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Labour heading for big victory in Wales as Gething’s approval ratings slump to new low

01 Jul 2024 4 minute read
Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer (left) and Vaughan Gething ( right) on the General Election campaign trail. Photo Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire

Martin Shipton

More in Common’s final Wales-only poll of the general election campaign finds Labour set to dominate again in Wales, despite Vaughan Gething’s approval ratings slumping to new lows

It shows Labour ending the campaign on a 42% vote share, and the Conservatives falling from 36% of the vote in 2019 to just 22% of the vote ahead of Thursday’s election.

The full results of the poll were:

* Labour – 42% (+1)

* Conservatives – 22% (-14)

* Plaid Cymru – 9% (-1)

* Reform UK – 14% (NEW)

* Liberal Democrat – 4% (-2)

* The Green Party – 5% (+4)

(+/- figures are differences from 2019 vote share results).

When compared with More in Common’s poll from the start of the campaign, First Minister and Welsh Labour leader Vaughan Gething has fallen further in his approval ratings from minus 17 points approval rating at the end of May to minus 30 points as the general election campaign enters its final week.

Only Sunak and the Conservatives have worse approval ratings in Wales.

Wrong appointment

People in Wales are now twice as likely to think that the decision to appoint Gething as First Minister was the wrong one (44%) than the right one (18%) – though many also say they don’t know (38%).

The proportion of the public who consider Gething’s appointment to be the wrong one has increased over the course of the general election campaign from 30% at the end of May to 44% at the end of June. Similarly, the proportion of those who viewed Gething’s appointment as the right decision has fallen from 24% at the end of May to 18% at the end of June.

While the number of people in Wales who think that Vaughan Gething is an improvement on Mark Drakeford has remained stable at 15%, the proportion of Welsh people who think Gething is a downgrade on Drakeford has risen from 15% at the end of May to 23% at the end of June.

Labour are ahead of both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru on the top issues that will decide this election – the cost of living and the NHS. Plaid is ahead on one issue – standing up for Wales in Westminster, and none of the three main parties are ahead on climate change or immigration whether neither beats all three parties.

Welsh Government

The polling also found that people in Wales are more likely to blame and hold the Welsh Government responsible for issues in transport, education, crime and the NHS.

It’s only on issues relating to the economy where people in Wales place more responsibility at Westminster than at Cardiff.

The vast majority (72%) of people in Wales view the introduction of the 20mph speed limit policy earlier this year as a bad idea. The biggest issues people in Wales see with the 20mph limit are that there are other priorities the government should be focusing on, the lack of proper consultation, and the costs of introducing the policy.

‘Monolithic political force’

Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “Labour will once again become a close to monolithic political force across Wales as the Welsh Conservatives face electoral wipeout in Wales on polling day this Thursday.

“Our polling last month showed it was clear that Labour’s strength in Wales was in spite of not because of Gething’s appeal. Over the last four weeks that has become even clearer as Gething’s approval ratings have collapsed and now twice as many think his appointment as FM was the wrong rather than right decision.

“His public approval numbers aren’t the only numbers that matter for Gething as he faces a real challenge getting a budget through the Senedd and Welsh Labour will have to reflect on whether keeping the beleaguered first minister in place is worth the political cost.”

More in Common polled a nationally representative sample of 848 Welsh adults between June 24 and June 28 2024.


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Frank
Frank
13 days ago

It doesn’t matter which party is in government in Westmins7ter it will still keep Cymru intentionally underfunded, poor and wanting. That way, when England is performing badly, they can always say: “But look at Wales. We, here in England, are not as underachieving as them.” Sunak has recently used the Welsh NHS as an example of how poorly it is run compared to England’s NHS. Yes Mr. Sunak, even though the Welsh NHS is run by the Senedd it is the government in Westminster that is underfunding the Welsh budget. There is no way on Earth that Westminster will give… Read more »

Last edited 13 days ago by Frank
David
David
13 days ago
Reply to  Frank

“On top of that we are treating more and more incomers in our surgeries and hospitals. One cannot get into our hospitals for foreigners!!!” . By incomers and foreigners do you mean the English from over Clawdd Offa.

Frank
Frank
13 days ago
Reply to  David

Mostly.

Dai Ponty
Dai Ponty
13 days ago
Reply to  David

I live in Rhondda Cynon Taff and there are a lot of English people around this area NOT RETIRED NOT WORKING LIVING on Council estates or whatever housing association mainly with London or south east of england accents

Sneb yn gwbod.
Sneb yn gwbod.
12 days ago
Reply to  David

Yes and all the A & E facilities in Powys full of people from other side of Clawdd Offa or have Or have I got that wrong somewhere.

Welsh Patriot
Welsh Patriot
13 days ago

Gething’s approval ratings slump to new low, the amazing thing is that he has any approval rating at all!

Che Guevara's Fist
Che Guevara's Fist
13 days ago
Reply to  Welsh Patriot

Yet people here will still vote Labour. It beggars belief.

Johnny Gamble
Johnny Gamble
13 days ago

Nothing surprising about that put a red rosette on a donkey and it’s inevitable what comes next.

Linda Jones
Linda Jones
13 days ago
Reply to  Welsh Patriot

It is in the minuses

Swn Y Mor
Swn Y Mor
13 days ago

Polls schmolls, this election cycle has been the worst for the almost daily deluge of polls. They really should be banned as they can be used to manipulate the voter. The more in commons polled a whopping 848 Welsh adults.

R W
R W
13 days ago
Reply to  Swn Y Mor

It’s funny that NC only seems to report on polls from shady polling companies or those that no one has ever heard of. Does that have something to do with Shipton trying to manipulate public opinion?

Riki
Riki
13 days ago

Dear god! This country is truly embarrassing. They can literally do anything to us, lie and lie again. Let’s be honest, people are only voting Labour to keep the Tories out, which means Wales will forever be in Limbo. and the UK state will forever have a play thing at their disposal.

David
David
13 days ago
Reply to  Riki

“Let’s be honest, people are only voting Labour to keep the Tories out,”. The people are actually voting Labour for their Tory policies.

Annibendod
Annibendod
13 days ago
Reply to  Riki

Polling in GE’s in Wales is notoriously sketchy. Their sample sizes are usually too small to be accurate enough. From my own involvement I’m picking up on different signals in my constituency..

Riki
Riki
13 days ago
Reply to  Annibendod

Ofcourse I hope I’m wrong, but going by history. It’s not likely.

Welshman28
Welshman28
13 days ago

Wales gets excellent funding for NHS that fact is recognised. People should wake up and ask what’s happening with that funding. When the nhs in England get an increase we in WALES get one too. BUT we’ve no idea what the Welsh Labour government does with those increases .

Mr Williams
Mr Williams
13 days ago
Reply to  Welshman28

I don’t know how it is in the NHS, but in education, tens of millions of pounds a year have been ploughed into their consortia, like GwE in north Wales (basically a bureaucracy of highly paid ‘advisers’), while the front line has been starved of funds. This is one of the ways money has been completely wasted.

Adrian
Adrian
13 days ago
Reply to  Welshman28

Far too much gets spent on woke non-jobs with the words gender, inclusivity, and diversity in the title.

CapM
CapM
13 days ago
Reply to  Adrian

Presumably that was a plug for Reform.

Annibendod
Annibendod
13 days ago
Reply to  Adrian

Sorry, you lost me as soon as you used “woke” as a perjorative. I’m just primed that what follows is usually an ill-founded right wing rant.

Annibendod
Annibendod
13 days ago
Reply to  Welshman28

Yes we do. The accounts are regularly published. Go to the Wales Governance Centre website.

Mr Williams
Mr Williams
13 days ago

I think it is more concerning that Reform UK are polling higher than Plaid Cymru? Why is a British (English) nationalist party – that aims to abolish our self-government, polling higher, in Wales, than the Welsh nationalist party? I think Plaid need to do some soul searching and ask why. Perhaps Plaid is seen as too similar to Labour in many respects? Should they be less ‘socialist’, more socially-conservative, much more of a grass roots movement? Do English speakers still see Plaid as a party just for the Cymraeg, rather than for all the Cymry (which is, I suspect, the… Read more »

Riki
Riki
13 days ago
Reply to  Mr Williams

It’s evidently proof. Proof that shows that Most English speakers in Wales don’t m only speak English, but has been fully anglicised to the pint where they’ll gladly vote for the abolishment of their own voices. The conquest of The Britons and the theft of their history and identity is almost complete.

Adrian
Adrian
13 days ago
Reply to  Mr Williams

I’m genuinely interested here. It fascinates me that someone can view what they call a British nationalist party with such obvious disdain, and simultaneously look favourably on a Welsh nationalist party.

CapM
CapM
13 days ago
Reply to  Adrian

A Welsh nationalist party is specific to establishing an independent nation state, Cymru.
A British nationalist party is about keeping Cymru, Scotland and a bit of Ireland in a nation state overwhelmingly influenced and ultimately governed by England.

Mr Williams
Mr Williams
13 days ago
Reply to  Adrian

A good point. I think that the reason is the type of nationalism being presented. The Welsh nationalist party, Plaid Cymru, is not an ethnic-nationalist party but might better be considered a ‘sovereigntist’ party (i.e., aiming for independence, not to the detriment of any particular community). The Reform Party (the renamed Brexit Party, but same or similar outlook) are aiming to end the self-government of the Welsh people (which 2 referenda brought into being) and are pursuing some issues (whether rightly or wrongly) that may be considered to be to the detriment of certain groups. They seem to have a… Read more »

Last edited 13 days ago by Mr Williams
Annibendod
Annibendod
13 days ago
Reply to  Adrian

A party that stands up for Welsh Nationhood and Democracy is very different to an imperialist mindset that wants to assert its own artifice on others.

Johnny Gamble
Johnny Gamble
13 days ago
Reply to  Mr Williams

Actually Reform UK are in favour of keeping devolved government in Cymru it was not their policy at the last Senedd elections to Abolish the Senedd.
On the other hand ukip who reform broke away from are vociferously anti devolution and want the Senedd gone.

CapM
CapM
13 days ago
Reply to  Johnny Gamble

I can’t see any reference to devolution in Reform’s “Contract”.
Can you point out to me what I’ve apparently missed.

Mr Williams
Mr Williams
13 days ago
Reply to  Johnny Gamble

I stand corrected about that point then, I appreciate you pointing it out. Their rhetoric hasn’t been (or certainly seemed to be) very pro-devolution. Do you know what their current position is on this?

Last edited 13 days ago by Mr Williams
Mandi A
Mandi A
12 days ago
Reply to  Johnny Gamble

All the same people moving deckchairs. The big constitutional reform needed across Britain is that a by-election is triggered by an incumbent changing or leaving the party they were elected under.

MarkDrakeford
MarkDrakeford
13 days ago
Reply to  Mr Williams

I think a new party needs to champion Welsh nationalism and harness the discontent that Reform is harnessing, and Plaid should stick to represent Cymraeg on the same independence axis.
Plaid has spent too long trying to have minor influence on Welsh government affairs and their only real achievements, albeit culturally important, is the defence of the Welsh language. They also get themselves caught up with Labour on power supply agreements, but haven’t had any long lasting success in south wales valleys

Frank
Frank
13 days ago

Can someone please tell me why the people here in Cymru still vote Labour? What attracts the electorate to vote for them is a complete mystery. It’s like a bad habit! Tell me, what has Labour ever done for you and Wales? There are other options on the ballot paper you know! I am voting Plaid this time as I believe Rhun ap Iorwerth is the only one that is impressing me. Having said that, I have not heard much from the other parties. Come on, what have we got to lose? Plaid cannot possibly be as incompetent as the… Read more »

Last edited 13 days ago by Frank
Bob Sinclair
Bob Sinclair
12 days ago

Gething wasn’t appointed, he was chosen by the party membership.

Personally I don’t think any PM or FM should be chosen by the party membership when they are in government. The elected representatives should be choosing their own representative to ensure the new leader has democratic legitimacy. A new election should only needed if they want to move away form the manifesto.

But that’s the system as it stands. If you don’t like the system, change it. But don’t use it to try and delegitimise a leader you don’t like.

Last edited 12 days ago by Bob Sinclair
CapM
CapM
12 days ago
Reply to  Bob Sinclair

From what you’ve written I gather that you think a decision by a party’s membership (including Union votes and SMs)is the wrong system to use when a FM is chosen (within an electoral term). And you’ve suggested a different system that should be used.. Therefore based on that Gething’s elevation to the role of First Minister can be described as not being legitimate , at least from a point of view such as yours (and mine). However Gething and his supporters are on firm ground if they say Gething’s elevation to the role of First Minister didn’t break any Labour… Read more »

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