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Conservatives face near wipe-out in Wales at General Election, new poll projects

21 Jan 2022 3 minute read
James Davies picture by David Woolfall (CC BY 3.0). Virginia Crosbie picture by Stacey Mutkin (CC BY-SA 4.0). Sarah Atheron picture by David Woolfall (CC BY 3.0).

The Conservatives would be left with only four seats if a General Election was held today, in a Labour landslide victor in Wales, a new poll has shown.

The Survation poll for 38 Degrees shows Labour leading with 43% across the UK – their highest vote share of the vote with the pollster since December 2017.

But things look even worse for Boris Johnson’s party in Wales, where they would lose 10 of their seats, left with just four. That would be their worst result in Wales since the 2005 election when Tony Blair was Prime Minister.

The monthly Survation tracker poll asked 11,000+ members of the public and has a breakdown for every seat in the UK.

It shows the Conservatives losing their grip on every seat in Wales apart from the Vale of Glamorgan, Brecon and Radnorshire, Montgomeryshire and Monmouth.

They would lose all of the seats they gained in 2019 including Ynys Mon, Wrexham, Delyn, Clwyd South, the Vale of Clwyd, and Bridgend.

Aberconwy, Clwyd West, Vale of Clwyd, Preseli Pembrokeshire, and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, would also be toppled.

That would mean big names like Welsh Secretary Simon Hart losing their seats.

“This loss of confidence in the Prime Minister and his government is echoing throughout his base,” Survation said.

“Our polling for 38 Degrees found perceptions of the government and Boris Johnson have taken a severe hit since November among their voters.

“Over half of Conservative voters in 2019 now see the current government as lacking accountability (52%), while over 6 in 10 think the government is dishonest (64%). These figures have increased by more than 10 percentage points since November and 6 percentage points since December in our polling for 38 Degrees.

This decline in Conservative voters’ perceptions is even more dramatic for Boris Johnson himself, with 7 in 10 (68%) of them saying the Prime Minister is dishonest, a massive increase since November (43%) and December (51%), the pollster said.

Boris Johnson is also seen as lacking accountability and leadership among his base, with well over half (56%) of Conservative voters from 2019 believing the Prime Minister does not hold himself accountable and 6 in 10 (59%) of them believing he does not show leadership, an increase from 44% in December.

Plaid Cymru would retain all four of their seats, the poll says, although Labour would run them close in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr by 33% to 34%.


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Phil
Phil
8 months ago

Unfortunately there won’t be a General Election today, despite all the wishful thinking.

Erisian
Erisian
8 months ago

It’s two years away – but let’s aim for their total annihilation. No half measures please.

Dave
Dave
8 months ago

I’m thinking lets get rid of the 4 that would remain, if Plaid or Labour voted tactically could we rid our country of #ToryLiars altogether, me I’d even vote LibDem if that was on the cards.

Llewz
Llewz
8 months ago
Reply to  Dave

You are a bigger man than me then!

In all seriousness, that definitely makes sense 👍

Wrexhamian
Wrexhamian
8 months ago

The almost complete removal of Tory MPs from Cymru looks a given, but what is interesting is that polls suggest that Plaid Cymru representation will not increase. The big beneficiary will, understandably, be Welsh Labour, and deservedly so, but I would have thought that Plaid would have a fighting chance in Ynys Mon and Anerconwy. And what is in the runes for our old friends the Lib Dems?

Rob
Rob
8 months ago

Also bear in mind by the time of the next election Wales will only have 32 seats and not 40. According to Electoral Calculus that would mean just Monmouthshire, and the 2 seats covering Powys would remain Tory. If Vale of Glamorgan merges with Cardiff or Bridgend then they will lose that one as well.

Grayham Jones
8 months ago

It’s time for a new wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 kick all English party’s out of wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 stop being little Englanders and be proud to be welsh start fighting for your children and grandchildren future in wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Gareth Jones
Gareth Jones
8 months ago

They poll says they will keep five seats that is five too many, electoral alliance anyone?

hdavies15
hdavies15
8 months ago

Wishful thinkers on a roll here. This is one of the many meaningless polls that get churned out for god knows what reason. The poll that matters has not yet been scheduled. Parties seeking a change need to start communicating their position now, with a touch more indication of what they really intend to do and a bit less window dressing and pontificating. How Wales changes for the better and how quickly are 2 of the many key questions. Do not get into a long winded process of slagging off the other parties because once the Tories dump Fatso they… Read more »

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
8 months ago

It would indeed be karma if those Conservative sellouts got their just deserts whenever there’s a General Election. It will be a day to savour.

Let’s hope one casualty will be hatemonger & professional liar David TC Davies of Monmouth. Wales very own Lord Haw Haw.

Llewz
Llewz
8 months ago
Reply to  Y Cymro

He is indeed a disgusting specimen.

Quornby
Quornby
8 months ago

Four left? Damn it!

Barry Pandy
Barry Pandy
8 months ago

With Johnson doing so badly and with such appalling approval ratings you would have thought the Welsh Tories would be lining up to be rid of him just as the Tories in the North of England and Scotland are. Why Andrew RT Davies is still so loyal is beyond me.

I can understand Hart’s loyality as he is a cabinet minister and as such he either stays loyal or resigns. Andrew R2D2 On the other hand is just a spineless coward.

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