Ex-minister Lee Waters warns Welsh Labour it’s in danger of losing power in wake of Gething crisis

Martin Shipton

A former minister whose abstention in a crucial vote was partly responsible for a Senedd motion expressing no confidence in First Minister Vaughan Gething being passed has warned Welsh Labour that it’s in danger of losing power at the next Senedd election unless it regains a sense of purpose.

In a blog post addressed to members of his constituency party in Llanelli, Lee Waters writes: “There has been a big disagreement within Welsh Labour. There has not been a ‘witch-hunt’ against Vaughan Gething, but there has been a genuine conflict of values. Now there is an appetite to quickly move on, but I think there’s a real danger that in shutting down discussion we will neither understand nor learn the lessons of what has happened.

“As uncomfortable as it will be, I think we need a proper debate about the future direction of Welsh Labour. Circling the wagons around a ‘unity candidate’ may bring some short-term relief, but it will do nothing to address the fundamental need to renew in office.”

Donations

Mr Gething resigned as First Minister on July 16 following months of negative publicity about his decision to accept donations totalling £200,000 from a convicted criminal and his admission that he deleted iMessages during the Covid crisis because they were disclosable under freedom of information legislation. He announced his intention to stand down after four Cabinet members quit, saying they had no confidence in him.

On Sunday July 21 Jeremy Miles, one of the Cabinet members who resigned, said he would not be standing in the Welsh Labour leadership to succeed Mr Gething. Instead he endorsed Health Minister Eluned Morgan, who will be standing on a “party unity” ticket.

In his blog, Mr Waters writes: “After the collapse of the Labour Party in Scotland Jonathan Powell, the PM’s Chief of Staff through the whole Blair period in office, said that Scottish Labour had become a hollow tree – all it took was someone to come along and push it for it to fall. Nobody wants to hear this at the moment but this could well apply to Welsh Labour too.

“There’s nothing inevitable about any of this. The difference between us and Scottish Labour in 2011 is that we have a long-record of devolved governments to be proud of, and a proven ability to stand up for Wales.

“But the voters aren’t daft, and the warning signs are clear enough for those who want to look for them in the general election result. Whereas the Westminster voting system this time flattered us, the new more proportional voting system we’ll be using in Wales will be far less forgiving if our support levels don’t get back beyond the 30% threshold. The last YouGov poll put us at 27% at a Senedd election – just 4 points ahead of Plaid.

“The d’hondt voting system [in effect a closed list system, where people vote for a party rather for individual candidates] we’ve legislated for will actively work against us if our numbers stay at that level and a generation in the wilderness awaits.

“That’s where we’re heading as I write, and people are panicking and so the ‘we must unite’ banner is quickly pulled up the flagpole and the call has gone out to rally round. My worry is that a superficial unity is in fact counter-productive. We have to be prepared to do the hard work of remaking our unity based on a real consensus of approach. Not a backroom deal to avoid having to go there.”

Error of judgement

Giving his view about Mr Gething’s acceptance of £200,000 from a waste company owned by businessman David Neal, who has received two suspended prison sentences for dumping toxic sludge in the Gwent Levels protected landscape, Mr Waters states in his blog post: “From my point of view the situation could have been salvaged at several points if he had been willing to confront his own error of judgement. But at every stage he compounded it. And even to the last sought to deflect blame onto others.

“I’ve never thought Vaughan Gething was dishonest or dishonourable. But he showed terrible judgement which the longer he refused to concede did undermine him in people’s minds. In the YouGov poll published two days before the general election voters were asked how well they thought he was doing. 0% sent ‘very well’, and only 12% said fairly well.

“It is clear that Vaughan very sincerely does not believe that he did anything wrong. And for me that was the fundamental problem.

“One of the reasons why the last three months has been so painful in the Welsh Labour Party is that the schism that has surfaced has revealed a genuine tension in values. I literally felt sick when I felt compelled to speak out against what I saw as ‘norm spoiling’ behaviour; and when my cry of pain was ignored I made myself ill with the thought of endorsing this amorality in a confidence vote. I couldn’t do it, and didn’t do it.

“I drafted a private note to Vaughan which in the end I didn’t send as he hadn’t responded to any of my messages, but it summed up how I felt: I know you think you are being held to a higher standard than others. I honestly don’t – unless you are comparing donations at a UK level that we have rightly condemned.

“It is a terrible argument to make, and one contradicted by your decision to advise the UK party that they should not keep the underspend. If it was a problem for them to use it, why wasn’t it a problem for you? The argument that you won’t be involved in any decisions is disingenuous and beside the point. It reinforces the view that we are slippery, venal and insincere.

“The polls now clearly show that this has cut-through and people feel you should not have taken the donation, and having taken it should give it back. The way you have dealt with the situation has revealed further character traits that clash with the values I expect from a leader.’

“Everyone has to look at themselves and what they’ve done”, Vaughan Gething said in his first interview after he announced he couldn’t carry on. Sadly he was directing this at others.

“We now have to try and come together and heal. But let’s learn the lessons of these torrid few months – the best way to resolve disagreements is to address them openly and honestly. People don’t like divided parties, but they like dishonest ones even less.”

Nominations for the Welsh Labour leadership close at noon on Wednesday July 24.