Support our Nation today - please donate here
News

Labour have comfortable lead over Tories in new Barn Cymru Poll

03 Jun 2024 3 minute read
Photo Henry Nicholls/PA Wire

ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s latest opinion poll has revealed that Labour are significantly ahead of the Conservatives in Wales, entering the second week of the General Election campaign.

The Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, revealed that 45% of people in Wales would vote for Labour in the upcoming General Election, up three points from a previou poll in December, whilst 18% would choose to vote Conservative

The poll also shows that Reform UK are polling stronger than Plaid Cymru, with over a quarter of those who voted for the Tories in 2019 now backing Reform.

A third of Plaid Cymru voters in 2019 say they’ll be backing Labour in the upcoming election.

In response to a question about the performance of the Welsh Party Leaders, 57% believe that new First Minister Vaughan Gething is performing badly, with only 15% of the view that he’s performing well.

Westminster voting intention:

Labour – 45% (+3)

Conservative – 18% (-2)

Reform UK – 13% (+1)

Plaid Cymru – 12% (-3)

Lib Dem – 5% (-2)

Green – 4% (+1)

Other – 1%

Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, said: “These new figures are consistent with trends seen across the UK and add to the growing evidence that Labour are heading for a landslide victory in Wales winning slightly less than half of all votes cast, while the Conservatives are fighting to avoid an historic defeat and the loss of all Westminster representation in Wales.

“Rather it is the total collapse of the Conservative electoral coalition in Wales, with their vote halving from 36% in 2019 to just 18% in this poll.

“As it stands, the odds of a return to the 1997-2005 period of no Conservative MPs in Wales are roughly the same as a coin flip.

“The story for Plaid Cymru is a familiar one for them at Westminster elections, with voters switching in large numbers to the Labour Party. There is some evidence that this switch is a tactical one however, with their Senedd vote intention shows a substantial transfer of these voters back into the Plaid Cymru fold.

“Reform UK are another beneficiary of Conservative collapse with 3 in 10 2019 Conservative votes intending to vote for them. While many expect Reform’s actual vote share to be smaller than these numbers suggest, this might not necessarily be the case.

“This poll suggests the Reform vote maybe more ‘sticky’ than previous similar elections.”

Controversy

Adrian Masters, ITV Cymru Wales’ Political Editor added: “Labour in Wales is continuing to enjoy a strong performance in our opinion poll. It will come as a welcome boost to a party that has been buffeted by controversy over candidate selection and criticism of the Welsh Labour leader.

“The poll shows that the Conservatives in Wales remain in difficult territory, with many of their previous supporters choosing to back Reform UK.

With support for Plaid Cymru slipping below that of Reform UK, this will be an interesting trend to keep an eye on as the campaign progresses.”

Barn Cymru is a collaborative partnership between ITV Cymru Wales, the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, and the leading polling agency YouGov.

YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,066 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between 30th May – 3rd June.

Full details of the poll are available here.


Support our Nation today

For the price of a cup of coffee a month you can help us create an independent, not-for-profit, national news service for the people of Wales, by the people of Wales.

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
22 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Adrian Meagher
Adrian Meagher
16 hours ago

Polling 16 year olds when they cannot yet vote in Westminster elections yields less confidence in the results. The sooner we allow 16+ voters in all elections the better.

Rhddwen y Sais
Rhddwen y Sais
13 hours ago
Reply to  Adrian Meagher

Yes and reduce the age for alcohol consumption to 16 and the right to drive and serve in armed forces combat units. Mature enough to vote, mature enough for adult life.

Rhufawn Jones
Rhufawn Jones
10 hours ago
Reply to  Rhddwen y Sais

The UK is the only country in Europe which recruits child soldiers. Gwarthus

Richard Davies
Richard Davies
12 hours ago
Reply to  Adrian Meagher

If you take a look at the survey document (follow the link at bottom of article) you will see that it states 16 & 17 year-olds were excluded from questions relating to westminster.

Mr Williams
Mr Williams
16 hours ago

This is very worrying. Plaid Cymru should be very concerned. You have got to wonder why, after many years of being an established party, people in the south east or north east (very patriotic Welsh men and women) won’t vote for them. It looks like they won’t even win in Ynys Mon, which should really be a comfortable win for them. They had a leader from the valleys (Leanne Wood), who had a good chance of raising their profile there and winning more seats – and they turned on her! Big mistake, in my opinion. They should ask themselves, what… Read more »

Last edited 16 hours ago by Mr Williams
Paul ap Gareth
Paul ap Gareth
15 hours ago
Reply to  Mr Williams

Reform benefit from a disproportionate media coverage in the UK media.

Mr Williams
Mr Williams
15 hours ago
Reply to  Paul ap Gareth

That is very true. However, I also think they are saying the ‘populist’ things that are winning lots of people over. We need to be very worried about their rise. They are English nationalists who would happily end devolution, and introduce policies that would make lives miserable for ordinary Welsh people. I think we need a Welsh party that is not afraid to take on the uncomfortable issues that many people are concerned about. Like it or not, many people are concerned about issues like rising energy prices, high taxes, the housing crisis, immigration, ‘wokism’, gender theory being pushed in… Read more »

Rhddwen y Sais
Rhddwen y Sais
13 hours ago
Reply to  Mr Williams

English Nationalists love devolution they want to see it extended to Independence for Wales. Unionists like the Labour Party are a different kettle of fish. I think you are confused.

Mr Williams
Mr Williams
5 hours ago
Reply to  Rhddwen y Sais

Not at all confused, I fear that Reform UK are the type of English nationalist, albeit labelled as ‘UK’ patriots, who would like to end devolution. It was their policy in the last Senedd election, to my knowledge they haven’t changed on this.

Last edited 5 hours ago by Mr Williams
Adrian
Adrian
4 hours ago
Reply to  Mr Williams

You mean ‘populist’ things like humans can’t change sex, and you cannot be ‘born in the wrong body’? Things like Net Zero will bankrupt the country and achieve nothing?

Mr Williams
Mr Williams
3 hours ago
Reply to  Adrian

Yes. Not all ‘populist’ ideas are bad (although some certainly are), but they certainly do stir emotion. I fear that Mr Farage and co. are exploiting these to raise their profile.

Rhddwen y Sais
Rhddwen y Sais
13 hours ago
Reply to  Paul ap Gareth

You mean they get their message across well. They have far more coverage on Nation Cymru than Plaid.

Richard
Richard
14 hours ago
Reply to  Mr Williams

A very “ simple” set of not completly off the mark thoughts matched with an obvious set of personel views drawn from experiences that appear not to be too widley based on fact ?

Mr Williams
Mr Williams
13 hours ago
Reply to  Richard

Why do you assume that my experiences are not based on fact? You don’t know me.

I have said clearly that the issues I have written about may not be comfortable, but they are issues that many people are concerned about, like it or not. Apart from one of the issues, I didn’t give any personal views. I don’t accept your criticism. I don’t agree with you that the issues are “simple” either.

Last edited 13 hours ago by Mr Williams
Annibendod
Annibendod
14 hours ago

Well, we’ve seen people who comment here saying that they will vote Labour to get the Tories out. I’ve a degree of sympathy with that perspective but I don’t agree with it. It’s a negative vote which hands Labour a mandate to carry on as they are. Lord how we need a change! The positive vote is for Plaid Cymru. The more that do, the closer we get to that tipping point and a change in public perception. A vote for any Unionist party is a travesty for Wales. We should all be working to make sure that Wales is… Read more »

Rhddwen y Sais
Rhddwen y Sais
13 hours ago
Reply to  Annibendod

Plaid are not seen as inclusive by some Welsh people. My uncle Tom a miner 100% lawn used to go to Aber for every Plaid conference and plant himself in the Skinners to make that point.

Rhddwen y Sais
Rhddwen y Sais
12 hours ago
Reply to  Rhddwen y Sais

That should be llawn

Richard Davies
Richard Davies
12 hours ago

I downloaded the survey to try to find out any margin of error and there isn’t one stated anywhere in the document! Surely there should be a margin of error?

I can’t believe that there are Plaid Cymru voters, according to the survey, that would vote against Cymru becoming an independent country!

Some other survey responses are equally depressing!

Note: It does say that 16 & 17 year-olds were excluded from questions relating to westminster elections.

Last edited 12 hours ago by Richard Davies
R W
R W
11 hours ago

The way elections seem to go these days, Rhun needs to start falling off paddleboards (or some other similar gimmicks) to get his party noticed!! However, a massive Savanta/Daily Telegraph poll of 60,000 people just five days ago had Plaid ahead in four seats, which was completely ignored by Nation.Cymru.

Steve A Duggan
Steve A Duggan
3 hours ago

This is going to be a tough contest for Plaid (though I think it will still finish it with four MPs) because there will be a lot of tactical voting, voting to get the Tories out. The next election. In five years time will be more important in many ways as we’d have had five years of a Labour administration and that isn’t really long enough to repair 14 years of Tory damage. That election will probably be more evenly contested and a better chance for Plaid to finally break through.

R W
R W
1 hour ago
Reply to  Steve A Duggan

Agreed, but Labour are so far ahead in the polls that there is no need for any Plaid supporters to vote tactically at this election, since they will end up with a handsome majority anyway. It’s hard to believe that there is anyone out there who can’t see that.

Howie
Howie
6 minutes ago

Labour take the valleys vote for granted the only campaigning I can recall in my area of Islwyn was Kinnock when he was vying to be PM as the media were shadowing him everywhere.
People should vote what is best for Wales not best for UK parliament, history has shown Wales has been let down time and time again by whoever is in govt in Westminster.

Our Supporters

All information provided to Nation.Cymru will be handled sensitively and within the boundaries of the Data Protection Act 2018.