Building fewer houses would drive up prices and drive away our youth

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daffy2012
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“But this simply isn’t how the housing market in the UK works. If it did, then there would be no housing crisis in the south-east of England; the people priced out of the market in Kent would simply move to Birmingham, or Liverpool, or Bradford – cities that have thousands of empty homes, at depressed prices.” But that’s exactly what they are doing; 100,000 Londoners moved out last year alone. And they are moving to places which are cheaper than London including Wales. So really, your article is nonsense since if doesn’t understand the fundamental nature of the housing market… Read more »

Royston Jones
Guest

You talk of “the planning inspectorate in Cardiff” without, apparently realising that this is simply a branch office, a charade, for the Planning Inspectorate which answers to the Department for Communities and Local Government in London, and which implements an Englandandwales housing strategy. The ‘Welsh’ Government – in order to con the indigenes – is allowed to pretend that it has some control over the Planning Inspectorate. It doesn’t. Your argument that even without new builds people from England will still migrate and therefore put greater pressure on the existing stock is flawed. The new properties for north Gwynedd and… Read more »

Dyfrig Jones
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Dyfrig Jones

The article that you link to discusses people leaving London for middle-class towns within commuting distances of London. There is no mass exodus from the south-east of England to the rest of the UK.

If you want to list the other falsehoods in my argument, I’d be happy to respond to them.

Tal Mac
Guest
Tal Mac
Royston Jones
Guest

I’m agreeing with you that people will move from England whether we build more houses or not. The remedy lies in either building up the indigenous economy and ensuring that its benefits flow to locals to buy those properties or else imposing ownership restrictions. The first of those is beyond the wit of both the ‘Welsh’ Government and Cyngor Gwynedd, the second would be relatively simple to implement. The article and the image I linked to tell us that the northern coastal strip is earmarked for an A55 commuter corridor, which is obviously designed to attract buyers for new properties… Read more »

daffy2012
Guest
Dyfrig Jones
Guest
Dyfrig Jones

@Royston Jones

I’m fully aware of the situation with the planning inspectorate, but decided to try and simplify for the sake of journalistic brevity.

I don’t deny that new properties will be sold to immigrants. My argument is simply that these immgrants will continue to come to Wales, and will buy the existing housing stock in the absence of new properties. And that on the whole, this is a worse outcome.

Show me evidence that restricting the housing stock restricts immigration, and I will retract this article.

Edi
Guest

Illogical Nonsense Im afraid…..if you built CHEAP SOCIAL HOUSING….young people would not need to move away….follow scandinavian models of community house ownership

You are foolowing the mantra of the worst forms of American capitalism…………Duw a’n cato!

Dyfrig Jones
Guest
Dyfrig Jones

@Edi Many of the registered social landlords in north Wales are leading on alternative ownership models for local people, and Cyngor Gwynedd has been developing proposals for community land trusts for some time. But to do this, you need development land to be allocated in the LDP.

Edi
Guest

Bending over backwards without a fight…..

Tal Mac
Guest
Tal Mac

The author fails to capture that you’d have to go Poland to find a poorer region than west Wales. How would great politicians approach this situation? I would think that they would have a grasp of the long term consequences. The current financial climate is increasingly looking like the mother of all recessions, although you wouldn’t think with the underreporting of this. Credit debt at record high, national debt one of the largests in the western world(can’t even pay back the interest on the bankers bailout), bank of E quantative easing to try to keep the uk afloat, we’ll be… Read more »

Dyfrig Jones
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Dyfrig Jones

@ Tal Mac Again, I think that you’re missing the point that I’m making. My argument is that immigration is not produced by the housing market, and neither can it be stopped by restricting the stock of available development land. All you are doing by restricting the development land is creating conditions where local communities are less well-equiped to deal with the effects of immigration.

Again, if you can show me evidence that a housing glut causes immigration, I will retract this article.

Tal Mac
Guest
Tal Mac

If Rhosneigr is only occupied for 1/4 of the year, then I’d say a nationalist party would be arguing that there’s already enough housing.
I don’t particularly care about the finer points of this argument, I’m concerned that as a nation with no real powers, we’re defenceless.
It’s interesting that none of the points above brought an emotive response out of a plaid man – perhaps bangor uni won’t be impacted by the things I stated? Of course it will. It already has been.

Dyfrig Jones
Guest
Dyfrig Jones

Again, I’ll have to check the details in the morning, but I don’t think that there are any new houses allocated in the LDP for Rhosneigr. This is precisely why the plan is a good one; it restricts development in areas that are already under pressure from second homes, choosing instead to concentrate development in areas of economic activity that are less appealing to holiday home buyers. So more new houses for Llangefni, but none for Rhosneigr.

(Apologies if I’m wrong about Rhosneigr – I’m more familiar with the Gwynedd side of the plan).

Tal Mac
Guest
Tal Mac

I want local people to eventually have the choice to live somewhere like Rhosneigr. Seeing as though base level entrance to the housing market is 5.6 x the median wage for Môn. People in the higher quartile of wages struggle to enter.
I’m too more familiar with Gwynedd, but I think Abersoch is a lost cause.

David Jones
Guest
David Jones

‘when someone wants to buy a house, they look for areas that have housing gluts (and therefore depressed prices), and move to those areas to take advantage of the lower prices.
But this simply isn’t how the housing market in the UK works’

Insert ‘holiday’ before ‘house’ and price doea become an issue. That and good views. Good views, don’t have to, but in Wales usually means lack of jobs. Of course retirees don’t mind thr lack of work. Low prices, good views, no jobs. Ideal retirement/second home location.

Dafydd Thomas
Guest
Dafydd Thomas

Mr Jones argues that it is NOT true that when someone looks for a house they look for somewhere where prices are lower “depressed” and take advantage of the lower prices. He says “this simply isn’t how the housing market in the UK works”. This flies in the face of basic economics. Those who are free to move (without a particular job in a particular place) I.e. People who retire in England and move to Wales. These do move move to cheaper places and in large numbers. A tested theoretical principle. See 2011 census figures. Over40% of over 65s in… Read more »

Dyfrig Jones
Guest
Dyfrig Jones

@Dafydd Thomas I’ll have to check, but my recollection of the projected immigration figures on which the LDP is based show that the vast majority of immigrants to Gwynedd and Mon during the life of the plan do come from outside the UK – this is largely because of the university, the hospital, the port at Holyhead, Wylfa etc. Only a small minority are projected to come from within the UK. I can find the numbers in the morning.

Joniesta
Guest
Joniesta

Dyfrig, you have left out the most important part of this argument in my view. The watering down of those policies that Gwynedd have fought for over the years. Removing the requirement for the language to be considered and weighting whilst deciding on a significant development is a massive mistake. It doesn’t follow any principles on sustainable development; in essence it removes the need to consider the impact of any future large development on our language and heritage. Plaid Cymru should have made a stand and said that the most precious gift that we have as Welsh men and women… Read more »

Dyfrig Jones
Guest
Dyfrig Jones

There has been no watering down of the language policy. In fact, it has been strengthened through the LDP’s PS1, and will be strengthened again when the Supplementary Planning Guideline is written.

glasiad
Guest
glasiad

To start, the title of this article – Building Fewer Houses Would Drive Up Prices – promotes a well accepted but profoundly false myth – that the price of housing is driven by supply and demand. The price of property is driven by unregulated financial markets and banks. The price of houses will always rise to accommodate the amount of bank credit (our mortgage debts) made available. With deposit requirements shrinking to virtually nothing and the introduction of interest-only payment mortgages, we are all becoming not home owners but home renters with our landlords being the banks. In short, supply… Read more »

Richard Jenkins
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Richard Jenkins

This would make a lot more sense if planning authorities did not abrogate responsibility for building these house to market forces alone? This means that as the necessarily large tracts of planning land come up for acquisition the local small builder or developer is easily frozen out of the process by the huge financial resources of the volume house building companies. These companies rarely buy locally as their materials are sourced centrally to keep costs down. So no advantage to local merchants. If they employ locally it’s often at cut throat rates that leave subcontractors on minimum wages and unable… Read more »

Al
Guest

Dyfrig argues that the Development Plan recognises that migrants will continue flock to Gwynedd because of the University/Hospital at Bangor, and these people will always be able to out-bid locals in buying property.Fair point in itself. But leaving aside the fact that the University sector is a huge bubble just waiting to burst because of completely unsustainable student projections and sheer greed on the part of the sector itself since 1997: let’s just imagine for one moment that say up to 3,000 people move in to the county during the life of the plan( up to 2026). Most of these… Read more »

Dyfrig Jones
Guest
Dyfrig Jones

The figure of “30% at best” is wrong. Development on many of the smaller sites will only be permitted if 100% of the proposed houses are affordable. The 10% – 30% figure is for larger development sites. If you raised the percentage to 60%, then many developers would not build, claiming that it made the proposed site unviable. However, it is worth noting that there are a number of non-profit developers who build in Gwynedd, and who offer much higher percentages of affordable houses than the minimum stipulated in the plan. The LDP makes land available for them as well… Read more »

Cymreigiwr
Guest
Cymreigiwr

It’s really not rocket science! The plan should be for the bulk of the new housing to specifically cater to the needs of local people, especially young families and low income groups, while also being aesthetically and socially sensitive to the local area. There are a variety of ways this can be achieved, including Council/RSL housing, which is the obvious solution. What is not acceptable is facilitating corporate house-builders to continue putting up huge numbers of nicely profitable executive homes that exacerbate the problematic demand from outside the area, in return for a paltry minimum number of supposedly “affordable” units… Read more »

Anne Greagsby
Guest
Anne Greagsby

The author of this article should do some research before demanding more houses be built for spurious reasons as the Welsh government demand! Local people most in need of a home can’t afford the market price of housing, no matter how many houses are built. Lack of mortgage finance availability for first-time buyers and the weakness of this group’s income growth has been mainly responsible for the slump in the home ownership rate. Building new homes doesn’t necessarily mean homes for those who need them. Given the huge inequalities in wealth, the market is more likely to furnish more second… Read more »

Dyfrig Jones
Guest
Dyfrig Jones

I totally agree that more needs to be done to help finance house purchases for locals, and to tighten the rules on affordability. I hadn’t seen the LSE study, so thanks for bringing it to my attention.

Dafydd Thomas
Guest
Dafydd Thomas

@Dyfrig Jones. those immigration figures which you promised for this morning would be much appreciated.

WeDoItToOurselves
Guest
WeDoItToOurselves

“Oi, you retired couple in Cheshire. Redrow has built some lovely houses and flats in Bangor/Caernarfon/Felinheli. They cost 1/3 of your current property so you can sell up and move in and live off the profit. You don’t have to worry about Brexit or your pension or the NHS, unlike if you moved to Spain. The whole estate was built with you in mind, so they’ll be dozens of other people from Cheshire there, so you can ignore the local lingo. Only 90mins drive away from your family as well. Did we mention the area is beautiful as well? Bring… Read more »

Joniesta
Guest
Joniesta

Dyfrig, mae’r newid i’r cymal iaith yn warth llwyr. Nid yw’n cefnogi unrhyw ethos cynaladwyedd wrth wthio pwysigrwyddd yr iaith i’r neilltu. Prin iawn oedd y son am y cymal iaith. Pam?? Edrycha ar y linc isod o’r papur Bridgewater Mercury sydd yn profi effaith adeiladu y pwerdu Niwcliar yn fanno. http://www.bridgwatermercury.co.uk/news/13788869.Hinkley_could_see_house_prices_rise_in_Bridgwater/. Gofyna wedyn i chdi dy hyn beth fydd canlyniad effaith ar drigolion Ynys Mon a Gwynedd. Diffg tai ffordiadwy, tai cymdeithasol, di gartrefedd. Beth yw’r cynllun wedyn?? Pa fyddiant a ddaw o’r 8,000 o dai os nad ydynt o fewn cyrraedd i bobol cyffredin. Ar ddiwed y dydd… Read more »

Trailorboy
Guest
Trailorboy

A few points about the houseing developers. I imagine Redrow will get a chunk of new house builds and this is my experience of Redrow marketing in South Wales, where 40% ate Welsh speaking. Firstly all marketing eas in English, purposefully directed towards English speaking incomers. Only English medium primary schools were listed and promoted, despite the second closest and equal third closest being Welsh medium. The people in the marketing suites could not even pronounce the name of the village properly. Have there been assurances on how things will be marketed? Will the names of the developments be quintissentially… Read more »

Sibrydionmawr
Guest
Sibrydionmawr

Cytuno cant y cant! I think that we need to start thinking about starting a shift to providing only Welsh medium education in Wales. It would have to be done sensitively, and it might take a fair amount of time. i’m reminded by one of the Welsh medium school campaigns in Cardiff where one of the detractors arguments against building a replacement for an existing, but grossly overcrowded Welsh medium school was that it would see the closure of a local English medium school, due to lack of numbers. This surely indicated a lack of Welsh medium places, as this… Read more »