Ex-minister Lee Waters warns Welsh Labour it’s in danger of losing power in wake of Gething crisis
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Martin Shipton
A former minister whose abstention in a crucial vote was partly responsible for a Senedd motion expressing no confidence in First Minister Vaughan Gething being passed has warned Welsh Labour that it’s in danger of losing power at the next Senedd election unless it regains a sense of purpose.
In a blog post addressed to members of his constituency party in Llanelli, Lee Waters writes: “There has been a big disagreement within Welsh Labour. There has not been a ‘witch-hunt’ against Vaughan Gething, but there has been a genuine conflict of values. Now there is an appetite to quickly move on, but I think there’s a real danger that in shutting down discussion we will neither understand nor learn the lessons of what has happened.
“As uncomfortable as it will be, I think we need a proper debate about the future direction of Welsh Labour. Circling the wagons around a ‘unity candidate’ may bring some short-term relief, but it will do nothing to address the fundamental need to renew in office.”
Donations
Mr Gething resigned as First Minister on July 16 following months of negative publicity about his decision to accept donations totalling £200,000 from a convicted criminal and his admission that he deleted iMessages during the Covid crisis because they were disclosable under freedom of information legislation. He announced his intention to stand down after four Cabinet members quit, saying they had no confidence in him.
On Sunday July 21 Jeremy Miles, one of the Cabinet members who resigned, said he would not be standing in the Welsh Labour leadership to succeed Mr Gething. Instead he endorsed Health Minister Eluned Morgan, who will be standing on a “party unity” ticket.
In his blog, Mr Waters writes: “After the collapse of the Labour Party in Scotland Jonathan Powell, the PM’s Chief of Staff through the whole Blair period in office, said that Scottish Labour had become a hollow tree – all it took was someone to come along and push it for it to fall. Nobody wants to hear this at the moment but this could well apply to Welsh Labour too.
“There’s nothing inevitable about any of this. The difference between us and Scottish Labour in 2011 is that we have a long-record of devolved governments to be proud of, and a proven ability to stand up for Wales.
“But the voters aren’t daft, and the warning signs are clear enough for those who want to look for them in the general election result. Whereas the Westminster voting system this time flattered us, the new more proportional voting system we’ll be using in Wales will be far less forgiving if our support levels don’t get back beyond the 30% threshold. The last YouGov poll put us at 27% at a Senedd election – just 4 points ahead of Plaid.
“The d’hondt voting system [in effect a closed list system, where people vote for a party rather for individual candidates] we’ve legislated for will actively work against us if our numbers stay at that level and a generation in the wilderness awaits.
“That’s where we’re heading as I write, and people are panicking and so the ‘we must unite’ banner is quickly pulled up the flagpole and the call has gone out to rally round. My worry is that a superficial unity is in fact counter-productive. We have to be prepared to do the hard work of remaking our unity based on a real consensus of approach. Not a backroom deal to avoid having to go there.”
Error of judgement
Giving his view about Mr Gething’s acceptance of £200,000 from a waste company owned by businessman David Neal, who has received two suspended prison sentences for dumping toxic sludge in the Gwent Levels protected landscape, Mr Waters states in his blog post: “From my point of view the situation could have been salvaged at several points if he had been willing to confront his own error of judgement. But at every stage he compounded it. And even to the last sought to deflect blame onto others.
“I’ve never thought Vaughan Gething was dishonest or dishonourable. But he showed terrible judgement which the longer he refused to concede did undermine him in people’s minds. In the YouGov poll published two days before the general election voters were asked how well they thought he was doing. 0% sent ‘very well’, and only 12% said fairly well.
“It is clear that Vaughan very sincerely does not believe that he did anything wrong. And for me that was the fundamental problem.
“One of the reasons why the last three months has been so painful in the Welsh Labour Party is that the schism that has surfaced has revealed a genuine tension in values. I literally felt sick when I felt compelled to speak out against what I saw as ‘norm spoiling’ behaviour; and when my cry of pain was ignored I made myself ill with the thought of endorsing this amorality in a confidence vote. I couldn’t do it, and didn’t do it.
“I drafted a private note to Vaughan which in the end I didn’t send as he hadn’t responded to any of my messages, but it summed up how I felt: I know you think you are being held to a higher standard than others. I honestly don’t – unless you are comparing donations at a UK level that we have rightly condemned.
“It is a terrible argument to make, and one contradicted by your decision to advise the UK party that they should not keep the underspend. If it was a problem for them to use it, why wasn’t it a problem for you? The argument that you won’t be involved in any decisions is disingenuous and beside the point. It reinforces the view that we are slippery, venal and insincere.
“The polls now clearly show that this has cut-through and people feel you should not have taken the donation, and having taken it should give it back. The way you have dealt with the situation has revealed further character traits that clash with the values I expect from a leader.’
“Everyone has to look at themselves and what they’ve done”, Vaughan Gething said in his first interview after he announced he couldn’t carry on. Sadly he was directing this at others.
“We now have to try and come together and heal. But let’s learn the lessons of these torrid few months – the best way to resolve disagreements is to address them openly and honestly. People don’t like divided parties, but they like dishonest ones even less.”
Nominations for the Welsh Labour leadership close at noon on Wednesday July 24.
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Mr Waters offers what strikes me as a coolly accurate analysis of recent events in Welsh Labour, but I doubt that it’ll be well received or even appreciated within a party which has historically often tended towards uncritical tribalism and an arrogant assumption of political entitlement.
It will be clear how well these comments have been received when we see what position Lee has on the list for the next Senedd elections. If he decides not to stand for re-election that could also suggest that a clear message has been sent from the ‘tribalism’ faction who are very unforgiving. The quote ‘dying in ditches’ rather than accepting a Miles victory from an unidentified supporter of Vaughn Gething last week comes to mind.
I’m old enough to clearly remember the times back in the ’70s and ’80s when Welsh Labour’s tribalism and arrogant assumption of entitlement to govern even alienated sufficient of the voters in Labour supporting heartlands such as Merthyr Tudful and the communities which comprised the former Cwm Rhymni District Council area to a degree that for a few spells they returned Plaid-controlled councils. It appears that some in Welsh Labour still have that same mindset. Labour don’t have a majority in the Senedd, so they simply have to form alliances to get business done at all. Even less can they… Read more »
Labours decline has nothing to do with my unpopular policies or my donations from Sustrans. Says Mr. Speedbump.
Perhaps some reflection and self-awareness on his part is also required? I agree with a 20mph default speed limit. However, the disastrous way it was originally rolled out by one Lee Waters is at the moment possibly the biggest reason that the Labour Party at the next Senedd election are facing difficulties.
In office Lee Waters was just as blinkered and arrogant as VG. He says of VG’s demise “….. the situation could have been salvaged at several points if he had been willing to confront his own error of judgement. But at every stage he compounded it.” “….he showed terrible judgement which the longer he refused to concede did undermine him in people’s minds.” Shades of his own defects.
479,000 people aren’t going to forget what he did, another huge error of judgement. The priorities still of this Labouring Welsh Government, are to put the urgent issues aside while tinkering around the edges of ” let’s be different to England” syndrome.
The revolving door of non elected leaders is one thing that they are on a par with.
That seems to sum things up quite well. Mr Gething failed as first minister because he was not the right person for the job. His management of the situation from the outset showed poor judgement and lack of empathy. My concern is that there appears to be a number of influential members who could not see what was happening and so proved that they have similar failings. From what I understand of the new voting system if I vote Labour there is no guarantee that I am not voting to allow these members to install one of their gang. I… Read more »
To the MS charged with Cymru’s relationship with the international community other than Modi’s India…
Could you please make representation to the Government of Greenland that they not be Japan’s lackey and release Paul Watson the skipper of Sea Shepherd at once…
Although Martin Shipton has summarised a number of salient points from Lee Waters’s courageous analysis of the Vaughan Gething debacle, it is essential to read the whole of it (amanwy.blogspot.com) to understand the full range of issues that it raises. Waters explains, for example, how the spending on VG’s leadership campaign amounted to “trying to work around the party spending rules to colossally outspend his opponent”. The strategy, according to Lee Walers, was to take advantage of the loophole that excludes “staffing costs” from the £45k limit, and to draft in outside experts to run the campaign’s communications, at a… Read more »
“My cry of pain”!
The Welsh political class reaches out – after first reaching in! “It’s all about me!”
Labour’s Regional managers complain the punters are now deeply restive, there hasn’t been any relevant product on the shelves for years, the shop is threadbare, but they know their own future prospect is in fact just shelf stacking beans & cornflakes.
Labour UK nationally yesterday (in coordinated PR ) warned that unless “we deliver” the right will surge. Welsh Labour excitedly say, “We’ve got a lovely Baroness all the way from Ely, the plebs will fall over!”
Rejoice.
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You’d swear with Lee Waters that Wales was the property of Welsh Labour and it was their god given right to rule over us in perpetuity? UK Labour ran on the election soundbite “change”. We need change alright. Change from Labour. We must oust Welsh Labour as Welsh Government in 2026 for a fresh start. They have not only run out of ideas but are now ineffectual as they will not and cannot fight our corner against authoritarian ruler Keir Starmer & UK Labour in London. I see no light at the end of the tunnel for Wales but more… Read more »
The Labour party in Wales are only interested in staying in power. Hopefully not for much longer