Plaid Cymru leads new Senedd poll with Conservatives in 4th place
A new Senedd voting intention poll puts Plaid Cymru in the lead for the first time since 2010, with Welsh Labour tying for second place with Reform UK.
The latest Barn Cymru poll carried out by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, predicts Plaid Cymru would be ahead by one point with 24% of the vote, with Welsh Labour and Reform UK both on 23%.
The Conservatives, whose Senedd leader Andrew RT Davies faces a confidence vote from his own MSs next Tuesday, have slipped to fourth place in the poll with 19% – with many of their voters looking at switching their vote to Reform UK in a Welsh election.
With around 18 months until the Senedd election in May 2026, the poll shows Reform UK equalling the Brexit Party’s highest ever place in the polls and Labour’s support dropping four points.
Senedd voting intention:
Plaid Cymru – 24% (+1)
Labour – 23% (-4)
Reform UK – 23% (+5)
Conservative – 19% (+1)
Lib Dem – 5% (-1)
Green – 6% (+1)
Other – 1% (-2)
Trend
Dr Jac Larner from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said: “This is the first YouGov poll since 2010 which has showed Plaid Cymru ahead in Senedd vote intention (albeit within the margin of error).
“Prior to the General Election in July we observed a growing trend of switching between Labour and Plaid Cymru support in polls, something which continues here: 24% of Labour voters say they will vote for Plaid Cymru in a devolved election.
“This switching has always occurred, but this poll adds to the evidence that it is becoming the political preference of a growing number of voters.
“What else has changed since July? While Plaid Cymru and Conservatives have held steady, Labour support has dropped four points and Reform are up five points, equalling the Brexit Party’s highest ever Senedd poll showing in Wales in May 2019.
“With the Conservatives on 19% – probably not as bad as they feared – there is very little room for smaller parties and, depending on the geographic spread of the vote, would suggest that they will struggle to win any representation in the next Senedd. If the election result in 2026 is even close to resembling this poll it will necessitate some form of cooperation between parties in order to form a government.
“Finally, while the topline results are dramatic, this is of course just one poll and we must remember that we are asking people to consider how they would vote using an electoral system very few will be familiar with in constituencies that don’t yet exist. It’s likely we will see a lot of volatility in vote intention over the next 18 months.”
Responding to the poll, a Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: “This poll is a historic turning point for Wales. People are recognising that Plaid Cymru under Rhun ap Iorwerth’s leadership is the clear alternative to Labour, offering the only programme of positive change to improve lives.
“If these figures are repeated at the election, Plaid Cymru would become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time ever. Meanwhile, Labour’s support is collapsing, exposing their failure to deliver.
“Promises of a partnership of delivery between the UK and Welsh Labour governments are ringing hollow. Pensioners are losing their winter fuel allowance. Record-high NHS waiting lists remain unresolved. There is no clear plan to improve our education system, no strategy to grow the economy or create well-paid jobs, and our public transport system continues to leave communities disconnected.”
Partnership
Barn Cymru is a collaborative partnership between ITV Cymru Wales, the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, and the leading polling agency YouGov.
The new YouGov poll quizzed a representative sample of 1,121 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between November 25 – 29 for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University.
The Barn Cymru poll usually features Westminster voting intention alongside the Senedd, but YouGov were unable to provide data for this time as they are still reviewing their processes following July’s General Election.
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Let’s not forget the point made in the article – margin of error. PC Labour and Reform are essentially tied. This does not surprise me. The real interest now is the prefence vote which this poll does not show. Polling technique needs to catch up.
There’s no preference vote, unfortunately.
By 2026 it is likely that Labour will be in quite a difficult situation so even more Labour voters will be jumping ship. The question will be will they go to a party like Reform that are about division and building walls or Plaid that is looking to address issues such as poverty and have a platform of inclusion.
Plaid must clearly state that they will never make any deal with Reform. Some supporters seem worryingly open to such a deal.
Less than 1/4 of those asked support any one of the political parties, but less than 1/4 of those asked may not bother to turn up and vote. With the vast increase in members they’ll soon outnumber the voters!
Rhun is the most talented leader of any political party in the UK. However, now that he has consolidated his position, he must tackle some sacred cows—chief among them, the perception that Plaid Cymru has a bias towards Welsh speakers. Whether or not this bias exists is beside the point; the perception undeniably does. To address this, all parties should come together to sign a concordat on supporting the Welsh language, allowing Plaid Cymru to disentangle itself from being seen as the sole custodian of it. Then, a major rebrand should follow, with The Party of Wales or another accessible… Read more »
Appointing a non-Welsh speaking deputy leader could help a lot towards showing that Plaid is an inclusive party for everyone in Cymru.
I agree most of what you have written, Dewi, Plaid Cymru must always be inclusive and seen to be inclusive of all of Wales. It will take a generation before the majority of people speak Cymraeg. The situation that Wales finds itself in now is we must be free and independent within a few years. Plaid Cymru will have to immediately reach out to those people (our people) that are considering voting for Reform UKIP. Make them aware that it was Reform UKIP that has wreaked Port Talbot town, reducing Welsh steel making capacity in leaving the EU single market.… Read more »
The Welsh election in 2026 is going to be very interesting Plaid should push home Labour are only interested in your vote and then do nothing for Wales hence the denying of our share of the money for H S 2 on par with Scotland and Northern Ireland labour has the same stance as the Tories for us Tories in Wales are finished now the Spiv Farage and Reform former leader of the Fruitcake party that took us out if the E U always on that right wing Channel G B news on the subject of G B News my… Read more »
A very promising poll, but still plenty of work for Plaid to do over the next 18 months.
As always in Wales there’s a clear centre-left/left majority. However, if the Greens and Lib Dems get over 11% that maybe a wasted vote with no MSs. Voting Green in 2026 could do the same as voting Green in the 2000 US GE which split the vote and gave the Presidency to Bush – this time in favour of Reform. Problem for Plaid with their bending over backwards to the farmers, backing the crazy idea of slaughtering thousands of wild animals to combat TB and supporting the farmers in their pollution of rivers with phosphates, looks unlikely they’ll be able… Read more »
Just another opinion poll. Plaid easily duped into thinking all is well, end up easing off on the effort and catch a serious cold on the only polling day that matters. Wakey wakey boys and girls. Time to start cranking up the effort and keep the pot boiling to the bitter end. That sounds too much like hard work.
It’s very likely there will have to be some sort of coalition in 2026. Across Europe many progressive parties are working closely together to stop the populist far right from gaining power. It could well happen here too. Independence is a must but we are also at a crossroads – progressive parties must start delivering noticeable changes now to improve the quality of people’s lives or face some very undesirable characters in power in the next few years. It’s already happened in the States. Let that be a warning.
Drakeford must be rueing the day he agreed to the 96 seat closed list Senedd in the period of Spring 2022. He seriously miscalculated as he probably did not think Reform would rebound to their current levels in the polls. He assumed that Reform would not get more than 12% of the Senedd vote and hoped that this would keep them out completely. This latest poll confirms that so called ‘Welsh Labour’ have lost so much ground to Reform that remarkably Plaid Cymru now take top spot!
We need to combat fascist ideas from groups such as Reform UKIP.
Labour and Conservatives have lost the trust of the people.
Only Plaid Cymru can protect your freedoms and liberal democracy in Wales.
I only hope that the Green and Liberal democrats will see come on board with Plaid.
We share so many policies together for Wales.
This is good but to continue to increase a lead and keep Reform out they need to build their policy platform and put forward a real, tangible vision for a new Wales. They need to counter the rightwing populism of Farage with a leftwing populism that will actually improve the lives of Welsh people.
There’s lots to talk about here; Reform being where it is should be central to any discussion. They’re clearly going to suck up the Labour discontent in the Valleys which makes it very difficult for Plaid; because the likelihood is Plaid will go into coalition or support Labour. That will count against them at the ballot box because Fartage will get up and tell voters thats what will happen. Why would discontent Labour voters support a party that will support the party they’re unhappy with? There’s also no reason for Labour to agree to a Plaid FM if in coalition.… Read more »
Or, we roll up our sleeves, get out there and tell it straight: voting Reform is anti-Welsh.
This bonkers voting system will inevitably lead to a permanent Plaid-Labour coalition.
And you’d prefer reform killing the language and culture of the country slowly? Get a grip.
By the time of the next Senedd election in 2026 cones around Welsh Labour being in power by then for 27 years will struggle to argue to voters than they can offer change with their record. With the recent polling showing Plaid Cymru in the lead, both Welsh Labour second , Liberals barely hanging on, and the Welsh Conservatives in the last resort saloon, has anyone asked what is Reform UK’s policies baring in mind most who are candidates are likely ex-Conservatives or those hostile to devolution. One of a Reform UK’s wishlist is their policy is scrapping net zero.… Read more »
Whilst this is indeed a positive sight, the combined vote for Reform and the Tories is deeply worrying. This is only driving my enthusiasm to help Plaid, to get the message out there that Plaid are the only party for Cymru and the ones who want an end to the plight of poverty here. We all must do our part. Be it big or small.