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More poll woes for Sunak with warning Tories face ‘extinction’

15 Jun 2024 3 minute read
Photo Henry Nicholls/PA Wire

Labour is on course for a 262-seat majority, analysis by pollster Survation has suggested.

The analysis and modelling based on more than 40,000 surveys indicates Labour is ahead in 456 seats, with the Tories in first place in just 72.

Meanwhile, a voting intention poll by Savanta also contained bad news for Rishi Sunak, with a warning the Tories could face “electoral extinction”.

The Survation model puts the Liberal Democrats on 56 seats, the SNP on 37, with Reform UK currently favourites in seven seats.

Nigel Farage said the poll showed “the momentum is building” for Reform.

The analysis suggests Plaid Cymru are on track for two seats and the Greens would hold Brighton Pavilion.

Best for Britain

The Survation study for campaign group Best For Britain used the multilevel with poststratification (MRP) technique to model results in constituencies.

Survation polled 42,269 people online or over the telephone between May 31 and June 13.

It is the first MRP analysis since Mr Farage returned to the political frontline.

In its interpretation of the findings, Survation said: “Since Farage’s announcement to take over as leader of Reform UK, we’ve seen a rise in their vote share in national polling, and now we are seeing how this can result in seat gains.

“Unsurprisingly, Reform are making significant gains in places where the Conservatives are losing the most, and are currently the leading party by vote share in seven seats. Reform are also currently performing better than the Conservatives in 59 seats.”


The Savanta study for the Sunday Telegraph gave Labour a 25-point lead, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party on 46%, up two from last week, and the Tories on 21%, down four points.

It is the lowest share that the Conservatives have had with the pollster under Mr Sunak.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: “Our research suggests that this election could be nothing short of electoral extinction for the Conservative Party.

“The hopes of Conservative candidates are being shot to pieces by poll after poll showing the Conservative Party in increasingly dire straits – and we’re only halfway through the campaign.

“There’s a real sense that things could still get worse for the Conservatives, and with postal votes about to drop through millions of letterboxes, time is already close to running out for Rishi Sunak.”

Reform UK were on 13%, up three points, the Liberal Democrats up two points on 11%, the Greens up one point on 5% and the SNP down one on 2%.

Savanta surveyed 2,045 UK adults from June 12-14.

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Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
29 days ago

Instant Karma, Mr Sunak by John Lennon…

The Five Prime Ministers of the Apocalypse…

The Destruction of the State was a Tory Party inside job…

@Slash, Burn and Pillage UK they are having a leaving do…

Swag bags bulging and the NHS in special chaos to be picked off by the carrion following the pack later…

Fat Shanks take a bow…

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
28 days ago
Reply to  Mab Meirion

Crime Pays and Lies Work…Tory Mantra…

Steve A Duggan
Steve A Duggan
29 days ago

Polls polls polls everywhere – all slightly different. Which tells us, let’s just wait until polling day to find out the real answer.

28 days ago
Reply to  Steve A Duggan

You’re right. It was the same during the 2019 general election campaign when most polls predicted Plaid would lose one or two of its seats. Even the exit poll after the polling booths had closed predicted Plaid would lose one of its seats. In the end, all four seats were retained. These polls always underestimate the number of seats that Plaid actually end up winning.

29 days ago

Tory extinction is fine by me. Just fine. Sooner the better. They’re handing a shell of a country to the next government. Shame on them. Good riddance, let’s hope it’s for good.

John Brooks
John Brooks
28 days ago

Should the actual election produce the results these and other polls suggest there is a challenge for the left in the UK and also Wales. With such a Labour majority the MPs and MSs who consider themselves as socialists could split without the accusation they are handing power to the Tories. This would offer up a left alternative and scope for cooperation with the Green Party and possibly PC and SNP.

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
28 days ago

Rishi Ji the irony is Extinction Rebellion will be out of jail and around long after you have crawled back into your vault…

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