The first Welsh Political Barometer poll of 2020 shows the Conservatives riding high as the UK is on the verge of leaving the European Union.
Support for the Labour Party – after losing six seats to the Tories last month and as they continue the search for a new leader – has shown a further dip and Plaid Cymru has increased their support.
In last month’s General Election the Conservatives won 14 seats and 36.1% of the vote, their best result in Wales in over 100 years but the latest figures put support at 41%, equalling the highest this century.
Here are the numbers (with changes to the previous Barometer poll, conducted in early December, in brackets):
Conservatives: 41% (+4)
Labour: 36% (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-2)
Greens: 2% (+1)
Others: 1 (no change)
This level of backing could see Labour and the Tories neck-and-neck in Wales at 18 seats apiece at the next Westminster election as the figures project four further Conservative gains from Labour.
Labour: 18 (-4)
Conservatives: 18 (+4)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (no change)
The poll has more good news for the Tories looking ahead to the next Senedd election as they record their highest ever level of support for the constituency vote.
Conservatives: 35% (+4)
Labour: 33% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Brexit Party: 4% (-3)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Others: 1% (no change)
These numbers project that the Tories would gain the Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Newport West, and Delyn from Labour.
For the regional list vote, the new Barometer poll produced the following results (with changes once again in brackets):
Conservatives: 32% (+4)
Labour: 32% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
Greens: 3% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-4)
Others: 5% (+1)
These regional vote figures once more have the Welsh Conservatives equalling their best-ever showing.
Allowing for the constituency results and assuming uniform national swings since 2016, the poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:
North Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid
Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
These figures generate the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:
Labour: 24 seats (19 constituency, 5 regional)
Conservatives: 22 seats (14 constituency, 8 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituency, 7 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)
Professor Roger Scully observes these are good times in which to be a Welsh Conservative but cautions: “….. if nothing else, the last few years in politics should have taught us to take nothing for granted. Last May the Welsh Tories scored only 6.5 percent of the vote in the European elections; now they are buoyant. Within another few months, who knows where things will be?”
The poll, for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, had a sample of 1,037 Welsh adults (including a small number of respondents aged 16 and 17) and was carried out by YouGov from 20 to 26 January 2020.