Boris Johnson and David TC Davies among Tory casualties at next election says new poll

A new poll suggests Labour is on target to win a majority of about 60 seats at the next General Election, with former PM Boris Johnson predicted to be among the high-profile casualties

Welsh Secretary David TC Davies is also projected to lose his seat along with defence secretary Ben Wallace, work and pensions secretary Mel Stride, transport secretary Mark Harper and Scottish secretary Alister Jack.

But the new poll of more than 10,000 people for the Best for Britain campaign group suggests Labour’s lead over the Tories may be more precarious than had previously been thought.

It warned that any tightening of the polls in the run up to polling day – expected in spring 2024 – could cost Sir Keir Starmer the election.

The finding is based on a survey of 10,010 people by pollsters Focaldata carried out around the time Liz Truss resigned in October, with a further “top-up” poll of 2,000 people after Mr Sunak became Prime Minister.

While the headline figures put Labour on course to win 517 seats in the new parliament, Best for Britain said that falls to 383 – representing a majority of just 28 – if the impact of the high number of “don’t knows” is factored in.

Timid Tories

It said its analysis suggests the bulk of the undecideds are likely to be “timid Tories” – as they closely resemble the age and education profiles of people who say they intend to vote Conservative – who could return to the Tory fold come polling day.

Best of Britain chief executive Naomi Smith said: “These findings make clear that we who want to see the back of this nativist, incompetent, sleaze-ridden Government can take nothing for granted.”

The findings will however hearten the Tories as the Government enters the new year faced with a mountain of difficult issues – from the continuing cost-of-living crisis through to the small boat Channel crossings and the war in Ukraine.

Best for Britain – which strongly opposed Brexit – also published the results of a further survey of 2,000 adults, which it commissioned from pollsters Opinium, which showed of those who intended to vote Labour, 44% thought Sir Keir was wrong to rule out joining a customs union with the EU as against 19% who thought he was right.

Ms Smith said: “By removing trade barriers with our closest neighbours and removing his own red lines, in one stroke Keir Starmer can solidify his electoral support and throw businesses and consumers a desperately needed lifeline.”

Such a call is however unlikely to sway the Labour leader who will not want to jeopardise his efforts to win back the Leave voting “red wall” seats which switched to the Tories at the last election.