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New Barn Cymru Poll puts Labour in comfortable lead over Conservatives in Wales 

04 Dec 2022 2 minute read
Polling station. Picture by the Welsh Government

ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s latest opinion poll has revealed that support for Labour in Wales is at its highest since 2012.

The Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, revealed that 51% of people in Wales would vote for Labour in a General Election, up 5% from our last poll in September.

As well as swings to Labour, the poll shows that some Conservative voters have shifted to Reform UK, the party which began as the Brexit Party.

Westminster voting intention:

  • Conservative: 18% (-5)
  • Labour: 51% (+5)
  • Lib Dem: 4% (-1)
  • Plaid Cymru: 13% (-2)
  •  Reform UK: 8% (+3)
  • Green: 4% (+1)
  • Other: 2% (-1)

Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, says we’re seeing “historic” gaps in voting intention: “This is the second joint worst poll ever for the Conservatives in Wales going back to as long as we’ve had polling – that’s 15 years. For the Labour Party, it’s their joint third highest ever poll results for Westminster vote intention. And the gap between the two is now the second largest again that we’ve ever recorded.”

Difficult territory

Adrian Masters, ITV Cymru Wales’ Political Editor said: “The poll demonstrates that the Conservatives in Wales are in difficult territory. Despite his appetite to strengthen the UK Government’s relationship with the Welsh Government, voters are clearly yet to be convinced that Rishi Sunak is prioritising Wales’ interests.

“Labour in Wales on the other hand seems to be enjoying its strongest performance in the opinion polls in over a decade, which will give Keir Starmer and his team a boost as he looks to win the next general election.”

“The poll also shows that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has failed to win the support of people in Wales with 65% not trusting the new Conservative leader to make the right decisions for  Wales.

Barn Cymru is a collaborative partnership between ITV Cymru Wales, the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, and the leading polling agency YouGov. The poll aims to provide an insight into people’s beliefs, attitudes and opinions and to gain real-time feedback on public views in Wales.

YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,042 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between November 25  and December 1 for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University.


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Dai Rob
Dai Rob
2 months ago

Plaid way adrift in third. No surprise there.

Glen
Glen
2 months ago
Reply to  Dai Rob

Reform will probably overtake them by the next G.E.

Cynan again
Cynan again
2 months ago
Reply to  Dai Rob

Way adrift from the Tories by only 3%

DAI Ponty
DAI Ponty
2 months ago

The Tories are going to tay in Power till sometime in 2024 they know they are finished thats why the 2 legged RATS are saying they are not standing in the next election by that time they will be even more UNPOPULER they will not get any seats in Wales so Plaid needs to step up to the mark and even over the border in England they face being nearly wiped out this Reform party no different to the other bunch MAFFIA UKIPERS they never got any M P,s then and will not again

Rob
Rob
2 months ago

The Tories have put themselves in a lose lose situation, a situation they only have themselves to blame. The right wing of the party still act as though as if Boris is still a vote winner, he is not. The only reasons why Boris won so big in 2019 was a) to ‘Get Brexit Done,’ and b) he wasn’t Jeremy Corbyn. Boris also purged all the moderates in his party and dragged it even further to the right than it already was. Now that the UK has seen him for exactly what he is, where can the Tories go from… Read more »

David
David
2 months ago
Reply to  Rob

How far to the right has Labour Uk moved with Sir Keith worth £7.7million (express co uk)!

Cynan again
Cynan again
2 months ago
Reply to  David

Are you really quoting the express as a credible source?

NOT Grayham Jones
NOT Grayham Jones
2 months ago

Good news for all Unionisists – Starmers Labour is no different to The Tories and he has been slowly but surely getting rid of all the Corbynites – Wales Labour will be next to sort MD has said he is retiring soon so im sure a Starmer endorsed person will be put in his place. As a Unionist im very happy to see this poll- shows conclusively The Nationalists are no threat and all the hype by Yes Cymru etc is utter nonsense. Sorry boys to shatter your dreams.

Rob
Rob
2 months ago

Is it good news for unionists that support for Scottish Independence is now at 52%?
At this point what happens in Wales does not matter, because if Scotland does breakaway, then Welsh independence will inevitably follow. There won’t be much of a United Kingdom to be part of.
If Starmer can come around to the idea of establishing a Federal UK (and that is a big IF), where each of the four nations have greater bargaining power then maybe just maybe the Union could be saved. But Labour like the Tories are motivated by their own self-interests.

SundanceKid
SundanceKid
1 month ago
Reply to  Rob

It’s also a big IF as to whether UK Labour win an outright majority in 2024. There are two years to go. This time last year, UK Labour were branded “unelectable”, now everyone is treating their victory as a given. Two years is a long time in politics! Given the miserable turnout in the recent Chester by-election, it is doubtful that swathes of Tory voters in red wall areas are switching to Labour. They are staying at home. Without Scottish seats and given a reduction of 8 seats in Wales, I can’t see Labour getting any victory other than a… Read more »

Rob
Rob
1 month ago
Reply to  SundanceKid

Many tory voters might switch to Reform UK, and because of the nature of first past the post this boosts Labour’s chances without them doing anything. Granted 2 years is a long time in politics, however I don’t think there is anyway back for the Conservatives now, and the thing is they know it. I believe in the long run the Tories would rather see Labour win an outright majority than for it to go to a hung parliament. Because a hung parliament could make a second Scottish referendum more likely, or a deal with the Lib Dems bringing in… Read more »

SundanceKid
SundanceKid
1 month ago

Yes, Starmer is no different to the Conservatives.

That’s why the same poll showed his favourability rating is only 39% in Wales, compared to 49% for Mark Drakeford.

Incidentally, 38% of people in Wales say Starmer isn’t doing a good job as leader of the opposition – that’s only three percentage points less than Sunak’s disapproval rating!

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