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Majority in Wales think UK won’t exist in its present form in 10 years, poll suggests

23 Mar 2022 3 minute read
Left: Scottish independence rally 2018. Picture by Azerifactory (CC BY-SA 4.0) Right: Picture by Lluniau Lleucu / Yes Cymru.

A majority of people in Wales think the UK won’t exist as it does today in 10 years, a new poll suggests.

Even with don’t knows included, 51% of Welsh people asked by pollsters Ipsos Mori told them that the UK would not exist in its current form in 10 years, with that figure rising to 65% with don’t knows removed.

The people of Wales were the second most optimistic about the future of the UK, however, with 61% and 57% in Scotland and Northern Ireland thinking the union was doomed.

Only in England, with don’t knows included, did fewer than half (49%) think the Uk would still exist in its present form in 10 years.

Over 20 years a majority in every nation thought the UK would not exist in its present form. Over five years, most Scots (51%) thought the union would come to an end as it was., with don’t knows removed.

In Wales, 53% would prefer Scotland to vote against independence, while 14% wanted them to vote for.

They were, however, complementary about how the Scottish Government had handled the pandemic, with 50% saying they had done ‘well’ compared to just 20% saying they had done ‘badly’. For the UK Government, it was 31% ‘well’ and 56% ‘badly’.

‘No surprise’

Concerns about the UK’s breakup seemed to be driven by a feeling that the UK was on a difficult economic trajectory, Ipsos Mori said. 73% of people in Wales expected the economy to get worse, with only 8% expecting it to get better. That compared with 68% for worse and 9% for better in Scotland.

Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos Scotland, said: “Scots are pessimistic about the country’s economic prospects, which shows the public are well aware of the challenges facing the Scottish Government in delivering on its recently published National Strategy for Economic Transformation.

“Given wider pressures on the cost of living and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it comes as no surprise that people are feeling uncertain about the short-term future of the economy, and are divided over whether Scotland’s economic prospects are likely to be any different from the UK’s as a whole.

“Meanwhile, although three in five Scots expect the demise of the UK within 10 years, those in England and Wales would still prefer Scotland to vote No in any second referendum.”

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 4,279 people over 16 in the UK (including 1,879 in England, 1,163 in Scotland, 802 in Northern Ireland, and 435 in Wales).

Interviews were conducted online from 3rd to 9th February 2022.


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Gareth
Gareth
6 months ago

Now that looks like a very scientific poll. Cymru 435 questioned yet N Ireland 802, with half our population,

Welsh_Siôn
Welsh_Siôn
6 months ago
Reply to  Gareth

Similarly, Cymru doesn’t figure as one of the ‘regions’ in their polls – whereas England and Scotland, do. (I presume we’re either ‘North excl. Scotland’ or ‘Midlands’).

Not a scientific poll by any stretch.

Grayham Jones
6 months ago

The UK 🇬🇧 is finished it’s time for Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 and Ireland 🇮🇪 to be independent it with make a better world.

Mark
Mark
6 months ago

I can see it now, it will be a re unified Ireland and an independent Scotland and England complete with an annexed wales, unless Labour breaks away from London control and we kick the tories out, like they have in Scotland. Westminster has too much control

Mark
Mark
6 months ago

Might be an idea if we could get everyone using Cymru instead of Wales, english media presenters appear to have no trouble using Kyiv instead of Kiev.

Gareth
Gareth
6 months ago
Reply to  Mark

It is up to us how we want to be known. The FAW has been calling our football team Cymru for several years, Turkey now are changing to Turkiye, and most Indian cities have reverted to original names eg Mumbai for Bombay etc, but it is our own people who must lead the change, and it could be difficult, as the fight over the use of Eryri and snowdon has shown.

Dai Rob
Dai Rob
6 months ago

If Scotland leaves, that is a game changer in Wales. Bring. It. On. Baby.

Leigh Richards
Leigh Richards
6 months ago

You dont have to be einstein to work out that if we want to see an independent Wales it will only happen if we vote for parties that want to see an independent Wales. It will never happen if a unionist labour party continues to win elections in Wales, it really is as simple as that.

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
6 months ago

Wales has never been part of this so-called British Union. And no amount of lame excuses by our British Unionist revisionists , especially in Wales, will alter this fact. The truth is the truth. We are often told various excuses how Wales is part of this false Union. How the Welsh Dragon couldn’t be incorporated into the Union Flag. The red in the flag in the Union Flag represents Wales. Or because Wales after the Act of Union 1535- 1543 was consumed into the Kingdom of England therefore represented by the flag of St’ George rubbish. Okay. Let’s educate our… Read more »

Last edited 6 months ago by Y Cymro
Rob
Rob
6 months ago

Which begs the question…

If Scotland goes independent, and Ireland is reunified, what happens to Wales then?
“Oh but I want to be British” There won’t be a British union to be part of.

Richard
Richard
6 months ago

Think pollsters just did a mornings reach out to West Anglia rather than Cymru ….ticked the Chepstow, Overton and Knighton boxes I guess

Crinc
Crinc
6 months ago

I’d love an independent Wales that could fully sustain itself but never in the eu, for me it’s UK over eu I don’t want to live in a weak country.

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