Farage ‘says Reform should only have a Senedd coalition if with the Tories if the Tories are the junior partner’

Martin Shipton

Nigel Farage has informed senior members of Reform UK in Wales that they should only contemplate entering a Welsh Government coalition with the Conservatives if the Tories are the junior partner, we have been told.

Recent polls have shown Reform in contention for becoming the leading party after the next Senedd election in May 2026.

The party’s fortunes have been greatly enhanced by the introduction of a new, wholly proportional electoral system in tandem with the increase in the number of MSs from 60 to 96.

Convinced

Some of Reform’s officials are convinced that the party will win more seats than any other party – a situation made more possible by the sharp drop in support for Labour since the general election in July 2024.

The fact that Reform is seriously contemplating such success from a starting point where they have no representation at all at the Senedd is indicative of the current level of political volatility in Wales and Britain as a whole.

Reform won five seats in England last July, but none in Wales and Scotland, although in Llanelli the party came within 1500 votes of defeating long serving Labour MP Dame Nia Griffith.

Under the Senedd’s new Closed List electoral system, Wales will be split into 16 “super constituencies” with six MSs elected from each of them.

Reform has yet to select its candidates, but that process is due to start within a few months. It is understood that the party intends to have a rigorous selection process, to avoid as much as possible choosing candidates who will cause embarrassment in the run-up to the election. The idea of standing as a Reform candidate will likely be seen as an attractive proposition by people on the far right, many of whom have criminal convictions or have expressed unacceptable views on social media.

Caerphilly

Nation.Cymru has been told that Mark Reckless, the former UKIP MP and MS, is hopeful of standing in Caerphilly at next year’s Senedd election. He recently refused to confirm his intentions when we asked him how he would reconcile standing for Reform, which does not advocate ending devolution, with his previous candidacy for the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party.

Mr Reckless has had a politically promiscuous career, having begun as a Tory MP in Kent and then defected to UKIP. After losing his seat in the 2015 general election, he came to Wales, winning a regional seat in South East Wales at the National Assembly election the following year. Although seven UKIP Assembly Members were elected,the group soon fell apart in acrimony. Mr Reckless was allowed to attend Welsh Conservative group meetings, although he was barred from rejoining the party. He later led a small Brexit Party group at the Senedd, before joining the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party. He was heavily defeated at the 2021 Senedd election.

We have been told by a reliable source that Mr Reckless has been telling people that “Nigel” will only allow Reform to go into coalition with the Conservatives if the Tories are the junior partner.

Clearly any question of such a coalition would depend on the mathematics of the election result. While a Reform / Conservative deal is feasible, some would argue that Labour and Plaid Cymru between them would have a better chance of forming a majority. All predictions should be treated with caution, especially so far in advance of the election.

Anglocentric

While many people in Wales support Mr Farage, there are many who dislike him. Those who support an independent Wales as well as others on the left, and even some Conservatives, are unlikely to view favourably Mr Farage’s Anglocentric views on how the Welsh Government should be constituted.

Blaenau Gwent Labour MS Alun Davies said: “Farage isn’t interested in Wales. He represents Clacton in Essex when he isn’t in the US. He just sees it as a place to further his own interests elsewhere.

“Reform is not a party in the normal sense. It’s a private company in which he has the majority of the shares.

“He has a history of falling out with people, and that applies to others in the parties he has been involved with. When UKIP won seven seats in 2016, the group didn’t last long and they fell out spectacularly between themselves. All they were interested in was taking the money. Their contribution to Welsh democracy was zero, and that’s what would happen again if Reform gets Members elected to the Senedd next year.”