Doctor whose evidence convicted Lucy Letby speaks out against statisticians who doubt her guilt

Martin Shipton

A Welsh doctor who provided the key evidence that convicted baby killer Lucy Letby has defended himself in a podcast against statisticians who suggest she may be innocent.

Letby, a neonatal nurse, was convicted of murdering seven infants and attempting the murder of seven others between June 2015 and June 2016. She was sentenced to life imprisonment with a whole life tariff.

Letby came under investigation following a high number of unexpected infant deaths at the neonatal unit of the Countess of Chester Hospital three years after she began working there.

Retired consultant paediatrician Dewi Evans, of Carmarthen, was the star expert witness in Letby’s prosecution, having identified her as the only medical professional who had the opportunity to commit the murders.

Podcast

Despite being refused leave to appeal, some believe her to be innocent. The journalists John Sweeney and Edward Abel Smith are currently hosting a podcast series about the case called Was There Ever a Crime?

In the latest episode, released on November 18, the pair challenge Dr Evans about his findings.

He tells them: “I’ve been quite astonished about the reaction to the verdicts. Lucy Letby was convicted of the murder of seven babies and convicted of the attempted murder of another seven. There are numerous other cases there where there is very compelling evidence of her putting babies in harm’s way.

“Over and above the troll stuff – ignore that – two groups of people have got themselves into a complete tizz about the case. First are the statisticians. The case had nothing to do with statistics. I’m not sure how many ways you can tell statisticians that the case had nothing to do with statistics.

“Secondly from neonatologists who had nothing to do with the case and should know better, who were not at the trial, did not see any of the clinical cases, did not read the statements from the local nurses and doctors, and are very unhappy that the trial went ahead.

“I think the worst bit of arrogance I’ve ever heard was the decision of 24 people to demand that the Thirlwall Inquiry [into the Letby case] be postponed. As far as I know, none of the 24 people had anything to do with the trial, didn’t know anything about the evidence – and in my opinion that’s complete hubris.”

Unfair

Responding to Sweeney, who quoted an academic statistician’s view that it was grossly unfair to look at the times Letby had been on shift with an opportunity to harm the babies without looking at ‘the bigger picture’, Dr Evans said: “We looked at the bigger picture. That’s important. I can’t get the statisticians out of their ivory towers. This is where they just don’t understand what the prosecution case was about.

“There was a consistent pattern. First of all, the death was unexpected. Secondly the death was unexplained. Any neonatologist will tell you that it’s very rare indeed for a baby on a neonatal unit to suddenly collapse and suddenly die, where the death is unexplained.”

Sweeney pointed out to Dr Evans that there were six inquests into the seven babies’ deaths and each one was said to be by natural causes. He asked Dr Evans whether the pathologist had been wrong. Dr Evans said: “I disagree with him. The autopsy reports were useful in that they ruled out infection in four of the six cases because there was no evidence of it. Two of the autopsies showed evidence of pneumonia. The other four showed no evidence of pneumonia or any other kind of infection.”

Sweeney pointed out that in three of the deaths there had been evidence of sepsis, adding: “It’s possible another scenario is not that there is a murderer, but this is a badly run unit and also there’s a sewage problem.”

Sewage

Dr Evans responded: “As far as the sewage problem is concerned, I don’t know when this occurred. If there was a sewage problem, it would not explain what caused the death of these babies.

“If any of the babies had acquired pseudomonas [bacteria] septicemia, you would expect them to deteriorate over a period of time as the pseudomonas got hold, and that would lead to significant changes in their clinical status – the need for more oxygen, irregular breathing habits, deterioration in oxygen saturation, blood tests becoming abnormal, changes in skin colour.”

Responding to Sweeney’s suggestion that it could have been a badly run unit, Dr Evans said: “I’m not sold on that. Several of these babies were resuscitated successfully. What has the sewage problem got to do with the fact that seven babies were murdered and seven babies were the victims of attempted murder over a period of 13 months, where there was no evidence of pseudomonas infection or of a serious pathogenic infection in most of them?”

When Sweeney again raises points made by a statistician, Dr Evans tells the podcast: “Time and time again the statisticians are just wrong. They are out of their depth. They do not understand what it is that leads to babies in the neonatal unit deteriorating, dying. Speaking to statisticians about this is a bit like speaking to a climate change denier or a Donald Trump supporter. It doesn’t matter what you tell them, they don’t want to know and that’s that.

“They are welcome to their opinion. I spent 30 years on a neonatal unit, developing a neonatal intensive care service from scratch in Swansea. Your professor of statistics in London I’m sure is a very intelligent person, but I doubt whether he’s spent 30 minutes in a neonatal unit unless one of his kids was a premature baby.”

The podcast series Was There Ever a Crime? is available free of charge on all the usual channels.