New poll has support for the Tories at historic high in Wales
The first Welsh Political Barometer poll of 2020 shows the Conservatives riding high as the UK is on the verge of leaving the European Union.
Support for the Labour Party – after losing six seats to the Tories last month and as they continue the search for a new leader – has shown a further dip and Plaid Cymru has increased their support.
In last month’s General Election the Conservatives won 14 seats and 36.1% of the vote, their best result in Wales in over 100 years but the latest figures put support at 41%, equalling the highest this century.
Here are the numbers (with changes to the previous Barometer poll, conducted in early December, in brackets):
Conservatives: 41% (+4)
Labour: 36% (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-2)
Greens: 2% (+1)
Others: 1 (no change)
This level of backing could see Labour and the Tories neck-and-neck in Wales at 18 seats apiece at the next Westminster election as the figures project four further Conservative gains from Labour.
Labour: 18 (-4)
Conservatives: 18 (+4)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (no change)
The poll has more good news for the Tories looking ahead to the next Senedd election as they record their highest ever level of support for the constituency vote.
Conservatives: 35% (+4)
Labour: 33% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Brexit Party: 4% (-3)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Others: 1% (no change)
These numbers project that the Tories would gain the Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Newport West, and Delyn from Labour.
For the regional list vote, the new Barometer poll produced the following results (with changes once again in brackets):
Conservatives: 32% (+4)
Labour: 32% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Greens: 3% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-4)
Others: 5% (+1)
These regional vote figures once more have the Welsh Conservatives equalling their best-ever showing.
Allowing for the constituency results and assuming uniform national swings since 2016, the poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:
Regions:
North Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid
Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
These figures generate the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:
Labour: 24 seats (19 constituency, 5 regional)
Conservatives: 22 seats (14 constituency, 8 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituency, 7 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)
Professor Roger Scully observes these are good times in which to be a Welsh Conservative but cautions: “….. if nothing else, the last few years in politics should have taught us to take nothing for granted. Last May the Welsh Tories scored only 6.5 percent of the vote in the European elections; now they are buoyant. Within another few months, who knows where things will be?”
The poll, for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, had a sample of 1,037 Welsh adults (including a small number of respondents aged 16 and 17) and was carried out by YouGov from 20 to 26 January 2020.
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Lies, damned lies and statistics.
Yup, there’s nothing secure about the output of a poll. Sampling errors, distorted responses from respondents – all sorts of rubbish goes in, hence all sorts of rubbish comes out ! There will be no substitute for the hard graft of sustained communication with detailed fact based criticism of Government policy and its operational shortcomings. No shortage of ammo there to go for Boris’ Big Fib Machine or Drakeford’s Drip Dispenser. But it does require commitment to the task and a focus on major issues. Pet projects will have to be handled on a secondary level.
While we cant pretend these arent heady days for the tories in wales worth remembering a poll just before the 2017 general election also showed them ahead of everyone else – but it didnt turn out that way https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/04/24/tories-lead-wales-first-time
The next senedd elections are 18 months away, so plenty of time for boris johnson’s tory govt at westminster to renege on its promises to those people in wales foolish enough to believe his lies about brexit
True. And despite the significant increase in support for the Conservatives which this latest poll suggests, even on these figures a Conservative-led government at Cardiff still looks distinctly improbable.
Which is not a great thing for democracy.
I’ve never voted Tory in my life but would welcome a change a government in Cardiff Bay.
4 more years of Labour complacency and ineptitude is the last thing we need.
It’s time to break the ‘one party state’ .
Inclined to agree. In my now far-off youth I was a Tory supporter – though never a voter; you couldn’t vote till 21 back then! – but the Tory party of Macmillan’s era was a very different beast to what it is now. By the time I could vote, Heath was leader and the Thatcher reformation put me off voting Tory for ever! So I’ve never voted Tory either. But I believe you’re right about decades of one-party dominance inducing complacency and political deadness. More than that, there’s the risk of corruption and contemptuous arrogance, as I discovered when I… Read more »
If only, Glen. You are quite right. But we are still being told that Wales = left. Despite all the evidence. Welsh voters, the actual ones, are not being represented by Labour/Plaid.
For most brexit voters, Johnson has already done what he promised, he’s delivered brexit. Many people have now switched off to the realities and the intricacies of the brexit process. He’s given them what they want. The ‘fear the Tories’ is a failing mantra, especially in Wales where labour control health and social care. Add into that the resurgence of British nationalism and pride in a British identity, its more likely these polls are voting intention and not a poll of party preference. The voting system in Wales will help our parliament be more reflective of population than Westminster where… Read more »
The result will be the same old Labour Govt in Cardiff, propped up by Plaid Cymru, their little helpers. Nothing ever changes in Wales.
That’s how I read it too, as of now. On the other hand the Senedd elections are still over fifteen months away, and, as Wilson famously said, a week can be a long time in politics.
Plaid planting themselves firmly in the centre offering support to the tories, is not beyond the realms of possibility. Over the next 18 months labour in Wales will struggle to improve services and the UK tories will be ploughing money into poorer English regions, so expect lots of improvement to show comparisons. It’s risky but would left leaning nationalists support Labour if plaid pushed a real ‘Wales first’ agenda?
Looks like the boost is solely down to Brexit Party supporters moving to the Tories.
I’m not against taking the political temperature at any one point in time, but that’s all it is. There is no doubt that support for the Tories remains high, Johnson has managed to make Brexit the over-riding issue, solving it will mean every day will be the first day of spring. If anything, he has proved that you can fool most of the people most of the time – but not all of the time; once the Brexit fiasco is over support will evaporate. There is a danger in extrapolating such a wide sweep to next year’s Assembly elections. Circumstances… Read more »
Yes. Plaid really do need to say ” every view in Cymru is now welcome in our party, and we will work on policy together”. Jersey style status, enabling the protection of our language and people, would be a happy solution. I don’t know why this hasn’t been proposed to Westminster?
Welsh Conservatives should seriously think about this solution, which would keep things peaceful.
Bluster? Mr Johnson has a financial tangle regarding promises, is already being squeezed by the Americans, and has tough negotiations with 27 other countries ahead.
Green may vanish from the map, even Gwynedd, before we accept the truth we have avoided for over 80 years.
As Russia, Poland, Isreal, Finland and Hungary before us, we must learn what matters. The survival of our culture is all that matters. All else is political revolution, and that is not a Welsh revolution.
It seems that this poll is one that shows that Welsh Labour is losing the plot rather than a real Tory breakthrough. We see that Plaid Cymru is only starting to see voters turning towards our message and with no real Welsh MSM this is a real turn round. Welsh issues being addressed by PC are largely sidelined by the BBC as it represents its interests in London! We can only allow brexit to carry on; With Welsh interests including its farming industry being ignored it is only going to turn out negative. All farmers cannot diversify into few new… Read more »
Diolch. A very interesting post. 10 ups.
Finally Wales is waking up and seeing sense.
The elephant in the room – Brexit. I remember Thatcher having similar support back in ’83 after her crushing election win. Welsh industry was then decimated over the next few years as a result of her right wing Tory policies, the Valleys have not recovered fully since. Now more hardline Tory ideology – Brexit – will do a similar thing, this time targeting the farmers too. Does anyone really think Brexit will benefit Wales in any way shape or form? Hopefully the only good thing to come out of the poverty created will be the decimation of the Tory support… Read more »
There is a danger that some of our Welsh compatriots are losing contact with their Welsh heritage , [Anglicization] just as some of our English cousins lost contact with their Brythonic heritage with the regime changes that followed the coming of the Anglo-Saxons and later Norman French to the British Isles. The English claim to be British is in fact based on an appropriation of the term by the Anglo-Norman establishment in around 1706-07 with the Acts of Union between England and Scotland. Prior to that the term “British” referred to the Brythons living in Strathclyde, Cumbria, Wales and Cornwall.
As the term “British” has so little meaning for them now, many in Wales and Scotland no longer regard themselves as “British”, and see it as a term used by the Unionists and English Nationalists.
It’s also used by those living in the UK who have no roots in any of the UK member-countries. It is no longer an effective designation of nationality in the eyes of many Welsh or Scottish people, but merely means, in their eyes, that you live somewhere on the island. To talk of the ‘British nation’ is becoming a little absurd.