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Major new poll shows Welsh Conservative cabinet members both losing their seats

13 Dec 2022 3 minute read
Left David TC Davies. Photo Richard-Townshend-CC-BY-3.0. Simon Hart photo by Chris McAndrew (CC BY 3.0).

A major new MRP poll which interviewed 6,237 participants projects that the Conservatives would be reduced to just two constituencies in Wales at a General Election.

Both the Welsh Secretary David TC Davies and the Chief Whip Simon Hart would lose their seats, according to the latest MRP nowcast from Savanta.

MRP polls are thought to be more accurate at predicting elections because they record lots of other data about the people who respond and use that to devise a mathematical model of how various groups of people are likely to vote.

According to this MRP poll, of 14 Conservative seats, only Fay Jones in Brecon and Radnorshire and Craig Williams in Montgomeryshire would survive the Welsh wipeout.

Every other seat in Wales would go to Labour apart from the four currently held by Plaid Cymru.

Labour would return to the House of Commons with a 314 seat majority if an election were tomorrow, the poll projects.

‘Caution’

The poll, Savanta’s first MRP since Labour conference and conducted in conjunction with Electoral Calculus, gives Labour a 20pt voting intention lead which, when converted to seats would more than double the number of MPs they currently have in Westminster.

The poll shows that the Conservative Party would be likely wiped out in much of the north of England, with the model suggesting that the party would not hold a single seat north of Lincolnshire, while also losing all of the seats in London, and conceding many seats in the South West to Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

The SNP gain an extra seven seats according to the model, leaving them with all bar four of Scotland’s 59 Westminster constituencies, while the Liberal Democrats would increase their parliamentary representation to their highest level since 2010, including gaining Dominic Raab’s Esher and Walton seat.

Commenting on the findings, Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta, said: “Last time we published an MRP model, I spoke of both the potential and precarious nature of the 56-seat majority and 12pt lead the poll gave the Labour Party during their conference.
“Even the most optimistic Labour supporter would not have foreseen what was to come, such was the subsequent Conservative collapse, and therefore this latest MRP model reflects the position now, of two parties experiencing widely differing electoral fortunes.”

“But we must still express caution. Many seats going to Labour in this model, including a few that could be deemed ‘Red Wall’, still indicate a 40% or higher chance of remaining Conservative, and while that would have little impact on the overall election result, it does show that if Rishi Sunak can keep narrowing that Labour lead, point-by-point, the actual results come 2024 could look very different to this nowcast model.”


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Dewi
Dewi
1 month ago

Let’s hope so!

Riki
Riki
1 month ago

And so they should! Traitors!

Rhufawn Jones
Rhufawn Jones
1 month ago

Da iawn!

Nia James
Nia James
1 month ago

We can only pray to the Gods

WilliamsG
WilliamsG
1 month ago

Bring it on !

Cynan again
Cynan again
1 month ago

Good news. Until you realise we’re just replacing the far right blue tories with the mild right red tories. So only shooting ourselves in both feet instead of the head

DAI Ponty
DAI Ponty
1 month ago

To Quote the great Welsh comedy actor who played Battery Sgt Major in it Aint Half Hot Mum Windsor Davies OH DEAR HOW SAD NEVER MIND

Mr Williams
Mr Williams
1 month ago

Please Wales, let it be so!

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
1 month ago

Both David TC Davies & Simon Heart are the most corrupt lying tretcherous politicians Wales has had to suffer. And I will rejoice when voters finally eject these useless self-serving anti-Welsh clowns from office.

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