County’s ageing population putting pressure on care services

Dale Spridgeon, local democracy reporter

A county’s ageing population means more pressure on social services and fewer people to provide care, according to a new report.

Amid the fall in the county’s working age residents, it is feared there could eventually be a lack of working age people able to provide the care, according to Cyngor Gwynedd.

The perfect storm has been highlighted within a council report aimed at tackling and addressing ‘challenges’ faced in social care.

Llechen Lân

The council’s cabinet met this week, where they approved a decision to accept the results of the Llechen Lân (A Clean Slate) report, presented by Cabinet Member for Adults, Health and Wellbeing, Cllr Dilwyn Morgan.

The cabinet, agreed to adopt the strategic direction and action plan of Llechen Lân document, which aims to highlight, address and help mitigate future problems.

It was anticipated that the combination of “financial challenges, the impact of demographic challenges on human resources, and the impact of demographic challenges on the demand for services will create a situation of failure for older people’s services,” unless something is urgently done to address the situation, the report stated.

Overspending

Social care is one of the largest areas of expenditure for the council, with nearly 25% of its budget allocated to Adult Social Care in 2022/23. Despite several years of overspending in the area, waiting lists persist and there are an increasing number of older people facing delays in receiving home, residential or nursing care in Gwynedd – the council said.

After Cllr Morgan introduced the report, Corporate Director of Social Services Dylan Owen also gave an overview of the situation faced by Gwynedd and the report. He told the meeting that the number of working people in Gwynedd had reduced by 5,000 according to the Census.

There had also been a reduction in the number of children under 16 and the number of older people over 65 – and those over 85 – had “increased substantially” whilst the number of people able to do social care work was reducing, he said.

Shifting demographics

It was also anticipated that with the combination of shifting demographics and a shrinking workforce was likely to expand the gap in what local authorities are able to provide.

“It’s projected that the demand for social care will rise by 57% by 2043, while an additional 1,000 workers will be required to meet this growing need,” he said. “If we continue to have outward migration, and the increases in older people – the future is going to be challenging.”

He added: “We will need a thousand more carers in 20 years, than we need today.” Llechen Lân states that between the 2011 and 2021 censuses, Gwynedd’s population aged 65 and over rose from 25,100 to 27,300, reflecting an 8% increase.

“Population projections indicate that this upward trend will persist over the next two decades, with the figure expected to reach 32,500 by 2043.” The report also noted that Gwynedd’s working age (16-64 years old) population fell from 75,800 in 2011 to 70,700 in 2021.

“This equated to an average reduction of 42 people of a working age in Gwynedd every month over the decade.” During the same period the report also pointed to a 7% reduction in the under 16 population (from 20,900 to 19,400). Due to budget challenges the report noted “even if the workforce to provide the services were to miraculously materialise, the accompanying financial implications would be drastic”.

And that “the projected additional costs for traditional care services alone are estimated to reach £24.3m annually by 2043 (barring any inflationary increases)”.

‘Tipping point’

“The overarching message from Llechen Lân is that social services for older people in Gwynedd has reached a tipping point,” the council report said.

“Assuming significant additional funding and growth in working population figures are highly unlikely, the need for a change in provision and practice is essential.

Council leader Dyfrig Siencyn, said the matter was “an important issue” and was one that “required national attention,” and more money was needed to address shortfalls in funding for social care.

The chief executive Dafydd Gibbard added tht the report “highlighted a very serious problem” but the situation was “out of the council’s power to fix it alone.”

In a plea to young people who had left the county Cllr Craig Ab Iago said “it is difficult to avoid the fact of losing 80 young people week. If there are any young people who don’t live in Gwynedd now – come home! There are grants to help you come home”.