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New YouGov poll projects that Welsh Tories are on course for electoral oblivion

29 Sep 2022 2 minute read
David TC Davies and Alun Cairns picture by Richard Townshend (CC BY 3.0). Simon Hart photo by Chris McAndrew (CC BY 3.0).

A new YouGov poll has Labour with a 33% lead over the Conservatives – a swing that if replicated at a General Election would doom Welsh Conservatives to temporary electoral oblivion.

The poll carried out on Wednesday and Thursday put Labour on 54% compared to the Conservatives’ 21%.

The results would see all of the Conservatives’ seats wiped out in Wales, according to the Electoral Calculus.

Under the new 2023 boundaries, it would also see Labour win all but one of the 32 new constituencies in Wales, with Plaid Cymru winning the last remaining seat. Only the new Dwyfor Meirionnydd would remain in Plaid Cymru’s hands.

Under the present constituency boundaries Labour would have 36 seats, the Conservatives two and Plaid Cymru would retain their current four.

A Survation poll published today shows Labour on a 21% lead. That would allow Welsh Conservatives to keep hold of Monmouthshire and Brecon and Radnorshire.

It comes amid market turmoil and public outcry following last Friday’s mini-budget.

Former Cabinet minister Julian Smith called on the Government to “take responsibility” for the market chaos of recent days.

He tweeted: “The Government must scrap 45p, take responsibility for the link between last Friday & the impact on peoples mortgages & make clear that it will do everything possible to stabilise markets & protect public services.”


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Welsh_Siôn
Welsh_Siôn
2 months ago
Andrew
Andrew
2 months ago

Truss crashes the economy, but first, meets will all the top hedge fund managers and tells them her plan about how they and all her mega rich friends can make yet another killing by betting against the pound. Lovely Jubley and we pay yet again.

Rhufawn Jones
Rhufawn Jones
2 months ago

Da iawn. OND – mwy o seddi i’r unoliaethwyr coch felly, sy’n gweithio nerth eu deng ewin i wladychu Cymru a darnio’r brôÿdd Cymraeg. Rhaid iddyn nhw fynd hefyd, neu gael troedigaeth calon.

Marc Davies
Marc Davies
2 months ago

The end of the Tories and confirmation that Wales will be Labour Central. Whilst the Tory losses will be a form of justice, Labour’s domination will prove to be a real setback for the Indy movement.

Rob
Rob
2 months ago

I went on Electoral Calculus & entered the seat projections based on this poll using the proposed 2023 boundaries and this is what I got… Labour………….571 SNP………………51 NI Parties……. .18 Lib Dem………….5 Conservative……2 Plaid Cymru…….1 Green Party…….1 Other……………..1 I re-calculated the figures again but this appears to be accurate, the Tories would be left with just 2 seats!! Ian Blackford would be the leader of the opposition, and the UK would be a Labour one party state. I suspect that the Tories have secretly conceded that they cannot win the next election, and therefore governing by ideology. But if Liz… Read more »

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
2 months ago

The Tories hatched a sinister plan to reduce the voice of Wales in Westminster by 8 seats but if we, the electorate, reduce Tory voices to zero, it’s not a problem. What a massive backfire that is and richly deserved.

Andrew
Andrew
2 months ago
Reply to  Fi yn unig

Catrusstrophy Liz. The A star and best yet recruitment force for an Independent tropical Cymru.

Arwyn
Arwyn
2 months ago

It’s unlikely to be that much of a chasm come the GE. Also, these election calculators are rough devices. They don’t take into account local issues. I suspect Plaid will do a little better. However, it would be very nice to see the Con Party wiped out.

Hywel
Hywel
2 months ago
Reply to  Arwyn

Yes, nice so we can have establishment Party B in charge for a bit. Great.

Arwyn
Arwyn
2 months ago
Reply to  Hywel

Well, it’s the lesser of two evils as things currently stand isn’t it.

Karl
Karl
2 months ago

Fingers crossed, none of them have any humanity and decency for public office. Absolutely revolting people with no shame as they take

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
2 months ago

If there’s any justice those treacherous backstabbing anti-Welsh Tory MPs like Anglophiles David TC Davies, Simon Hart & Alun Cairns will get their just desserts. And whenever it happens will be a day to savour.

Rhosddu
Rhosddu
2 months ago

Can’t see them doing much better in the next Senedd election either, even without fptp.

Malcolm rj
Malcolm rj
2 months ago

With MPS like them Three who needs enemy’s they are the worst aunty Welsh MPS that I can remember and I’m 78 years old God help Wales

Frank
Frank
2 months ago

No one will see the likes of Alun Cairnes and R. T. Davies out of work and in the dole queue. They will soon change their allegiance to another party.

David Smith
David Smith
2 months ago

Now there’s some heads I’d love to see on spikes (metaphorically 😉).

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