Message to party members from Eluned Morgan reveals panic within Welsh Labour at the prospect of losing power in Wales

Martin Shipton

A pre-Christmas message sent by Eluned Morgan to Labour members across Wales suggests the party is in a panic about the possibility of losing power after the 2026 Senedd election.

Labour has been the biggest party in Wales for more than 100 years and has been in government continuously since what was originally the National Assembly came into being in 1999.

But recent polls have shown Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in close contention with Labour for leading party status after the next Senedd election.

‘Historic victory’

In the message, sent to party members at the weekend and leaked to Nation.Cymru, the First Minister states: “In July, we achieved a historic victory in the general election, securing 27 of 32 Westminster seats in Wales.

“We won because of you. Every member who delivered a leaflet, called a voter, or knocked on a door played an essential role in our success and in shaping the Welsh Labour Party we are today.

“Your effort means that people up and down Wales are now seeing the benefits of two Labour governments who share the same values, working in partnership to deliver for Wales.

“That was made clear last week, when our Welsh Labour government announced its Draft Budget for the upcoming year. The best uplift in funding we have had since the Senedd was established 25 years ago.

“Together we are demonstrating the difference only Labour can make:

* Every department will be getting more money;

* There will be more than £3bn to help build new schools, homes and NHS services. Under the Tories last year we had only £1m extra to pay for everything additional. The difference is staggering.

* We will also put Wales back on the path to growth – our public services have been starved of the cash they need for over 14 years with the Tories.

“Our two Labour governments are changing lives every day, and for families up and down Wales, this Christmas will look a little brighter than before.

“But last week was also a reminder of what’s at stake. Reform, Plaid Cymru and even the Tories are breathing down our necks.

“In 2026, we will fight the most challenging Senedd election campaign in history, with new seats and under a new and challenging electoral system.

“But I want to see us secure as many votes as possible and ensure that we are the largest party – continuing that 102 year winning streak in Wales. Because we have only ever made change happen by being in power.

“I want to be straight with you. In 2026, everything we have achieved will be risked if we lose power. The things people take for granted – like free prescriptions, free bus passes for the over 60s, free school meals for primary school children.

“There’s a battle on all fronts – and we must be ready to take the fight to them. We are facing a tough 18 months, but this is a moment of opportunity to show exactly what we can do and to remind people what we have already achieved.

“That’s why I’m asking for your help. We need you to help get the messages out. To remind people of the difference we have made and what is at risk. We need you to help amplify your success and demonstrate how we have delivered through re-posting on social media, talking to your friends and neighbours, participating in campaigning and if you can afford it – contributing to our Senedd election campaign.

“I am up for the fight, I am ready to lead the campaign – but I can’t do it without you.”

Desperation 

Welsh Conservative Senedd leader Darren Millar said: “This letter reeks of desperation. It essentially threatens people to vote for Labour in Wales, or risk funding cuts from Labour in Westminster. However, the people of Wales will not be fooled. We’ve just seen a ‘smoke-and-mirrors’ Budget, where money was given to Wales with one hand, only to be taken away through National Insurance hikes with the other.

“Labour cannot be trusted. Since the general election they have broken promise after promise. Pensioners have lost Winter Fuel Allowances, WASPI women have been abandoned, National Insurance has been hiked and family farms put at risk.

“There is one point in the letter that’s accurate: the Welsh Conservative Party, now with a new team, presents a real challenge to Labour’s chances of winning in Wales in 2026.”

Asked whether the Welsh Conservatives would retain free bus passes for the over-60s and the disabled, free prescriptions for all and free school meals for primary school children, Mr Millar said: “A detailed manifesto will be published before the election and unlike Labour when we make promises we will keep them. We are in the process of reviewing and developing our policies in advance of the Senedd election.”

‘Lack of ambition’

A Plaid Cymru source said: “Labour have been taking the people of Wales for granted after 25 years in government, and they’re starting to wake up to this fact.

“Their claim that an additional £3bn is a positive result of their ‘partnership in power’, when Wales is owed £4bn just from HS2 shows their lack of ambition for Wales.

“It’s the same with using free school meals as a Labour win – it’s Plaid Cymru that pushed for this after Labour voted against it repeatedly.

“This shows that it’s time for a new party in government, because we need a government that will fight for fairness and that actually has ambition for Wales – only Plaid Cymru can do that.”

Reform UK was also invited to comment, but did not do so.