New HS2 scandal, with train delays between south Wales and London until 2032
Martin Shipton
Fresh concerns have been expressed about the negative impact of the HS2 rail route on Wales following confirmation that train services from south Wales to London will be disrupted during its construction phase.
There have been concerns for years about the decision of successive UK governments to designate HS2 – a new high speed route from London to Birmingham – as an England and Wales project, even though the route doesn’t pass through Wales at all. As a result, Wales is losing several billion pounds in rail infrastructure funding that it would be entitled to if HS2 was classed as an England-only project.
Now, it has become clear that the building of HS2 will lengthen journey times between London and south Wales until 2032.
Disruption
Leading Welsh transport expert Professor Stuart Cole has set out in detail how that will happen: “Travellers on Great Western Railway trains between south Wales and London will have seen the extensive civil engineering works at Old Oak Common (OOC), a former railway and derelict industrial site just west of Paddington Station. Currently it is the stabling (parking) location for Heathrow Express, Elizabeth Line and Great Western Railway (GWR) trains and while we travellers see it largely empty during the day, at night it is filled with those trains. The new HS2 station to be built at OOC will see their removal elsewhere thus increasing train stabling costs and additional running time.
“One might wonder how does that affect travellers from south Wales bound for Paddington. Construction so far has had little effect on journey times. The new HS2 station (as yet unnamed) at OOC) will be built with a realigned east – west four-track route into Paddington’ This will cause most of the disruption during the construction phase; the increased journey times for south Wales passengers will be during blockades on the main line with service diversion.
“The disruption during construction until 2032 will, says HS2, be limited to each Christmas and at some weekends, starting November 19, during which Paddington station will be closed. The number of hourly train ‘paths’ reduces from around 50 to 15 and so a reduced service frequency with train speeds reduced from 125 mph to 60 mph will increase journey times. “Trains are to be diverted to Euston resulting in an additional 15-minute journey time. An unfamiliar station on an unfamiliar route and where in 2023 the Office of Rail and Road reported Euston as having ‘unacceptable levels of overcrowding’.
“That disruption may affect the hourly service from Swansea and half hourly from Cardiff which should continue but as yet [the UK Government’s] Department for Transport has not provided even the 2026 timetable. However, Wales again gets hit by a railway, the HS2, which so far has done nothing positive for Wales.
“The Sunday effect will be felt by the tourism industry as the railway is increasingly becoming a leisure business and trains from Wales and the west of England are often full and standing on summer Sundays.
“Once full operations resume one option seems to have GWR trains stopping at HS2 OOC only four minutes from Paddington. This may increase revenue forecasts, so improving the HS2 business case, but has no logic for long distance passengers, most of whom have Paddington as their destination. There will be a time disbenefit of three to 10 minutes dwell time so reducing the time saving following the nearly £3bn spent on reducing journey times between south Wales and London by 15 minutes.
“The Welsh Government and our south Wales representatives in Westminster who include the Secretary of State, Jo Stevens, now must ensure that Wales doesn’t receive any more negative consequences from HS2.”
Negative impact
Plaid Cymru’s transport spokesperson at the Senedd, Peredur Owen Griffiths MS, said: “Plaid Cymru has long argued that the high speed rail HS2 project – an England-only project that Wales has to pay for despite not a single metre of track being laid here – would have a negative impact on our country but it seems that that impact will be even worse than we thought.
“Plaid Cymru’s calls for the £4bn in cash that Wales is owed have been ignored for years by the Labour Party. Now we will see delays to our rail service because of it. You couldn’t make it up.
“The Department for Transport has not even considered the impact this will have on Wales any further than 2026 – a clear sign that for the UK Government, under Labour or the Conservatives, Wales is an afterthought.
“Labour have shown that they are unwilling to stand up for Wales. Plaid Cymru will. We will always stand up for Wales and continue to fight for the fairness we deserve.”
Rail funding
Meanwhile Plaid’’s transport spokesperson in Westminster, Ann Davies MP, has told the Labour Welsh Government not to “settle for less” when it comes to rail funding in Labour’s first UK Government Budget on October 30.
After years of Labour calling for billions for Welsh railways while in opposition, the Caerfyrddin MP said the Budget was Labour’s opportunity to “put their money where their mouth is”.
On Thursday, October 3, Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford called for a fair application of the Barnett formula in relation to rail funding. However, there are hints that the Welsh Government’s previous position of reclassifying HS2 as an England-only project is being diluted.
During the general election, Welsh Labour claimed that the sum of money owed to Wales is only £350m, despite the then Shadow Wales Secretary Jo Stevens MP having called for the Conservative Government to deliver the “missing £4.6bn of rail funding for Wales” in 2022.
In March 2024, the Welsh Government reiterated its call for the then Conservative UK Government to reclassify the HS2 project as “England-only”, which would result in around £4bn of consequentials to Wales over the course of the project.
Last month, the Treasury reconfirmed that it will not revisit the classification of HS2 and will therefore not adjust Wales’ funding under the Barnett formula.
Crumbs
Ann Davies MP said: “This Budget is the first real test of Labour’s commitment to Wales. After years of slamming the Conservatives for treating Wales unfairly on rail funding, it’s time for Labour to put their money where their mouth is.
“With HS2’s cost now estimated at £66bn, Wales should be seeing around £4bn in consequentials. If we’re treated fairly – like Scotland and Northern Ireland – it’s what we’re owed. The Welsh Government must stand firm and refuse to accept crumbs when billions are on the table.
“We’re not asking for a handout; we’re demanding fairness. Labour acknowledged the injustice while in opposition; it’s time for them to fix it in Government.
“If Labour fails to act, it’s not just a betrayal of their promises to Wales, it’s a slap in the face to their own colleagues in the Welsh Government, who have worked with Plaid Cymru to make the case for a fair deal for Welsh railways.
“Labour promised ‘change’ to the people of Wales. This Budget is their moment to deliver.”
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Here’s an idea for speeding up the so called “intercity” train to the south of Wales – don’t stop at the small town of Didcot.
True, but they also want to add Cardiff parkway between Cardiff and Newport. An additional stop between 2 close cities and a lot of disruption during construction. Let alone all the changes in signalling required between South Wales and London.
The Grand Union services which plan to stop here will run non-stop to London so will be quicker despite the extra stop.
The lack of stations between two close cities is a massive problem that needs fixing urgently.
It’s a fallacy that more stops slow down services because not all services need to stop and scheduling ensures those that don’t aren’t affected by those that do.
Maybe in 2019 there was an urgent need when in person meetings were prioritised. Covid has changed everything. Hybrid working and less people travelling on public transport and consequently less public transport being available. Get the numbers back up and I can see the urgency for an intercity train station in st mellons.
Hybrid working means offices are still needed. That’s what hybrid means. Your point is only valid for 100% home working and most companies have rowed back on that. So what’s really changed is the amount of office space needed by each organisation (less) and the quality now demanded (higher) because the office is now a place to define the company ethos, not just a desk to work at. Organisations needing less space doesn’t mean less office space is needed. It just means more organisations will share the highest quality properties. What happens to the low quality offices that are now… Read more »
Your argument about high and low quality office spaces probably revolves around new and old building spaces. However those older office spaces were built, they provided high quality office spaces at that time. It would always be difficult to plan 40 to 50 years ahead when building new high quality space. In these situations demolish and rebuild on the existing site. Don’t destroy good quality green spaces to build new offices because it is cheaper. We need green spaces for our well being, local climate control, flood defence and reduction, nature preservation and farming.
It’s got nothing to do with building age.
So why do we need a new gigantic business park with 15 storey tower blocks built on the gwent levels next to hendre lake in st. mellons?
The views and the peace will be unlike any other working environment.
They can build it on the old Llanwern brownfield site. The views and sanctity over there are to die for.
Not in your back yard then. Even though it’ll likely double the value of your property.
After the area is flooded, I won’t be able to give away the property for free.
With or without CP you’re living in a flood plain. This development should introduce new mitigations that reduces your risk.
The mitigations it introduces protects the business park only. It redistributeS the flood waters to the adjacent greens. When we get a 1 in 1000 storm like the one that hit South England around 2 weeks ago, those reens will fill up and flood us residents. When we get heavy rains, the reens adjacent to Ty Mawr lanes fill up to capacity and the flood waters keep on building up even after the rain has stopped and this causes the road to flood temporarily until the adjacent fields soak up this water. With the business park concreted over, this won’t… Read more »
I’m glad to hear that Covid changed everything. Does that mean we can downgrade all motorways to dual carriageways now?
Another raw deal for Wales. The Labour Party will be no more helpful to Wales than their tory counterparts. We are only considered when Westminster wants to take from us while Welsh Labour MP’s do nothing to protect our interests. Jo Stevens and the rest of her gang should hang their heads in shame. Little wonder those turning out to vote is low and falling. Little wonder the hard right is growing in popularity.
Cymru, Scotland, NI and England are becoming incompatibile political, social and economically and will need different solutions to proceed to what their populations require. They cannot be in the same monetary policy or union. Unless the UK becomes a confederation of independent nations there will be no future progress or growth for any of the nations within the union. The current centralised politics and economy with decrees handed down from London won’t work: The USSR system tried this and that didn’t end well. Scotland and NI already have governments that demand more power on decisions relating to their countries are… Read more »
Does any of this impact the new Grand Union services or does GWR now have a trump card to get this much needed competition kicked into touch?
With this financial ‘black hole’ the Labour government keeps bleating about there’s very little chance it’ll change HS2 to an England only project. Besides, the issue is probably barely on the government’s radar, Welsh protests are of little concern. It’s time Cymru stood up and got noticed. Gandhi got the colonial Indian government’s attention with the halting of salt production, for instance. I’m not saying we should all down tools but making a stand, such as Gwynedd council’s decision to stop paying the Crown Estates is a start. We are ‘Yma o Hyd’ and Westminster needs to know this.
Sources from all parts of the political spectrum question Reeves’ black hole. Starmer cheerfully announces a £22bn for Milliband’s pet projects, most of which will flow into the coffers of big business ( global corporates). In any case Wales ranks about lowest in the Red Fascist regime that Starmer is putting together, just another fringe bit that doesn’t even get the status of “colony” other than the extractive function.
The narrative that one £22bn could plug the other insults the reader.
That said, any kind of carbon capture that doesn’t produce visible end products such as building materials but instead magically squirrels it out of sight apparently forever must be questioned.
Who’s to say we won’t send down probes in fifty years to discover it’s all leaked back into the atmosphere via a fracture no-one noticed.
There must be a way to turn the pipes supplying water to OFF, similarly for electricty going next door.
Or just levy a reasonable per litre charge, perhaps similar to the RRP for Evian.
What about the masses of our people who are forced to use English hospitals cos we aint got none. How would they get their water? Bet you had not thought of that!
They can pay a fair market price for it like everyone else with the revenues going towards more hospitals.
Who are these they? NHS patients or the NHS?
Water customers
Water customers like sick people in hospitals. A jug of water will cost you a tenner. Is that what you mean?
David wanted to switch of the pipes supplying England. I merely proposed levying a fair charge for abstraction. Why is paying a fair price for a resource controversial? Letting it go for free is a defacto state subsidy and probably illegal under the Internal Market Act.
Maybe we could concentrate on getting the line speed up in Wales from the current 90mph to 125mph, that would make up for any delays.
It’s barely 90mph. Check out figure 1 in the Prof’s blog:
https://swalesmetroprof.blog/2019/04/03/wales-and-the-williams-review/
I believe it. I managed to ride one of the new 231s a few months ago. A nice enough train, but it’s rated for 90mph which felt wasted on the Cardiff-Barry line where I was travelling, and many places have even lower speeds. (Never mind that FLIRTs are actually built for 125mph). You could probably cycle the route faster if you had a suitable path. But hey, it’s not investing in rail infrastructure is high on the radar of NR or the DfT, why would they care?
We need electrification more direct straight lines to be a modern European rail network.
Not cuts forced by the UK on us.