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New poll suggests Welsh Secretary and all Welsh Tory MPs could lose seats in 1997-style drubbing

17 Oct 2022 2 minute read
Robert Buckland, Simon Hart and Alun Cairns. Pictures by Richard Townshend (CC BY 3.0).

A new poll suggests that the Welsh Secretary Robert Buckland as well as all Conservative MPs in Wales could be set to lose their seats in a 1997-style drubbing.

The poll by Opinium, using the MRP method to estimate constituency-level results, projects a landslide 411-seat win for Labour.

It projects a vote share for Labour of 43%, Conservatives 28%, the Lib Dems 13%, and the Greens 7%.

That would see Labour sweep through their Conservative target seats in Wales, taking even seats with large majorities such as Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South and Monmouth.

Prominent Welsh Conservative MPs such as former Welsh Secretary Simon Hart, and current Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Wales David TC Davies could lose their seats under such a scenario.

The poll also showed Welsh Secretary Robert Buckland losing his seat in Swindon South, alongside 10 other members of the cabinet including Jacob Rees-Mogg, Thérèse Coffey, Jeremy Hunt and Simon Clarke.

Boris Johnson, the former prime minister, is also on course to lose his seat.

Chris Curtis, the head of political polling at Opinium, said Truss had seen a backlash from voters that was more like a “nightmare than a honeymoon”.

“But elections aren’t just about national polls so our model, built on interviews with over 10,000 voters, analyses how this would play out in each of Great Britain’s 632 constituencies. The results are stark, showing that, if there were an election any time soon, a 1997-sized Labour landslide would be the most likely outcome,” he said.

“One of the main causes of the Tory poll flop is that the mini-budget is convincing voters that the party is on the side of the wealthy rather than working people. If the government want any chance of avoiding a once-in-a-generation wipeout at the next election then they need to turn this reputation around.”

Opinium conducted a poll of more than 10,000 people before using its MRP model to project what this would mean in individual constituencies.

Opinium interviewed 10,495 adults in Great Britain on September 26-30.


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Hywel
Hywel
1 month ago

“It projects a vote share for Labour of 43%, Conservatives 28%, the Lib Dems 13%, and the Greens 7%.”

I wonder how many seats the Greens would win from getting 7% of the vote share under FPTP? Anyone like to guess?

Mark
Mark
1 month ago
Reply to  Hywel

FPTP is a flawed voting system. Ignoring all who vote for candidates/parties outside of the winners. PR is the best way to ensure that all votes matter! Unfortunately, FPTP serves the winners well and, particularly, in Westminster that means no changes are likely. Such a shame that we don’t get the grown up politics that a developed nation deserves.

Ihumphrys
Ihumphrys
1 month ago
Reply to  Hywel

Stunned that Tories still on 28%. Plenty of nitwits still.

Rhufawn Jones
Rhufawn Jones
1 month ago

Newyddion gwych ar fore dydd Llun.

The original mark
The original mark
1 month ago

Polls are a device for influencing public opinion, not measuring it.
Going by the people phoning in to radio wales, the welsh tories have nothing to worry about, still enough idiots out there denying there’s a problem, very depressing.

Y Tywysog Lloegr a Moscow
Y Tywysog Lloegr a Moscow
1 month ago

Radio Wales…. So Radio VALE (of Gluumorgun)?

hdavies15
hdavies15
1 month ago

The white flight/settler, retired, and relocated Anglo votes will stick to Tories like glue. People who want change will have to work for it as these polls have a nasty habit of fostering all sorts of delusions.

Frank
Frank
1 month ago

If we have to have a shadow conservative party in the Senedd it might be a good idea to have members who work for the good of Wales and not ones who work against any positive Welsh proposals. The tories will never succeed in Wales whilst they constantly work against the good of the country.

Last edited 1 month ago by Frank
Y Tywysog Lloegr a Moscow
Y Tywysog Lloegr a Moscow
1 month ago

Good. It’s not like they do anything.
Just a straight contest between Llafur Yoons and Plaid Cymru

Mick Tems
Mick Tems
1 month ago

Oh, good! I want to see the whole of the stinking corrupted tory junta crash and burn!

Gareth Cemlyn Jones
Gareth Cemlyn Jones
1 month ago

Gwynt teg ar eu hol nhw!

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
1 month ago

I dream of a total Cymru Tory wipeout but as unelectable as they are, you can’t bank on Hunt and TC losing their seats as their voters look to them for protection against us awful Welshy pugnacious trolls with that ridiculous unpronounceable language. I mean who is going to be there to advocate that Welsh identity should be cleansed from ‘THEIR’ country? As I say, I DREAM of a total Cymru Tory wipeout.

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
1 month ago
Reply to  Fi yn unig

I meant to say Hart. Sorry.

Frank
Frank
1 month ago

Is there a purpose for Alun Cairns? What’s he for?

Gareth
Gareth
1 month ago
Reply to  Frank

The promotion of Bristol airport and the opposing of Cardiff airport,his main reason for being in politics.

Gareth
Gareth
1 month ago

I feel that the Tory’s in the Senedd suffer from delusions of adequacy, the less said about the London cabal the better.

Malcolm rj
Malcolm rj
1 month ago

That Tory Burch have never said anything good about Wales How can anyone vote for tham if they love Wales and live in our country i think they will be dismissed from representing Wales come the next election.Good riddance too bad rubbish i say BYE BYE

Stephen Owen
Stephen Owen
1 month ago
Reply to  Malcolm rj

Yes the Anti-Welsh Party

Steve Duggan
Steve Duggan
1 month ago

It’s about time. The last 12 years has seen our standard of living fall traumatically. A Labour government will be better (it would be hard not to be) but ultimately only independence will see Wales more prosperous in the future.

Welsh_Siôn
Welsh_Siôn
1 month ago

https://twitter.com/i/status/1581268144244813825

Feel free to sing-a-long – if you are of certain age, like me.

David
David
1 month ago

Dyma ddiwedd y Torïaid

Stephen Owen
Stephen Owen
1 month ago

The Anti-Welsh Party

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