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Plaid Cymru take the lead for the first time in new Assembly poll

29 Jul 2019 3 minute read
Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price. Photo Nation.Cymru

Plaid Cymru have taken a three-point lead over Labour in a “historic” Welsh Assembly poll.

The poll shows Plaid Cymru on 24%, while Labour falls to 21% and the Conservatives are on 19%. The poll was carried out by ITV and YouGov.

Plaid Cymru are projected to gain Aberconwy, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff West, Llanelli and Neath, with Labour losing 11 seats.

The Conservatives are projected to gain Cardiff North, Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Vale of Glamorgan and Wrexham. The Liberal Democrats are projected to gain Cardiff Central.

The constituancy vote is projected to be:

  • Plaid Cymru 24% (no change)
  • Labour 21% (-4)
  • Conservatives 19% (+2)
  • Brexit Party 19% (+2)
  • Liberal Democrats 12% (+3)
  • Greens 4% (-1)
  • Others 2% (-1)

The regional vote is projected to be:

  • Plaid Cymru 23% (+1)
  • Labour 19% (-2)
  • Conservatives 18% (+6)
  • Brexit Party 17% (-6)
  • Liberal Democrats 12% (+5)
  • Greens 4% (-4)
  • Others 7% (no change)

Overall the results would place Labour on 17 seats, Plaid Cymru on 15 seats, The Conservatives on 11 seats, the Brexit Party on 10 seats and the Liberal Democrats on seven seats.

“These are again figures of historic proportions,” Professor Roger Awan-Scully on Cardiff University said.

“This is the first Welsh poll ever to show Plaid Cymru in the lead in for the Assembly constituency vote, while Labour support is again at an unprecedented low.

“Conservative and Brexit Party support has apparently edged upwards, with the Liberal Democrats continuing to head back to the category of a major party.”

Boris bounce

The Westminster projection is also notable, with the Conservatives taking the lead over Labour following Boris Johnson’s ascension to party leader.

  • Conservative 24% (+7)
  • Labour 22% (-3)
  • Brexit Party 18% (-5)
  • Liberal Democrats 16% (+4)
  • Plaid Cymru 15% (+2)
  • Greens 3% (-2)
  • Others 1% (-4)

The findings also show that support for the Labour party is the lowest ever recorded in any Westminster poll.

The poll projects the Conservatives to take Alyn & Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham from Labour.

The Liberal Democrats would win Ceredigion from Plaid Cymru, but Plaid Cymru would pick up Ynys Mon from Labour, the poll projects.

It also suggests the Liberal Democrats will win Thursday’s Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.

“These are quite extraordinary results, in many respects almost wholly unprecedented,” Roger Awan-Scully said.

“Despite an apparent ‘Boris bounce’ for the Tories, worth seven percentage points, the poll shows the extent to which the dominance of the two largest parties has declined in recent months.

“This is the second Barometer in a row where the combined Labour and Conservative vote share is below 50%.”

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