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New poll points to Tory wipeout in Wales

02 Jul 2024 4 minute read
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivers a speech at the Welsh Conservatives Conference 2024 – Photo Peter Byrne/PA Wire

The Conservatives have slumped to a record low in Wales in a new opinion poll which shows the party neck and neck with Reform UK and 24% behind Labour.

The Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, revealed that the Tories predicted share – 16% – would be lower even than the amount they won in 1997 (19.6%) which saw not a single Welsh Conservative MP elected.

Whilst the poll still points to a clear run for Labour in Thursday’s general election, the party’s share of the vote for the Senedd Election has reduced to 27%, which could signal some longer term problems for the Labour party in Wales.

The poll also highlights that support for Vaughan Gething has plummeted in the last month, with the latest polling figures showing that 64% of those surveyed believing he is doing badly as First Minister of Wales, with 56% also thinking that he should step down from his role.

Westminster voting intention (YouGov MRP Model):

Labour – 40% (-5))
Conservative – 16% (-2)
Reform UK – 16% (+3)
Plaid Cymru – 14% (+2)
Lib Dem – 7% (+2)
Green – 5% (+1)
Other – 2% (+1)

Senedd voting intention:

Labour – 27% (-3)
Plaid Cymru – 23%
Conservative – 18% (-1)
Reform UK – 18% (+6)
Lib Dem – 6%
Green – 5% (-1)
Other – 3% (-1)

Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said: “The Westminster vote intention figures in this Barn Cymru poll are for the first time derived from an MRP model.

“This means taking a regular opinion poll – with a slightly larger sample size than normal – and using information from the census to estimate how different groups in Wales will vote.

“The results are a huge blow to the Conservatives, with only 16% of respondents saying they will vote for the incumbents on Thursday. This is the party’s worst ever YouGov poll in Wales and, if replicated on election day, would represent the worst Conservative performance in Wales since the 1918 General Election.

“While Labour’s numbers are about the same as 2019, an election which saw the party sink to its fewest seats in decades, they will be facing much weaker opposition in most seats as a result of this Conservative collapse.

“As such, they can expect to make substantial gains in current Conservative seats but may not fare as well in the two Plaid Cymru-Labour marginals: Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin.

The poll has recorded Reform UK’s highest vote intention figures to date as the party capitalises on the collapse of Conservative support with nearly a third of previous Tory voters now saying they will vote for Reform.

Dr Larner said: “While they are very unlikely to challenge for any seats in Wales, it’s possible they will finish the elections as the second largest party in terms of vote share in Wales.

“Like all opinion polls, it’s important to remember that there is still a margin of error and this is only one poll. But it is consistent with wider trends in previous Barn Cymru polls and UK polling trends which shows the Conservatives heading for an historic defeat.”

Adrian Masters, ITV Cymru Wales’ Political Editor said: “The latest Barn Cymru poll may give Labour pause for thought about its support here in Wales in the longer term, but the news is far worse and far more pressing for the Conservatives.

“Not only will that figure horrify Tories here, so too will the fact that the poll puts them level-pegging with Reform UK, a symbolic first that the party will not have wanted to see.

“The poll will bolster Plaid Cymru’s hopes of reaching three or four seats and encourage the Liberal Democrats in their belief that they could have a Welsh MP once again.

“But should Labour be worried about its reduced share? The fact that it’s slipping could suggest that the Conservatives’ strategy of warning against a supermajority is having an effect or it could reflect that sustained public criticism of Labour’s record in Welsh Government is cutting through, as is criticism of the still-new Welsh Labour leader and First Minister Vaughan Gething.

“And while the indications are that none of that will materially affect the results this week, it could suggest some longer-term problems for Labour here in Wales.”


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Llyn
Llyn
12 days ago

This poll shows that Monmouthshire and Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr would both go non-Tory if Plaid voters switch to Labour and Wales would be Tory free. Plaid supporters in Monmouthshire know what to to get rid of David Davies.

R W
R W
12 days ago
Reply to  Llyn

As long as Labour supporters lend their support to Plaid in Ynys Mon and Caerfyrddin on Thursday, which is only fair!

Llyn
Llyn
12 days ago
Reply to  R W

Of course they should

Barry Pandy
Barry Pandy
11 days ago
Reply to  Llyn

They won’t though will they. Labour supporters will continue to vote for whichever donkey has a red rosette pinned to it.

Matt Evans
Matt Evans
11 days ago
Reply to  Llyn

But why? Labour under Starmer have shown how little they regard Wales so voting blue or red isn’t going to change and having Yes Men/Women aren’t going to help when we need them to stand up to Starmer.

Llyn
Llyn
11 days ago
Reply to  Matt Evans

The Labour Party manifesto provides more powers to the Senedd, the right-wing Conservative and Unionist Party manifesto will take powers from the Senedd. Plaid work with Labour in the Senedd bit not the Tories – why if they’re all the same? The there is no difference between Labour and Tories frankly looks and sounds absurd and is counter productive. Plaid members basically saying they would be as happy to have a huge Tory majority in Wales and the UK as a Labour majority is laughable.

CapM
CapM
11 days ago
Reply to  Llyn

Labour are going to win the General election with a big majority.
Tories are out so absolutely no need to fear a Tory government.

Don’t pander to Labour’s craving to win the most seats mathematically possible.

Vote for the party whose principles and policies that resonate the most with you.

CapM
CapM
11 days ago
Reply to  Llyn

Labour are going to win the General election with a big majority.
Tories are out so absolutely no need to fear a Tory government.

Don’t pander to Labour’s craving to win the most seats mathematically possible.

Vote for the party whose principles and policies that resonate the most with you.

Rob
Rob
11 days ago
Reply to  Matt Evans

It depends on the constituency. Yes vote Plaid first and foremost. However if you live in a Tory constituency and the best candidate to defeat them happens to be Labour or Liberal Democrat then we need to vote tactically.
There is a lot to criticise in regards to Keir Starmer#s policies but he isn’t trying to take us out of the ECHR or impose national service on our children.

CapM
CapM
11 days ago
Reply to  Rob

Labour are going to win the General election with a big majority.
Tories are out so absolutely no need to fear a Tory government.

Don’t pander to Labour’s craving to win the most seats mathematically possible.

Vote for the party whose principles and policies that resonate the most with you.

CapM
CapM
11 days ago
Reply to  Rob

Labour are going to win the General election with a big majority.
Tories are out so absolutely no need to fear a Tory government.

Do not pander to Labour’s craving to win the most seats mathematically possible.

Vote for the party whose principles and policies that resonate the most with you.

R W
R W
12 days ago

Looks promising for Plaid in Caerfyrddin and Ynys Mon (and possibly one or two other seats). Like it or not, I suspect some of the Reform backers will return to the Tory fold by polling day to try and stop Labour from getting that super majority.

R W
R W
12 days ago
Reply to  R W

BTW, it’s nice to see NC reporting on a poll from a polling company that I’ve actually heard of!!

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
12 days ago

I’m sorry to sound like a spoilt brat but I will stamp my feet and scream and scream and scream if I see so much a tiny blue dot on the electoral map of Cymru on Friday morning.

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
12 days ago

There is a very real threat to our country from the anti-Welsh Extreme right. Be under no delusion these people are going to impose their narrow values across Wales and the rest of the UK if given a chance. Then every reason why Plaid Cymru should organise in the South Wales valleys, Swansea area, North Wales and beyond. Our Senedd elections are only 2 years away. The alarms are sounding. Now is the time to recruit new members and build the party in these areas. Plaid Cymru is the only progressive party now able to protect the interests of the… Read more »

blc
blc
12 days ago

I wish people would stop parroting the meaningless phrase “supermajority”. It has *no* meaning in UK politics.

Its most common modern use is in US politics, where it has specific meanings depending on the context in which it’s used.

The term is utterly meaningless here, in Westminster or the Senedd.

Flim Flam
Flim Flam
11 days ago
Reply to  blc

wrong, sorry. a Supermajority is required to make constitutional changes in the Senedd.

Annibendod
Annibendod
11 days ago
Reply to  blc

This is not correct wrt the Senedd. Certain changes do indeed require a super majority to become law – a most notable recent example being the bill to increase the number of members and change the electoral method.

Bob Sinclair
Bob Sinclair
11 days ago
Reply to  blc

Perhaps it’s time for a written constitution that can only be changed by a supermajority.

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
12 days ago

No Rishi, the sign above your head should read ‘Annibyniaeth am Gymru’.

Aled
Aled
12 days ago

In Montgomery & Glyndŵr, I’m tempted to vote Tory for the first time ever and have that discraced crooked independent Craig Williams having to work for his constituents from the opposition backbenches holding Starmer & Gething to account than put Labour’s anti-Welsh language candidate Steve Witherden close to any form of power.

Flim Flam
Flim Flam
11 days ago
Reply to  Aled

Yes! Vote the Tory in only for him to have to face a recall immediately after the election and lose in a by-election!!!

Rob
Rob
11 days ago

Lets make Wales a Tory free nation. Furthermore if the Lib Dems come second place ahead of the Tories then they become the official opposition. It would be Ed Davey who would be holding Starmer to account and not the Tories, and not Farage. It would be a huge boost to democracy and stop the Overton window shifting further rightward as it has done over the last decade or so.

https://stopthetories.vote/elections

CapM
CapM
11 days ago
Reply to  Rob

Labour are going to win the General election with a big majority.
Tories are out so absolutely no need to fear a Tory government.

Best not pander to Labour’s craving to win the most seats mathematically possible.

Vote for the party whose principles and policies that resonate the most with you.

Rob
Rob
11 days ago
Reply to  CapM

I don’t fear a Tory government. But I do fear the possibility of them coming back to power in 2029 under an even more right wing populist agenda. Therefore it is in the interests of all progressive parties not just Labour, but also Plaid Cymru, SNP, Lib Dems, Greens etc that the Tories lose as many seats as possible, making such a possibility less likely in 5 years time. Also if the Tories do fall into third place then they lose many parliamentary privileges that the official opposition gets, including media coverage. That would go to the Lib Dems. Regardless… Read more »

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