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Conservatives would lose key ‘red wall’ Welsh seats according to new YouGov poll of 10,000

04 Oct 2021 3 minutes Read
Sarah Atherton MP and Rob Roberts wewre elected as Conservatives to represent Wrexham and Delyn in 2019. Photo by David Woolfall, licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported

A new poll by YouGov shows the Conservatives would lose four ‘red wall’ seats in the north-east of Wales if an election was called today, with Anglesey also being too close to call.

YouGov’s MRP model, which predicted the 2017 and 2019 general election results with a high degree of accuracy, shows the party losing Wrexham, Clwyd South, Delyn and the Vale of Clwyd.

Anglesey is listed as “too close to call” according to the poll’s projections. If such a result came to pass the Conservatives in Wales, currently on 14 seats in Wales, would be down to nine or ten.

Delyn’s MP Rob Roberts currently sits as an independent after having the Conservative whip removed, after an independent panel found that he had acted inappropriately after he sought to engage in a relationship with a male member of his staff.

The model suggested that the Conservatives would lose 18 ‘red wall’ seats overall to Labour across England and Wales, with a further 14 seats that are too close to call.

‘Red wall’ refers to a set of constituencies – mainly in the north-east of Wales, Midlands, and Northern England – which historically tended to support the Labour Party but whose Brexit supporting constituents backed the Conservative Party in large numbers in 2019.

The MRP model infers local opinion from larger polls using age, gender, education, past votes and other demographic data. Almost 10,000 people were surveyed from September 17 to 28.

It suggests that Boris Johnson has lost ground even on Theresa May in the ‘red wall’. The poll shows him 7 points down on the 2019 general election, and two points down on 2017, when Theresa May lost her majority.

It’s not all good news for Labour however with Keir Starmer 10 points down on Jeremy Corbyn’s support in the red wall in 2017.

The Green vote is at 7 per cent, up from 1 per cent in 2019 and 2017.

Patrick English, YouGov’s political research manager, said: “Seat losses to Labour are a result of a decline in the Conservative vote but do not represent a recovery in the Labour vote share, which is largely unchanged since 2019.

“That suggests that Labour’s position remains tenuous too, and that the Tories still have the chance to bring red wall voters and seats back into the fold.”

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GW Atkinson
GW Atkinson
19 days ago

It disgusts me that in Wales anyone would vote for a foreign party, tory or labour, they aren’t Welsh and don’t care about our country. They only care about their political union with Scotland.

CJPh
CJPh
19 days ago
Reply to  GW Atkinson

I share your displeasure with the fact that many of our fellow countrymen regularly vote for foreign parties, but I won;t go as far as to claim they aren’t Welsh. The pro-indy movement within Labour in Wales and the growing number of people like me who try and make the liberal (and even the conservative) case for our separation need to come to the forefront. We can show those who vote blue (or the 23 people and one sheepdog who vote lib dem) that there is no partisan political ideology behind our will for an independent Cymru – it is… Read more »

David
David
19 days ago
Reply to  GW Atkinson

Don’t forget that the Green party is also based in a foreign country.

Barry Pandy
Barry Pandy
19 days ago
Reply to  David

The Green party supports Welsh independence.

Ex Plaid member
Ex Plaid member
19 days ago
Reply to  GW Atkinson

Would need Plaid to get their act together and be a party with wider appeal. Also needs to be serious about its bullying problem, but its a natural part of political parties so is probably beyond Plaid to resolve it itself.

Erisian
Erisian
19 days ago

Nice to see you are not refering to them as Welsh conservatives (and unionists) in this article. With their current attitudes to Wales it is an Oxymoron, and to be avoided.

Mick Tems
Mick Tems
19 days ago

If it’s any help in such a tiny ward: the by-election result in Tyn-y-Nant ward, Beddau, showed Labour romped home, with the Tories down 12 per cent and Plaid Cymru up six per cent.

Wrexhamian
Wrexhamian
19 days ago

The 2019 “Boris bounce” election was a one-off based on unique circumstances surrounding Brexit and resulting in the demolition of the Wal Goch in NE Wales.It’s unlikely to be repeated. Since Labour are floundering in England but not in Cymru, Welsh Labour are likely to recover those Welsh Westminster seats, although I still rate Carrie Harper’s chances of winning Wrecsam in the Senedd elections in 2021, possibly on the regional list.

Grayham Jones
16 days ago

The only army for wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 is The Free Wales Army start fighting for a new wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 stop being little Englanders and be proud to be welsh kick all English party’s out of wales that’s the Tories Labour and all Brexit party’s start fighting for your children and grandchildren future in wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

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