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Majority in Wales think UK won’t exist in its present form in 10 years, poll suggests

23 Mar 2022 3 minute read
Left: Scottish independence rally 2018. Picture by Azerifactory (CC BY-SA 4.0) Right: Picture by Lluniau Lleucu / Yes Cymru.

A majority of people in Wales think the UK won’t exist as it does today in 10 years, a new poll suggests.

Even with don’t knows included, 51% of Welsh people asked by pollsters Ipsos Mori told them that the UK would not exist in its current form in 10 years, with that figure rising to 65% with don’t knows removed.

The people of Wales were the second most optimistic about the future of the UK, however, with 61% and 57% in Scotland and Northern Ireland thinking the union was doomed.

Only in England, with don’t knows included, did fewer than half (49%) think the Uk would still exist in its present form in 10 years.

Over 20 years a majority in every nation thought the UK would not exist in its present form. Over five years, most Scots (51%) thought the union would come to an end as it was., with don’t knows removed.

In Wales, 53% would prefer Scotland to vote against independence, while 14% wanted them to vote for.

They were, however, complementary about how the Scottish Government had handled the pandemic, with 50% saying they had done ‘well’ compared to just 20% saying they had done ‘badly’. For the UK Government, it was 31% ‘well’ and 56% ‘badly’.

‘No surprise’

Concerns about the UK’s breakup seemed to be driven by a feeling that the UK was on a difficult economic trajectory, Ipsos Mori said. 73% of people in Wales expected the economy to get worse, with only 8% expecting it to get better. That compared with 68% for worse and 9% for better in Scotland.

Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos Scotland, said: “Scots are pessimistic about the country’s economic prospects, which shows the public are well aware of the challenges facing the Scottish Government in delivering on its recently published National Strategy for Economic Transformation.

“Given wider pressures on the cost of living and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it comes as no surprise that people are feeling uncertain about the short-term future of the economy, and are divided over whether Scotland’s economic prospects are likely to be any different from the UK’s as a whole.

“Meanwhile, although three in five Scots expect the demise of the UK within 10 years, those in England and Wales would still prefer Scotland to vote No in any second referendum.”

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 4,279 people over 16 in the UK (including 1,879 in England, 1,163 in Scotland, 802 in Northern Ireland, and 435 in Wales).

Interviews were conducted online from 3rd to 9th February 2022.


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Gareth
Gareth
1 year ago

Now that looks like a very scientific poll. Cymru 435 questioned yet N Ireland 802, with half our population,

Welsh_Siôn
Welsh_Siôn
1 year ago
Reply to  Gareth

Similarly, Cymru doesn’t figure as one of the ‘regions’ in their polls – whereas England and Scotland, do. (I presume we’re either ‘North excl. Scotland’ or ‘Midlands’).

Not a scientific poll by any stretch.

Grayham Jones
1 year ago

The UK 🇬🇧 is finished it’s time for Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 and Ireland 🇮🇪 to be independent it with make a better world.

Mark
Mark
1 year ago

I can see it now, it will be a re unified Ireland and an independent Scotland and England complete with an annexed wales, unless Labour breaks away from London control and we kick the tories out, like they have in Scotland. Westminster has too much control

Gareth
Gareth
1 year ago

No we are not stronger together, Brexit proved that, we are better off alone.

Arwyn
Arwyn
1 year ago

Clearly not. Wales has been made into one of the poorest nations in Western Europe over the last 100 years.

Mark
Mark
1 year ago

How do you come to the conclusion we’re stronger together, when most evidence points in exactly the opposite direction.

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
1 year ago

It seems the reason that most Welsh people want Scotland to stay is they do not want to be fighting alone for its survival against its larger neighbour as the UKraine is today.

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
1 year ago

If Scotland holds its referendum for independence, then it must be coordinated with a similar referendum here in Wales. We have both got to win these referendum for independence. None of our celtic nations can be left to face the possible experience what Ukraine is going through today.

The majority of Welsh Labour’s membership that are in favour of independence must take control of their party and force through the will of Wales to be independent and campaign for it.

Mark
Mark
1 year ago

Might be an idea if we could get everyone using Cymru instead of Wales, english media presenters appear to have no trouble using Kyiv instead of Kiev.

Gareth
Gareth
1 year ago
Reply to  Mark

It is up to us how we want to be known. The FAW has been calling our football team Cymru for several years, Turkey now are changing to Turkiye, and most Indian cities have reverted to original names eg Mumbai for Bombay etc, but it is our own people who must lead the change, and it could be difficult, as the fight over the use of Eryri and snowdon has shown.

Dai Rob
Dai Rob
1 year ago

If Scotland leaves, that is a game changer in Wales. Bring. It. On. Baby.

Leigh Richards
Leigh Richards
1 year ago

You dont have to be einstein to work out that if we want to see an independent Wales it will only happen if we vote for parties that want to see an independent Wales. It will never happen if a unionist labour party continues to win elections in Wales, it really is as simple as that.

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
1 year ago

Wales has never been part of this so-called British Union. And no amount of lame excuses by our British Unionist revisionists , especially in Wales, will alter this fact. The truth is the truth. We are often told various excuses how Wales is part of this false Union. How the Welsh Dragon couldn’t be incorporated into the Union Flag. The red in the flag in the Union Flag represents Wales. Or because Wales after the Act of Union 1535- 1543 was consumed into the Kingdom of England therefore represented by the flag of St’ George rubbish. Okay. Let’s educate our… Read more »

Last edited 1 year ago by Y Cymro
R W
R W
1 year ago
Reply to  Y Cymro

Some of us actually care about our ancestors. and what happened to them. On the other hand, I’m not aware of any of my ancestors being Polish or Lithuanian!!

Hannergylch
Hannergylch
1 year ago
Reply to  R W

Sure, history is interesting; but some of us care about attrocities being perpetrated right now, using ludicrous excuses from ancient history. Grievance-based blood-and-soil nationalism is inherently evil, and presumed ancestry is no excuse. There is no master race.

R W
R W
1 year ago
Reply to  Hannergylch

You might not care about your ancestory, but many of us do and have researched our family trees back many generations (not “presumed ancestry” as you claim). If we follow your perverse logic, then we should also forget about the slave trade from centuries ago? “The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.” – Winston Churchill “The relationship between you and history is this: When you study history, you think you’re studying a record of events in the past. And that’s not right. What you’re studying is the circumstances that gave rise to you… Read more »

I.Humphrys
I.Humphrys
1 year ago
Reply to  R W

Good post!

Hannergylch
Hannergylch
1 year ago
Reply to  I.Humphrys

Read it carefully. He’s using the same arguments that Vladimir Putin uses to justify the invasion of Ukraine. But the people in Mariupol don’t share his pure bloodline, so I guess that’s OK. The slave trade reference is very telling too. The whole point of enslaving Africans rather than Europeans was that different skin colour made it easy for ethnic supremacists to say “they don’t share our ancestry, so we are justified in enslaving them”. Of course we should study history, but we should be doing so in order to avoid repeating it, not as an excuse for ethnic supremacism.… Read more »

R W
R W
1 year ago
Reply to  Hannergylch

I’m on the side of Ukraine on this you numpty. The small country being bullied by its larger neighbour. It’s been happening all over the world for centuries. At no point have I argued for ethnic supremacism. If you feel Welsh, then you are Welsh, regardless of you ethnic background. Do you think everyone who researches family trees are all supremacists? Absolutely ridiculous!! I also notice you’ve ignored the quotes from people who know a lot more about history than you ever will. Unless you think Churchill and Peterson qualify as supremacists as well!!

Hannergylch
Hannergylch
1 year ago
Reply to  R W

OK, so you’re not an ethnic supremacist, just a little naïve about the dangerous consequences of taking offence on behalf of arbitrary subsets of the long-dead. Well, you can overcome that easily enough, so there’s no real argument here. It’s the Peterson quote that I was referring to: it’s exactly the kind of argument that Putin is making. Putin is correct about Russia suffering numerous catastrophes at the hands of external powers, but if he didn’t take selective personal offence at the misfortunes of medieval Russians while ignoring the misfortunes of other equally deserving people, then his internal narrative would… Read more »

R W
R W
1 year ago
Reply to  Hannergylch

Although he was an intelligent man, I do largely agree on your points concerning Churchill. He could be a very contradictory character at times. However, I think we all have the ability to be contradictory at times, even if we don’t realise it. As for Putin, maybe he does have some valid reasons for feeling aggrieved. However, that does not give him the right to bomb a neighbouring country to oblivion.

Rob
Rob
1 year ago

Which begs the question…

If Scotland goes independent, and Ireland is reunified, what happens to Wales then?
“Oh but I want to be British” There won’t be a British union to be part of.

Richard
Richard
1 year ago

Think pollsters just did a mornings reach out to West Anglia rather than Cymru ….ticked the Chepstow, Overton and Knighton boxes I guess

Paul
Paul
1 year ago

This ‘we’ is the ‘England first’ contingent I take it.

Crinc
Crinc
1 year ago

I’d love an independent Wales that could fully sustain itself but never in the eu, for me it’s UK over eu I don’t want to live in a weak country.

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