Labour leads in latest Senedd election poll, suggesting it’s wrong to write off the party’s chances
Martin Shipton
Welsh Labour has come out on top in the latest Senedd voting intention poll conducted by Beaufort Research for Nation.Cymru.
The results suggest that it would be premature to write off the chances of the party which has dominated Welsh politics for more than a century retaining its role as the biggest party after next May’s Senedd election.
Our new poll shows Labour leading with 27%, followed by Reform UK on 25%, Plaid Cymru on 21%, the Conservatives on 13%, the Green Party on 6%, the Liberal Democrats on 5% and Some other party on 2%.
Labour retains the marginal lead it held in our last Beaufort poll in March, but Reform’s share of the vote has risen slightly, while Plaid and the Conservatives have decreased slightly.
Unpredictable
The poll continues the unpredictable nature of the polling results, with Labour, Reform and Plaid Cymru all having led in polls carried out by different companies in recent months.
In the Beaufort poll, there are variations in support depending on region, gender, age, social grade and whether those polled can speak Welsh or not.
Beaufort splits Wales into three regions.
In North and Mid Wales, Reform leads with 26% followed by the Conservatives on 20%, Plaid Cymru 18%, Labour 16%, Lib Dem 11%, Greens 8% and Some other party on 1%.
In South West Wales and the Valleys, Plaid Cymru leads with 29%, ahead of Labour and Reform which are both on 27%, the Conservatives on 10%, Green 4%, Lib Dems 2% and Some other party 1%.
In Cardiff and South East Wales, Labour lead on 41%, ahead of Reform on 22%, Conservatives 13%, Plaid Cymru 9%, Green 7%, Lib Dems 3% and Some other party 2%.
Gender
In terms of gender, Reform leads among men with 31%, Labour is on 25%, Plaid Cymru 20%, Conservatives 11%, Lib Dem and Green both on 5% and Some other party on 2%.
Meanwhile Labour leads among women on 30%, Plaid Cymru is on 22%, Reform 18%, Conservatives 16%, Green 7%, Lib Dems 6% and Some other party 1%.
So far as age is concerned, Labour leads among 16-34 year-olds with 39%, followed by Plaid Cymru on 25%, Reform on 15%, Conservatives 10%, Lib Dems 6%, Greens 5% and Some other party 0%.
Among those aged between 35 and 54, Labour leads with 31%, ahead of Reform on 25%, Plaid Cymru on 20%, Green 9%, Conservatives 8%, Lib Dem 6% and Some other party 1%.
Voters aged 55 and over split Reform 29%, Labour 22%, Plaid Cymru 19%, Conservative 18%, Green 5%, Lib Dem 4% and Some other party 2%.
In terms of social grade, Labour led with 32% among the more prosperous ABC1 voters, followed by Plaid Cymru on 21%, Reform 19%, Conservatives 14%, Green 7%, Lib Dems 5%, Some other party 2%.
Among less prosperous C2DE voters, Reform was backed by 34%, with Labour on 21%, Plaid Cymru on 20%, Conservatives 13%, Greens 6%, Lib Dems 5% and Some other party 1%.
Welsh speakers
Those who can speak Welsh put Plaid Cymru in the lead with 37%, followed by Labour on 22%, Reform on 18%, Conservatives on 11%, Lib Dems 7%, Green 6% and Some other party on 0%.
Those unable to speak Welsh have Labour in the lead on 30%, followed by Reform on 28%, Plaid Cymru 15%, Conservatives 14%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 4% and Some other party 2%.
Next year’s Senedd election will see the number of MSs increase from 60 to 96, with all members elected by the closed list system of proportional representation, with six members elected from each of 16 “super constituencies” covering the whole of Wales.
* The results include those aged 16 and over who expressed support for a party and who said they were at least 90% certain of voting in a Senedd election. Fieldwork took place between June 2 and June 22 2025. Some 1,000 interviews were carried out online, with the results based on 400 respondents who fulfilled the required criteria. The sample is a representative cross-section of Wales’ adult population.
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Why is this poll so out of step with other polls? Either people haven’t made their minds up are swapping voting intentions or thiz poll is widely off the mark-i hope its the latter
400 respondents across Wales over 3 weeks is a joke of a poll, whichever party you support. That is why it is so out of step and frankly a waste of money.
You can also add that the regions that the poll split Wales up into are a joke as well: North and Mid Wales ‘region’. This includes: North West Wales (voted Plaid Cymru in 2024 GE) North East Wales (including Wrexham, voted Labour) Powys (voted Labour and Liberal Democrat but strong Tory vote in the past). North East Wales is more urban and industrial than North West Wales and mid-Wales. This so-called ‘region’ is an absolute joke. South West Wales and the Valleys ‘region’. This includes: Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion (I’m assuming Ceregion got lumped in with this ‘region’ rather than the North… Read more »
And what the hell is ‘Some other party’?
The Tories on 20% in north Wales!? This is clearly a joke poll, with a poll sample of 400, which is absolutely tiny!
Liebour have been a nightmare for Wales my personal preference is Plaid but anyone than Reform and of course Tories
Once again I take from this Plaid must start talking about the positive impact they would make to Wales, rather than going front and centre with our missing HS2 and Barnett consequentials which is clearly just not inspiring. And once again voting Green is simply helping Reform.
Interesting that you use the phrase “once again.” Plaid Cymru must stop mourning, present policies which affect the people of Wales, get working on the doors and in the media. Above all, present itself as a WELSH party.
I won’t hold my breath.
Bet there are around 30% who are undecided and not recorded in these polls. Therefore there is a lot of campaigning to do. Plaid Cymru can win their support. There are many incomers that have chosen Wales to be their home looking for a better life and embracing their new country of choice. They will most likely speak English as their first language. Plaid Cymru will need to produce English language focused literature to reach them. They are going to be the new Wales. We need them to feel at home with Plaid Cymru and Wales. We can think about… Read more »
400 respondents from across Wales! I would question 400 over a constituency, yet the whole of Wales. Having a few 1000 across Wales over say a week would be more relevant, not 400 over 3 weeks.
Indeed, it makes you wonder how randomly selected they were?
That reform are even in the running, that is great shame on a nation like Wales.
Let them at power and it will be bad.
Bad. Bad! It would be catastrophic!!
Worse than that. If they remove Wales’ right to self governance, civil war could be a real possibility, but knowing who their paymasters are, it’s likely that’s part of their plan.
Gotta say this poll seems like a bit of a outlier? Its completely at variance with every other poll taken in Wales since last Autumn. Either Beaufort Research knows something every other polling company doesn’t…. or this polling company will have very red faces – and a lot of explaining to do – when the votes are counted in next year’s Senedd election (my money’s on the latter).
UK Election Data Vault gives YouGov a pollster rating of A-, More in Common is rated D+ for accuracy, Redfield and Wilton is rated D, whilst Beaufort doesn’t even get a rating!
As a Plaid supporter and voter in South Wales, this doesn’t particularly surprise me. We can dismiss the size of the sample or see it as an outlier, but the simple factor is Plaid are not getting their message across. Those of us who are interested in politics are outrage by HS2 funding or lack of it, the Barnett formula, the crown estate, failure to devolve invest etc etc. But for everyone else which is the majority of votes it means very little. What is Plaids point point of difference. what are they actually going to do in government, not… Read more »
I fully agree. I’ve never met anyone normal who cares or even knows about HS2, independence, devolution of justice or the crown estate. In my village, I think the priorities will be – ability to see a GP, social care and high council tax/poor council services.
So those of us who know about, and care about, HS2, independence, justice and the crown estate are abnormal? “I’ve never met anyone..” is the usual bilge from those who think anecdote is equal to data. The number of people you know or meet is, statistically, utterly insignificant; besides, most of us socialise with those who share our views; I don’t have anything to do with Reform supporters, so by your logic I could say that there are none! I suggest you look up the Dunbar number before opining.
I think a lot of people are more politically savvy than you give them credit for, though there is a problem with most people getting most of their news from the English media.
So will you be out on the doorstep campaigning for Plaid?
Yes I will.
” So far as age is concerned, Labour leads among 16-34 year-olds with 39%, followed by Plaid Cymru on 25%, Reform on 15%, Conservatives 10%, Lib Dems 6%, Greens 5% and Some other party 0%.”
Whatever the validity of the poll overall, that’s an interesting result.
Plaid are supposedly picking up the .youthful “idealists ” desperate for change? They are the future?
“Whatever the validity of the poll overall, that’s an interesting result”….these aren’t results they are projections…..and for a election still almost a year away. For sure this poll’s figures are interesting, but given they are at great variance with other polls in Wales this year it might be sensible to treat this poll with some caution.
I wonder if any of these polls include Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party as an option? If not then this may inflate Reform’s vote share
Very good point. We need to grow up and ask that question.
Labour were down on 18% on last YouGov poll in May, I fail to see what would have turned it around for them in that short time especially in Wales.
In a survey published on BBC today,
“The survey showed just 8% of 201 secondary school pupils asked could identify the Wales’ first minister, and fewer than half recognised Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.”
That’s the reality.
How many people (school age or other) would recognise Rhun?
Reform is on 25%. Let that sink in. When a party like Reform is on anything above 1% it should be obvious that devolution hasn’t gone too well.
Quite right. Full independence is the only way.
Do you think so independence ask the Scots if there glad they did not get independance, now they know what they know national debt is 2.8 trillion to leave union uk would cost £188000 per person in wales, or there about that would mean bankruptcy what currency would you use the in wales ,snp may have wanted it but most of the people of Scotland don’t that’s why voting plaid not good idea, and have been in coalition with labour same policies near enough be carefull what you wish for.
….or that you’re wildly out of step with your fellow citizens.
At least we’re not goose stepping.
Yet!… rumour has it that Kermit has been spotted practicing
He was doing that around Dulwich when he was at Dulwich college, which is worth a butcher’s to see where the “man of the people” went to school.
Nothing to do with devolution. In all capitalist and democratic states, a certain percentage of the population hold right-wing views, ranging from “little england” tories to full-on fascist loonies. In the UK I would put this percentage at around 20 -25% . These people always exist, but can get louder depending on social conditions and the state of the economy. In order to understand why they exist, you have to look at psychology, child rearing, and family structures- fascists are not born, they are made. There is plenty of research to confirm this. Our job is to make sure they… Read more »
Ignoring the size of the sample, these polls just suggest that the allegiance of a very large part of the voting public is very fluid. Support for reform is in part because those people think that the “party” (limited company) offers something different from the neo-liberal clap trap that we have had since Thatcher, not realising that the “party” is funded by supporters and beneficiaries of that system. Remember that Sir James Goldsmith and the Referendum Party started the ball rolling and after his death Farage and UKIP continued to stir the pot and it is why Farage still wants… Read more »
The most important poll is the one on the day of the vote.
Clutching at straws. Don’t think this poor poll is going to rescue Labour.
Based on a sample of 400 voters over three weeks, I think this is an extremely poor sample and therefore cannot tell us anything. That said most 1000 voter polls are of limited use. As always the trends are what’s important, but even then we need more 10000 voter polls and polling in the two or three closest marginal constituencies in order to understand which party is most likely to come out on top.