. IT.

Rob
Rob
1 month ago
Reply to  Dai Rob

A hung parliament could also mean the Lib Dems pushing for proportional representation, but either way though I would be happy.

I suspect for these reasons the Tories would rather see Labour win an outright majority than for it to go to a hung parliament, because at least all they have to do is wait until the next time they are in power to undo all of Labour’s policies.

Paul
Paul
1 month ago

383 seats in a 650-seat chamber gives a majority of 116, not 28.

Paul
Paul
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul

Just checked the Best for Britain website – they say the number would be 353, so 383 is a typo, but they’re still wrong to say that gives a 28-seat majority. The majority would be 56.

Blinedig
Blinedig
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul

Still a tragedy that the Tories would still have a couple of hundred seats. What’s wrong with people?

Malcolm Jones
Malcolm Jones
1 month ago

Let’s hope the polls are correct and we get rid of that anti Welsh traitor from Wales i wonder if he will be made a Lord has a reward for being against anythinge that would be good for Wales???

dai ponty
dai ponty
1 month ago

The Tories are finished in Wales and also in the rest of the U K they will never make a come back they have done to much damage they will go the same way as the old LIBERAL PARTY after W W 1 to be confined to the history books being a former miner i thought the Thatcher governments where bad but since 2010 these public school buffoons have been the worst a tory free wales is a great start towards independence

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
1 month ago

I will savour the day when Wales hating Englishman David TC Davies and that New York Turk Boris Johnson get their P45 in the post.

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