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First poll of Wales since Liz Truss made PM puts Conservatives in ‘electoral wipe-out territory’

25 Sep 2022 3 minute read
Liz Truss. Picture by PA / Henry Nicholls.

The first poll of Wales since Liz Truss became Prime Minister puts the Conservatives “close to a 1997-style electoral wipe-out” according to an expert.

ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s latest opinion poll reveals that the majority of people in Wales don’t trust Liz Truss’ government to make the right decisions for the country.

The Barn Cymru poll, conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, shows 66% of people lack faith in the new PM’s government.

Although 12% of those surveyed thought Truss – who won the Conservative Leadership contest on September 6 – would make a good prime minister, nearly half of the respondents thought she’d be a poor or terrible PM.

Looking at Westminster voting intentions, the poll has Labour on its highest share of the vote since March 2018 and the Conservatives on their lowest since June 2016. This brings the gap between the parties now to a substantial 23 point lead for Labour, the highest in almost a decade.

Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, said: “If the Westminster voting intention figures were to play out in a real general election, the Conservatives in Wales are close to a 1997-style electoral wipe-out territory.

“In Senedd voting intentions, we see a similar pattern with Conservative figures dropping to their lowest levels since the summer of 2019, although there are more modest changes for Labour here.

“Plaid Cymru return to being the second largest party in the constituency and list votes, though this is less a result of their numbers growing but more the Conservatives considerable drop.”

Westminster Voting Intention

Conservative: 23% (-3)

Labour: 46% (+5)

Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)

Plaid Cymru: 15% (-1)

Reform UK: 5% (+1)

Green Party: 3% (-1)

Other: 3% (+1)

Senedd Constituency Voting Intention

Conservative: 20% (- 4)

Labour: 40% (+ 3)

Liberal Democrats: 6%

Plaid Cymru: 22% (+ 1)

Reform UK: 5%

Green Party: 3% (-2)

Other: 4%

‘Insight’

Owain Phillips, ITV Cymru Wales’ Programme and Digital Editor added: “This poll is the first time we’ve surveyed Welsh respondents since Liz Truss became Prime Minister and it suggests she’s got work to do in convincing voters here.

“We’re pleased to be working with Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre who again have provided valuable insight and expertise in interpreting the results of the poll.”

Barn Cymru is a collaborative partnership between ITV Cymru Wales, the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, and the leading polling agency YouGov. The poll aims to provide an insight into people’s beliefs, attitudes and opinions and to gain real-time feedback on public views in Wales.

YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,014 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between September 20-22 for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University.


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Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
2 months ago

How I long for a return to the 90’s when the political map of Wales was almost entirely red and green. A beautiful thing. Hopefully it can go one better by eliminating every single tiny spot of blue.

I Humphrys
I Humphrys
2 months ago

All Indy minded parties must work hard now. Even modest gains will be noticed. The public should be carroted to Indy Insistence. This requires skilled work by Gwlad and Plaid C, togethe with Indy Labour.

Last edited 2 months ago by I Humphrys
Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
2 months ago
Reply to  I Humphrys

I agree.

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
2 months ago

Who says Christmas is celebrated too early nowadays. Great news!! I’m sticking out the bunting already in preparation for the Tory wipeout in Wales. Might even have mince pie and pull a cracker while I’m at it. 🥳 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Christine
Christine
2 months ago
Reply to  Y Cymro

Me too can not wait for the Tory wipe out the soonthe better

David Charles pearn
David Charles pearn
2 months ago

They’ve cooked their goose, I couldn’t vote for those charlatans if they were the only party in the general election I’d rather take my chances on my own 😉🤣🤣.

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
2 months ago

The recent UK budget will only make more inequality and since people will have less money therefore less to spend we will head into a deeper recession. This is short term even for wealthy people and private pensions contributors as share earnings, income & dividends will fall causing share prices to fall. Think about it. That they have blocked The Office for Budget Responsibility from scrutiny of their plans (Tory budget plans). If they cannot be transparent about your plans for the economy, you shouldn’t be trusted to run it. It surprises me that the Tories haven’t completed disappeared for… Read more »

Peter Jones
Peter Jones
2 months ago

It’s the shame the Labour Party are so useless as well. We don’t have any parties to vote for that aren’t screwing up the country

Maglocunos
Maglocunos
2 months ago

Come on Plaid Cymru and Llafur Cymru, time for a strategic alignment in Ynys Môn and Get Virginia Gone!

Ex Plaid member
Ex Plaid member
2 months ago

Should be a wake up call for Plaid. Has it given up?

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