Fertility rate in Wales drops to new record low

The total fertility rate across Wales and England dropped to a new record low last year, with Wales seeing the most dramatic decline – while the number of live births fell to the lowest in nearly five decades

While fertility rates across the two nations have been in overall decline since 2010, the rate in 2023 fell to 1.44 children per woman, which the Office for National Statistics said is the lowest value since records began in 1938.The rate was down from an average of 1.49 children per woman over their lifetime in 2022, and has decreased most among women aged 20 to 24 – down 79% from 181.6 live births per 1,000 women of this age group in 1964 to 38.6 in 2023.Some experts have suggested influencing factors could include economic uncertainty with the cost-of-living crisis, and difficulties finding a partner – as well as more people deciding not to have children.

Wales sees biggest drop

The average age of mothers remained stable at 30.9, while fathers’ average age increased slightly from 33.7 in 2022 to 33.8 last year.The biggest drops in the overall total fertility rate were in Wales (1.46 to 1.39) and the north west of England (1.53 to 1.46).London (1.39 to 1.35), the North East (1.47 to 1.43) and the West Midlands (1.62 to 1.58) saw the smallest decreases.The fertility rate is defined as the average number of live children a group of women would have if they experienced the age-specific fertility rates throughout their childbearing life.

Higher rate of stillbirths in Wales

In Wales, Newport had the highest fertility rate last year (1.63) and Cardiff had the lowest (1.16).

In England, Luton in Bedfordshire had the highest fertility rate in 2023 among local authorities in England (2.01), followed by Barking & Dagenham in London (2.00), Slough in Berkshire (1.93) and Pendle in Lancashire (1.90).

The City of London had the lowest rate (0.55), followed by Cambridge (0.91), Brighton & Hove in East Sussex (0.98) and Westminster in London (1.00).

A total of 12 of the 25 local authorities with the lowest rates in 2023 were in London.

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Prof Bassel H Al Wattar, associate professor of reproductive medicine at Anglia Ruskin University, described the downward trend in fertility and birth rates as “worrying yet persistent”, which he said might be explained by the cost-of-living crisis, as well as a reduction in available NHS funding for fertility treatments such as IVF.

In July, a report by the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) found fertility treatment numbers in 2022 increased on pre-pandemic levels but that the proportion of IVF cycles funded by the NHS in the UK fell fallen to the lowest level since 2008.

Professor Melinda Mills, professor of demography and population health at the University of Oxford, said: “People are actively postponing or forgoing children due to issues related to difficulties in finding a partner, housing, economic uncertainty, remaining longer in education and particularly women entering and staying in the labour force.

“Some individuals also actively make the choice to remain childfree.

“However, there is evidence that postponing having children to later ages when the partners are less able to conceive results in increases in involuntarily childlessness as well.”