Conservatives failing to win back Welsh voters after post-Truss slump

Rishi Sunak has failed to win back Welsh voters that abandoned the Conservatives during Liz Truss’s disastrous premiership.

According to a new YouGov poll, support for the Conservatives in Wales is up 2% but the party remains less popular than when Liz Truss was at the helm.

After Truss’s 45 days in office, Rishi Sunak took over and support for the Tory party was at just 18% – down by 5% – and support for the Labour Party was at its highest level in a decade.

The new poll, conducted for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, shows 20% of those who answered would vote Conservative, with 49% of respondents – down 2% on the previous survey, opting for Labour. Plaid Cymru, The Lib Dems, and Reform UK all put on 1% in the latest Westminster poll, while the Greens were down 1%.

Westminster voting intention:

Conservative – 20% (+2)

Labour – 49% (-2)

Lib Dem – 5% (+1)

Plaid Cymru – 14% (+1)

Reform UK – 9% (+1)

Green – 3% (-1)

Other – 1% (-1)

Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, told ITV Cymru: “Labour at the moment still look like they’re going to win half of the popular vote, which would still be a very strong, historic, performance if it happened at an election”.

“The Conservatives are still doing very poor compared to what they did even just 12 months ago. They’re hovering around 20%.”

“I think it’s shown how badly damaged attitudes towards the Conservative party were when Rishi Sunak took over.”

“People don’t flip flop between parties very quickly. Once they’ve made that decision it can be very difficult to win people back and that’s a real problem that Rishi Sunak faces.”

Senedd 

Welsh Labour is also polling at over 40% for the Senedd, with the Conservatives in third place behind Plaid Cymru. The Lib Dems and Labour recorded small falls in their support while Reform UK recored the biggest increase in support at 2%.

Senedd voting intention:

Conservative – 18% (+1)

Labour – 43% (-1)

Lib Dem – 4% (-2)

Plaid Cymru – 20% (no change)

Reform UK – 9% (+2)

Green – 4% (+1)

Other – 1% (-1)

Responding to the Senedd voting data, Dr Larner added: “From previous ITV polling, people don’t really know who the Conservative figures in Wales are and when it comes to the Conservatives, they tend to focus on what’s happening in London.

“That’s different with Plaid supporters and Labour supporters where the Welsh figures there and the Welsh parties are particularly important to them.”

YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,081 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between February 3 and February 7 for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University.