David TC Davies faces tightest election battle in Wales, says new poll
Martin Shipton
The tightest electoral contest In Wales will be in Monmouthshire between Welsh Secretary David Davies and his Labour opponent, according to the most detailed poll released in advance of the general election expected this autumn.
Mr Davies and Labour’s Catherine Fookes are both on 35% in the expanded version of the seat he has held since 2005, although she is said to have a lead of a fraction of 1%.
The poll was conducted by YouGov, using the so-called MRP method. MRP stands for “multi-level regression and post-stratification”, and is a form of modelling which allows the use of a national sample to work out accurate estimates of support for parties or candidates in small geographic areas.
In Wales, Labour would win 26 seats, Plaid Cymru four and the Conservatives two.
The election will see the number of MPs elected from Wales reduced from 40 to 32. At the last general election in 2019, 22 seats in Wales were won by Labour, 14 by the Conservatives and four by Plaid Cymru.
Reform UK
While Reform UK – the renamed Brexit Party – would win no seats in Wales, it would come a distant second in Aberafan Maesteg and Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney.
Across Britain, if an election were held now, Labour would win 403 seats, the Conservatives 155, the Liberal Democrats 49, the Scottish National Party 19, Plaid Cymru 4, the Green Party 1 and Reform UK none. There are 18 MPs elected from Northern Ireland and the Speaker holds the final seat.
Patrick English, YouGov’s director of political analytics, said: “The model is based on vote intention data collected and analysed by YouGov from 18,761 British adults interviewed between March 7 and March 27.
“These latest results push Keir Starmer closer toward repeating a Blair-level result for Labour, a full 27 years since Labour’s longest-serving prime minister first took office. In that election, Blair won 418 out of the available 659 House of Commons seats.
“By contrast, Rishi Sunak is now heading for a worse result than John Major’s 1997 total of 165 seats.
“The coming tidal wave projected by this model would sweep away several major Conservative figures. The most prominent casualty could be chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who is currently fractionally behind the Lib Dems in his Godalming and Ash seat. Science secretary Michelle Donelan is also currently trailing the Lib Dems in her Melksham and Devizes seat, and Michael Gove is just one point ahead in his Surrey Heath seat.”
The 32 seat predictions for Wales:
Aberafan Maesteg
Labour 48%; Reform 15%; Conservative 13%; Plaid Cymru 12%; Lib Dem 6%; Green 4%.
Alyn and Deeside
Labour 44%; Conservative 22%; Reform 15%; Plaid Cymru 10%; Lib Dem 7%; Green 2%.
Bangor Aberconwy
Labour 35%; Conservative 23%; Plaid Cymru 19%; Reform 10%; LibDem 7%; Green 4%.
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
Labour 51%; Reform 18%; Conservative 11%; Plaid Cymru 11%; LibDem 5%; Green 3%.
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
Conservative 29%; Lib Dem 26%; Labour 21%; Reform 11%; Plaid Cymru 9%; Green 2%.
Bridgend
Labour 38%; Conservative 26%; Reform 12%; Plaid Cymru 12%; Lib Dem 7%; Green 3%.
Caerfyrddin
Plaid Cymru 26%; Labour 23%; Conservative 22%; Reform 14%; Green 7%; LibDem 6%.
Caerphilly
Labour 38%; Plaid Cymru 21%; Conservative 16%; Reform 15%; LibDem 4%; Green 4%.
Cardiff East
Labour 55%; Conservative 14%; Lib Dem 12%; Plaid Cymru 10%; Reform 7%; Green 3%.
Cardiff North
Labour 49%; Conservative 22%; Plaid Cymru 12%; Reform 7%; LibDem 6%; Green 4%.
Cardiff South and Penarth
Labour 55%; Conservative 19%; Plaid Cymru 12%; Reform 7%; LibDem 5%; Green 3%.
Cardiff West
Labour 48%; Conservative 19%; Plaid Cymru 15%; Reform 8%; Lib Dem 6%; Green 4%.
Ceredigion Preseli
Plaid Cymru 31%; Labour 22%; Conservative 16%; LibDem 11%; Reform 11%; Green 6%.
Clwyd East
Labour 40%; Conservative 29%; Reform 12%; Plaid Cymru 10%; LibDem 7%; Green 2%.
Clwyd North
Labour 41%; Conservative 26%; Reform 13%; Plaid Cymru 12%; Lib Dem 5%; Green 2%.
Dwyfor Meironnydd
Plaid Cymru 44%; Labour 19%; Conservative 13%; Reform 11%; Green 8%; Lib Dem 4%.
Gower
Labour 43%; Conservative 23%; Plaid Cymru 15%; Reform 11%; LibDem 5%; Green 2%.
Llanelli
Labour 33%; Plaid Cymru 22%; Conservative 16%; Reform 14%; LibDem 4%; Green 4%.
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare
Labour 48%; Plaid Cymru 17%; Reform 14%; Conservative 13%; LibDem 5%; Green 4%.
Mid and South Pembrokeshire
Labour 38%; Conservative 31%; Reform 13%; Plaid Cymru 8%; LibDem 6%; Green 2%.
Monmouthshire
Labour 35%; Conservative 35%; Reform 11%; LibDem 9%; Plaid Cymru 7%; Green 3%.
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr
Conservative 31%; Labour 27%; LibDem 16%; Reform 14%; Plaid Cymru 7%; Green 2%.
Neath and Swansea East
Labour 45%; Conservative 16%; Plaid Cymru 15%; Reform 14%; LibDem 6%; Green 3%.
Newport East
Labour 50%; Conservative 20%; Reform 14%; Plaid Cymru 8%; LibDem 6%; Green 3%.
Newport West and Islwyn
Labour 44%; Conservative 22%; Reform 14%; Plaid Cymru 9%; LibDem 7%; Green 4%.
Pontypridd
Labour 43%; Plaid Cymru 19%; Conservative 16%; Reform 13%; LibDem 5%; Green 4%.
Rhondda and Ogmore
Labour 50%; Plaid Cymru 17%; Reform 14%; Conservative 10%; LibDem 5%; Green 4%.
Swansea West
Labour 51%; Conservative 17%; Plaid Cymru 12%; Reform 11%; LibDem 6%; Green 4%.
Torfaen
Labour 47%;Conservative 18%; Reform 16%; Plaid Cymru 10%; LibDem 5%; Green 3%.
Vale of Glamorgan
Labour 48%; Conservative 29%; Reform 10%; LibDem 5%; Plaid Cymru 5%; Green 3%.
Wrexham
Labour 41%; Conservative 26%; Reform 13%; Plaid Cymru 10%; LibDem 6%; Green 3%.
Ynys Mon
Plaid Cymru 31%; Labour 25%; Conservative 19%; Reform 13%; Green 6%; LibDem 4%.
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We can but pray that T.C. stands for TOTAL COLLAPSE.
I can not believe that the Aberavon area, following their Brexit vote and support of UKIP, and now witnessing the devastation of the local industry following such decisions , are now backing the renamed party “Reform” at 15%. It beggars belief.
“ As ye sow, so ye shall reap “
On the other hand 82% of Aberavon don’t want either Reform or the Tories.
While I don’t doubt that Monmouthshire is once again a very tight Labour/Tory marginal, this MRP is only marginally better than the previous one that was put out. The problem with these MRPs is that they assume a universal lead in all six hundred constituencies for Labour over the Tories and while that may well be the case the modelling doesn’t even begin to take into account other parties. That makes assumptions about the performances of other smaller parties without taking into account localised support for one or more of them against Labour. The modelling needs work across the board.… Read more »
Vote to remove the Cons.
But make sure you have the correct ID to vote!!!!!!!!!! This needs highlighting now by the press.
The particular situation in Caerfyrddin is obviously not taken into account.
Lets make Wales a Troy free nation. If this means holding your nose and voting tactically then so be it, especially if your in Powys or Monmouthshire.
Fake news look up there facebooks n twitters 💯🙌 the guy fixed my town the whole towns cheering on him frfr