Majority in Wales think UK won’t exist in its present form in 10 years, poll suggests
A majority of people in Wales think the UK won’t exist as it does today in 10 years, a new poll suggests.
Even with don’t knows included, 51% of Welsh people asked by pollsters Ipsos Mori told them that the UK would not exist in its current form in 10 years, with that figure rising to 65% with don’t knows removed.
The people of Wales were the second most optimistic about the future of the UK, however, with 61% and 57% in Scotland and Northern Ireland thinking the union was doomed.
Only in England, with don’t knows included, did fewer than half (49%) think the Uk would still exist in its present form in 10 years.
Over 20 years a majority in every nation thought the UK would not exist in its present form. Over five years, most Scots (51%) thought the union would come to an end as it was., with don’t knows removed.
In Wales, 53% would prefer Scotland to vote against independence, while 14% wanted them to vote for.
They were, however, complementary about how the Scottish Government had handled the pandemic, with 50% saying they had done ‘well’ compared to just 20% saying they had done ‘badly’. For the UK Government, it was 31% ‘well’ and 56% ‘badly’.
Concerns about the UK’s breakup seemed to be driven by a feeling that the UK was on a difficult economic trajectory, Ipsos Mori said. 73% of people in Wales expected the economy to get worse, with only 8% expecting it to get better. That compared with 68% for worse and 9% for better in Scotland.
Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos Scotland, said: “Scots are pessimistic about the country’s economic prospects, which shows the public are well aware of the challenges facing the Scottish Government in delivering on its recently published National Strategy for Economic Transformation.
“Given wider pressures on the cost of living and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it comes as no surprise that people are feeling uncertain about the short-term future of the economy, and are divided over whether Scotland’s economic prospects are likely to be any different from the UK’s as a whole.
“Meanwhile, although three in five Scots expect the demise of the UK within 10 years, those in England and Wales would still prefer Scotland to vote No in any second referendum.”
Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 4,279 people over 16 in the UK (including 1,879 in England, 1,163 in Scotland, 802 in Northern Ireland, and 435 in Wales).
Interviews were conducted online from 3rd to 9th February 2022.
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