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Labour soars to 20% lead over Tories in new Welsh tracker poll

20 Apr 2023 2 minute read
Rishi Sunak. Photo Gareth Fuller. PA Images

A new Welsh tracker poll has revealed a 20% lead for Labour over the Conservatives, whose support is down 12 points from the 2019 General Election.

The first Wales specific polling carried by the global strategic consulting firm Redfield & Wilton Strategies sees the Labour Party quadruple its lead in Westminster Voting Intention from 5% in 2019.

A majority of Welsh voters also describe the current UK Government as incompetent – with negative approval ratings across all the policy areas they were quizzed on.

62% of Welsh voters cite the economy and the NHS as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election.

Other commonly selected issues include immigration (28%), the Environment (21%), and Housing (18%).

Only 5% of respondents cite Welsh Independence/The Union as one of the three issues that would most determine their vote if a General Election was held tomorrow.

The full results (with changes from the 2019 General Election in parentheses) are:

Labour 44% (+3)

Conservatives 24% (-12)

Plaid Cymru 12% (+2)

Reform UK 9% (+4)

Liberal Democrat 7% (+1)

Green 4% (+3)

Other 0% (-1)

Sample size: 1,251

Margin of Error: 2.77%

While Keir Starmer leads Rishi Sunak by ten points as the person Welsh voters think would be a better Prime Minister (39% to 29%), the Labour leader only has a net approval rating of -7% in Wales (38% disapprove vs 31% approve).

As for Sunak, he receives a net rating of -15% (43% disapprove vs 28% approve).


A majority of Welsh voters (61%) say the current UK Government is incompetent, with the Government also earning negative approval ratings for its performance on every policy issue listed, including on the key issues of the NHS (-53%), the economy (-42%), and immigration (-40%).

Voters in Wales have a more charitable view of the Welsh Government. 33% regard the Welsh Government as competent, against 30% who regard it as incompetent, although Mark Drakeford’s  administration earns negative net approval ratings for its handling of every policy area apart from Coronavirus (+25%).

Welsh voters express mixed views on the success of devolution itself.

While 63% would vote in favour of keeping a Welsh parliament in a referendum, only 23% say devolution has so far been a success. 26% say it has been a failure.

Finally, in a hypothetical referendum on Welsh independence, 60% of voters in Wales would currently vote ‘No, against independence,’ while 29% would vote, ‘Yes, for Independence.’

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Dai Rob
Dai Rob
10 months ago

Excluding Dont Knows….32.5% Yes to Indy…..not bad…..

David Zenati-Parsons
David Zenati-Parsons
10 months ago
Reply to  Dai Rob

those figures are without a public debate, I think that is encouraging for our future #IndyWales and lets not forget that drakeford himself said that if the people of Wales wanted Independence then he would follow the will of the people and make it work. Labour – Plaid alliance is needed now.

10 months ago
Reply to  Dai Rob

We started the 2014 referendum with just 28% for independence but still managed to get to 45% at the end of the campaign and that was after Project fear and the Love Bombs. This is a great position to be in. Free Cymru!

Brechdan Wncomunco
10 months ago
Reply to  Wynn

Free Cymru with no English names DVLC is an aboration Ltd should be GFLC.

Iago Prydderch
Iago Prydderch
10 months ago

Voters in Wales can’t keep blaming Westminster for the state of the Welsh NHS when it’s being run by the Welsh Labour government. If Welsh voters saw the NHS as that important they would vote for a change of government in Cardiff. Voting for a change of government in London would have no impact on the Welsh NHS and only benefit the NHS in England. Wales needs a new party in government because Welsh Labour are failing this country.

Che Guevara's Fist
Che Guevara's Fist
10 months ago
Reply to  Iago Prydderch

Well… yes and no. A lot of people on the tory right play this trick all the time. Westminster really do play games with the inherent limitations of devolution. True, the NHS in Wales is devolved but devolution only goes so far. The conditions are still dictated to by Westminster and when they screw around with our NHS it’s the government in Cardiff Bay that gets accused of being at fault by people who are not looking in the right direction: London. A recent example is the £150 mil fiasco when Westminster told the Senedd they couldn’t spend the overspend… Read more »

Rhufawn Jones
Rhufawn Jones
10 months ago

Hen blaid unoliaethol yw Llafur hefyd. Ac affliw o ddiddordeb ganddi yn y cadarnleoedd Cymraeg.

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