New poll suggests Welsh Secretary and all Welsh Tory MPs could lose seats in 1997-style drubbing
A new poll suggests that the Welsh Secretary Robert Buckland as well as all Conservative MPs in Wales could be set to lose their seats in a 1997-style drubbing.
The poll by Opinium, using the MRP method to estimate constituency-level results, projects a landslide 411-seat win for Labour.
It projects a vote share for Labour of 43%, Conservatives 28%, the Lib Dems 13%, and the Greens 7%.
That would see Labour sweep through their Conservative target seats in Wales, taking even seats with large majorities such as Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South and Monmouth.
Prominent Welsh Conservative MPs such as former Welsh Secretary Simon Hart, and current Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Wales David TC Davies could lose their seats under such a scenario.
The poll also showed Welsh Secretary Robert Buckland losing his seat in Swindon South, alongside 10 other members of the cabinet including Jacob Rees-Mogg, Thérèse Coffey, Jeremy Hunt and Simon Clarke.
Boris Johnson, the former prime minister, is also on course to lose his seat.
Chris Curtis, the head of political polling at Opinium, said Truss had seen a backlash from voters that was more like a “nightmare than a honeymoon”.
“But elections aren’t just about national polls so our model, built on interviews with over 10,000 voters, analyses how this would play out in each of Great Britain’s 632 constituencies. The results are stark, showing that, if there were an election any time soon, a 1997-sized Labour landslide would be the most likely outcome,” he said.
“One of the main causes of the Tory poll flop is that the mini-budget is convincing voters that the party is on the side of the wealthy rather than working people. If the government want any chance of avoiding a once-in-a-generation wipeout at the next election then they need to turn this reputation around.”
Opinium conducted a poll of more than 10,000 people before using its MRP model to project what this would mean in individual constituencies.
Opinium interviewed 10,495 adults in Great Britain on September 26-30.
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