Majority would back independence for Wales if it meant we could rejoin the EU, says poll

Martin Shipton

A major milestone has been reached by Wales’ pro-independence movement, with a majority of voters saying they would back Welsh independence if it enabled Wales to rejoin the European Union, according to a new poll.

The poll was commissioned from Redfield and Wilton Strategies by YesCymru to coincide with the upcoming March for Independence in Barry on Saturday April 26.

In response to the question, “Should Wales be an independent country?”, asked in the context of rejoining the EU, 51% of decided voters said they would vote Yes. This is the first time a majority has supported independence in a clearly defined and potentially realistic scenario, marking a significant moment for the pro-independence movement.

‘Hard evidence’

YesCymru Chair Phyl Griffiths said: “We commissioned this poll to better understand how people in Wales view the future, and to provide hard evidence that independence is no longer a fringe idea. While YesCymru does not take a position on EU membership, this result shows that when people are presented with a clear post-independence scenario, support for independence grows.”

Support in this scenario was strongest among Plaid Cymru 2024 voters (91%); 25–34 year olds (82%); Labour 2024 voters (68%) and non-voters in the 2024 general election (63%).

The first question from the same poll, asking how people would vote in a referendum held tomorrow, showed that 41% of decided voters would opt for independence, with 59% voting No.

The result of the second question was announced at a press conference held in Eto, a community shop in Holton Road, Barry that sells children’s clothes.

During the press conference, Nation.Cymru put a series of questions to YesCymru chair Phyl Griffiths, Plaid Cymru Vale of Glamorgan councillor Mark Hooper and Kiera Marshall, who is seeking selection as a Plaid candidate in the 2026 Senedd election:

Generational difference

Nation.Cymru: There is a big generational difference between support for independence and those against it, with 80% of people who are over 65 being against it. In order to win a referendum, you’d have to win over quite a lot of those people, who may own their homes and not have a mortgage, unless the strategy is to wait until they are dead. How do you win over these people, because without a substantial swing in that age group, there’s no way that you’re going to win a referendum?

Mark Hooper: I can agree with the points that have been made. We need to go and make the case. I think that lots of those people who are in that position have children and grandchildren who are struggling – so there’s a case of how do you make sure this works for future generations. I think the other part of this, though, is recognising that while they think that things are going well, society is changing.

So the society that they want to be part of is becoming more tricky. When you get a society that is starting to break down, it affects things more and more. And that will affect their lives and their concerns, so I think this is a broader question. For me, an independent Wales needs to be a better Wales for the people who live here. I think our flag is better than the British flag, but that’s not good enough. It needs to make a material difference. That’s what I am interested in, and I think that applies to people who are over 65 as much as it does to people who are aged 25 to 34.

Nation.Cymru: There’s polling evidence that people of that age group are more likely to be lured by Reform at the moment than they are by Plaid. How do you think Plaid can change its offer in order to defeat Reform in that sort of age group particularly?

Kiera Marshall: I think there is also a role for young people in this. Young people need to go out and have these conversations with the older generation, about how different our future is from my grandma’s, for example, It’s a conversation I’ve been having. She’s from Sheffield and she moved to Wales, so I finally got her on board with it. It’s highlighting how bleak the future has been for my generation and how there’s just been crisis after crisis, and growing inequality and so on.

And talking to people and not just counting them. When it comes to the rise of Reform as well, it’s even more important. We can’t just turn to these people and say,’Oh, they’re not like me’ or this and that and so on, and isolate them. It’s about having a national conversation and really having conversations with people who are willing to have them. I’ve been trying to get more young people doing this in Cardiff. Results like this will motivate, hopefully, other young people to have this conversation, all across Wales with the older generation as well.

Phyl Griffiths: I think on the topic of Reform, it’s everyone’s duty basically to try and have these conversations with people. Reform offers nothing for the people of Wales. All they do is hold up a mirror to people’s anger and frustrations, and just reflect it back to them. Beyond that, there’s nothing. There’s no hope, there’s no progressive plan of what they would like to do for Welsh communities. I think we need to make sure that we drive that message home, and that people vote sensibly then. With regards to the older generation, from what we’ve seen with the percentages of younger people being in support of independence, that’s great. Traditionally when it comes to Westminster, you will have more of the older people going to the ballot boxes rather than the younger people. So I am very encouraged by the figure of support [for independence] from under 65s, which has come back as 49%. It’s much easier to rally behind a positive message rather than it is just to be hung up in negativity all the time.

Nation,Cymru: A couple of years ago Plaid Cymru published a document which was talking about the realistic route forward for independence. It actually suggested that there would be tough times for an independent Wales initially. Doesn’t that make it more difficult to sell independence to people? We’ve seen what’s happened with the Labour Party, and how its support has dissolved to a large extent since the general election last year, when people were hoping for so much better. People are very anxious to get material improvements to their lives. Is it a winnable message to say to people, ‘Yes, we want you to vote for Welsh independence, but don’t expect it to be the land of bread and roses immediately?

Mark Hooper: A good question, but we know what the UK delivers. The UK has just delivered 250,000 people into poverty. The UK has delivered 50,000 extra children into poverty. I know the other side of your question, that you haven’t put. I think it’s for us now to start making a broader question about what this future may look like. It’s tough now. . Today is a tough time. I think we – and this is the political party rather than Yes Cymru – need to start mapping out the vision of what ‘better’ looks like. I don’t personally subscribe to this time period of danger, because I don’t think we need to be that way.

But actually I really see the danger in staying in the UK. Unlike Phyl [who has been a lifelong supporter of Welsh independence] I came to independence when I realised the UK was finished, because it wasn’t delivering anything. And it’s just got worse and worse and worse. When you see a Labour government come into power, a party you expect to change things, do the same things that the Tories do, that’s a Westminster problem and it’s impacting on Wales. People are starting to see it. This survey was done before the Spring Statement came out. I think if we repeated it now, when people understand what’s happened to put people into poverty, it would be even more for independence.

But now we need to craft what ‘better’ looks like. Plaid Cymru, I think, needs to really give this some thought, because it needs to be helpful and it needs to be realistic as well. The space has been opened – and maybe it’s been opened by Reform and others. We need to jump into that and be bold – and look at things as taking less time than people might think.

Nation.Cymru: The other question is very interesting – linking independence to rejoining the EU. Of course, rejoining the EU when the rest of the UK was still outside the EU would be problematic because you’d have to have a land border. Obviously in any referendum that would be something that would be very heavily emphasised by the opponents of independence. How would you deal with a situation where you would have potentially an independent Wales that was in the EU and what was remaining of the UK outside it? That would create problems, wouldn’t it?

Keira Marshall: I think we’ve seen it with Ireland, for example, and they manage it. There are options for what independence would look like. We can still have a relationship with our neighbours and make agreements, and develop that as it goes on. I don’t think we’re limited. There would be a negotiation as that process would develop.

Phyl Griffiths: Definitely. I think it’s an argument that is thrown in to put people off the idea of independence – this bogeyman of a hard border. It doesn’t have to be that way at all. There can be a soft border. People travel to work and with family connections every day between Wales and England, and there’s no reason to suppose that would change in any way at all. It’s not a real problem at all. Going back to the previous question, about an initial period of austerity post-independence: aren’t we already there? People throw up things like the need for people to go begging on the streets.

Well hang on – we’ve already got that. When I was growing up, I’d have to go to Cardiff or Swansea to see people begging on the streets. Now it’s everywhere. If we truly are ‘better together’, why aren’t we better already? They’ve had enough time, haven’t they, to deliver on this – and they haven’t, frankly.

Mark Hooper: Can I add something. The shop we’re in today, Eto [meaning ‘also’ in Welsh] in Barry, is here to help young parents primarily find clothes for their children. Now that’s a great thing that’s happening, but that wasn’t something that was needed in the generation we were talking about – the older generation. This is a requirement to live that we’re having to put these things in place. They’ve had a long time and we’re seeing the consequences, and they’re getting more and more acute. This is an acute emergency that I think we’ve got to jump into.