Every constituency in Wales thinks the UK’s trading relationship with the EU should have a higher priority than that with the US

Martin Shipton

Residents of every constituency in Wales and across Britain believe that the UK should prioritise trade relations with the European Union rather than with the United States, a megapoll has found.

The MRP survey of almost 15,000 people by YouGov for the Best for Britain thinktank shows more people in every constituency in England, Scotland and Wales back closer arrangements with the EU rather than more transatlantic trade with Washington. MRP polls use large data samples to estimate opinion at a local level.

All 32 seats in Wales showed sizeable leads for prioritising trade links with the EU rather than the US. The leads for the EU over the US ranged from 18 percentage points in Clwyd North, Mid and South Pembrokeshire and Torfaen to 32 points in Cardiff East.

Small numbers of voters thought other countries should be prioritised in trade terms, including China 4%, Japan 3%, India 2% and Saudi Arabia 1%, with 20% saying they didn’t know.

Clacton

Even in Nigel Farage’s seat of Clacton, more people think the UK is better off trading more with its neighbours on the continent than with the US under the Reform UK leader’s ally Donald Trump.

In Llanelli, where Reform was only 1,500 votes short of taking the seat from long-serving Labour MP Dame Nia Griffith in last year’s general election, voters who thought trading with the EU should be the top priority were 19 points ahead of those who thought the trade relationship with the US was more important.

Overall the poll found that 46% of respondents across Britain said the EU should be the UK Government’s top priority when it comes to trade, whereas less than half that number (21%) opted for the US.

The findings come as the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, told the Observer newspaper that Brexit has harmed the UK economy and that she is determined to claw back some of the lost gross domestic product (GDP) by reducing trade frictions for UK small businesses wherever possible.

The Chancellor discussed possible ways to improve trade with EU finance ministers and others at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week. She enthused about one specific proposal, saying it was “great”, made by the EU’s new trade chief responsible for post-Brexit negotiations, Maroš Šefčovič , who floated the idea of the UK joining the Pan-Euro Mediterranean convention (PEM). The PEM is a set of common rules for sourcing parts and ingredients for use in tariff-free trade.

‘Better deal’

Ms Reeves said: “They would not have made those suggestions a year or two ago because they knew they did not have a UK government that was interested. So the fact that they are putting those things out there shows there is a better deal to be had than the one we have at the moment. We look forward to exploring those options with them.”

Keir Starmer has, however, made it clear that Britain will not re-enter the European single market or customs union, the consequence of which is that goods traded by UK companies to and from the EU face time-consuming and costly delays at borders as checks are conducted.

In addition, UK citizens are no longer able to travel to work in the EU as they were under freedom of movement rules that apply to member states.

Tariffs

President Trump has threatened to impose heavy tariffs on imports to the US, which if he carries out the threat will lead to a trade war. Some hold out hopes for a free trade deal between the UK and the US, but that would likely mean this country having to accept imports of food such as chlorinated chicken and hormone-injected meat that breach current UK and EU regulations.

Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, said: “Trade doesn’t have to be either/or but it’s clear that when it comes to priorities, from Cairnryan to Clacton and Newport to Newcastle, Britain wants a closer relationship with the EU first.

“With Trump threatening new tariffs as soon as [this] week, the government should listen to voters and break down trade barriers with our largest market before pursuing deals elsewhere. That’s how Starmer can meet his growth ambitions, ease price rises for UK consumers and give British businesses a fighting chance in an increasingly protectionist world.”

Blaenau Gwent Labour MS Alun Davies said: “The poll results are entirely predictable. It’s been clear for years that Brexit has failed to deliver the economic benefits that were promised, and that the UK has been marginalised both in terms of trade and diplomacy, with our status marginalised in the eyes of the world.

“People are ahead of politicians on this and have changed their mind about Brexit. It’s time for the UK Government to catch up and recognise that the only realistic future for the UK is as a leading member of the EU, and not to pretend that we can be a satellite of the US or go on some wild goose chase seeking trade deals in the Far East.”

Common sense

Plaid Cymru’s Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts said. “Gaining unfettered access to the single market and customs union is simply economic common sense.

“With President Trump back in the White House and threatening to impose punitive tariffs on exports to the US, Keir Starmer and his Labour government should be looking to forge closer economic ties with Europe as a matter of urgency.

“The [poll] findings show that the public are in favour of prioritising trade with the EU over the US, so what is the Prime Minister waiting for?

“Plaid Cymru has always defended and promoted our nation’s economic interests, and we will do everything in our power to prevent Wales from becoming a casualty of Trump’s potentially devastating trade wars.”

Poll results for every Welsh constituency:

Aberafan Maesteg: EU 40% USA 20%

Alyn and Deeside: EU 42% USA 21%

Bangor Aberconwy: EU 45% USA 19%

Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney: EU 41% USA 17%

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe: EU 45% USA 22%

Bridgend: EU 43% USA 20%

Caerfyrddin: EU 44% USA 20%

Caerphilly: EU 42% USA 20%

Cardiff East: EU 47% USA 15%

Cardiff North: EU 49% USA 19%

Cardiff South and Penarth: EU 47% USA 16%

Cardiff West: EU 47% USA 17%

Ceredigion Preseli: EU 48% USA 17%

Clwyd East: EU 44% USA 22%

Clwyd North: EU 40% USA 22%

Dwyfor Meirionnydd: EU 45% USA 17%

Gower: EU 45% USA 20%

Llanelli: EU 41% USA 22%

Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare: EU 41% USA 19%

Mid and South Pembrokeshire: EU 41% USA 23%

Monmouthshire: EU 46% USA 22%

Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr: EU 42% USA 21%

Neath and Swansea East: EU 42% USA 20%

Newport East: EU 41% USA 19%

Newport West and Islwyn: EU 42% USA 21%

Pontypridd: EU 42% USA 19%

Rhondda and Ogmore: EU 40% USA 19%

Swansea West: EU 43% USA 18%

Torfaen: EU 40% USA 22%

Vale of Glamorgan: EU 43% USA 22%

Wrexham: EU 43% USA 20%

Ynys Môn: EU 43% USA 20%