Conservatives would lose key ‘red wall’ Welsh seats according to new YouGov poll of 10,000
A new poll by YouGov shows the Conservatives would lose four ‘red wall’ seats in the north-east of Wales if an election was called today, with Anglesey also being too close to call.
YouGov’s MRP model, which predicted the 2017 and 2019 general election results with a high degree of accuracy, shows the party losing Wrexham, Clwyd South, Delyn and the Vale of Clwyd.
Anglesey is listed as “too close to call” according to the poll’s projections. If such a result came to pass the Conservatives in Wales, currently on 14 seats in Wales, would be down to nine or ten.
Delyn’s MP Rob Roberts currently sits as an independent after having the Conservative whip removed, after an independent panel found that he had acted inappropriately after he sought to engage in a relationship with a male member of his staff.
The model suggested that the Conservatives would lose 18 ‘red wall’ seats overall to Labour across England and Wales, with a further 14 seats that are too close to call.
‘Red wall’ refers to a set of constituencies – mainly in the north-east of Wales, Midlands, and Northern England – which historically tended to support the Labour Party but whose Brexit supporting constituents backed the Conservative Party in large numbers in 2019.
The MRP model infers local opinion from larger polls using age, gender, education, past votes and other demographic data. Almost 10,000 people were surveyed from September 17 to 28.
It suggests that Boris Johnson has lost ground even on Theresa May in the ‘red wall’. The poll shows him 7 points down on the 2019 general election, and two points down on 2017, when Theresa May lost her majority.
It’s not all good news for Labour however with Keir Starmer 10 points down on Jeremy Corbyn’s support in the red wall in 2017.
The Green vote is at 7 per cent, up from 1 per cent in 2019 and 2017.
Patrick English, YouGov’s political research manager, said: “Seat losses to Labour are a result of a decline in the Conservative vote but do not represent a recovery in the Labour vote share, which is largely unchanged since 2019.
“That suggests that Labour’s position remains tenuous too, and that the Tories still have the chance to bring red wall voters and seats back into the fold.”