First poll of Wales since Liz Truss made PM puts Conservatives in ‘electoral wipe-out territory’
The first poll of Wales since Liz Truss became Prime Minister puts the Conservatives “close to a 1997-style electoral wipe-out” according to an expert.
ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s latest opinion poll reveals that the majority of people in Wales don’t trust Liz Truss’ government to make the right decisions for the country.
The Barn Cymru poll, conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, shows 66% of people lack faith in the new PM’s government.
Although 12% of those surveyed thought Truss – who won the Conservative Leadership contest on September 6 – would make a good prime minister, nearly half of the respondents thought she’d be a poor or terrible PM.
Looking at Westminster voting intentions, the poll has Labour on its highest share of the vote since March 2018 and the Conservatives on their lowest since June 2016. This brings the gap between the parties now to a substantial 23 point lead for Labour, the highest in almost a decade.
Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, said: “If the Westminster voting intention figures were to play out in a real general election, the Conservatives in Wales are close to a 1997-style electoral wipe-out territory.
“In Senedd voting intentions, we see a similar pattern with Conservative figures dropping to their lowest levels since the summer of 2019, although there are more modest changes for Labour here.
“Plaid Cymru return to being the second largest party in the constituency and list votes, though this is less a result of their numbers growing but more the Conservatives considerable drop.”
Westminster Voting Intention
Conservative: 23% (-3)
Labour: 46% (+5)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Plaid Cymru: 15% (-1)
Reform UK: 5% (+1)
Green Party: 3% (-1)
Other: 3% (+1)
Senedd Constituency Voting Intention
Conservative: 20% (- 4)
Labour: 40% (+ 3)
Liberal Democrats: 6%
Plaid Cymru: 22% (+ 1)
Reform UK: 5%
Green Party: 3% (-2)
Owain Phillips, ITV Cymru Wales’ Programme and Digital Editor added: “This poll is the first time we’ve surveyed Welsh respondents since Liz Truss became Prime Minister and it suggests she’s got work to do in convincing voters here.
“We’re pleased to be working with Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre who again have provided valuable insight and expertise in interpreting the results of the poll.”
Barn Cymru is a collaborative partnership between ITV Cymru Wales, the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, and the leading polling agency YouGov. The poll aims to provide an insight into people’s beliefs, attitudes and opinions and to gain real-time feedback on public views in Wales.
YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,014 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between September 20-22 for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University.
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