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Plaid Cymru tops readers’ voting intention poll

19 Jun 2024 4 minute read
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth launches his party’s General Election manifesto in Marble Hall, at The Temple of Peace in Cardiff. Photo Ben Birchall/PA Wire

Plaid Cymru has finished top of the pile in our voting intentions poll, ahead of next month’s general election.

The poll asked readers to select their which party they would vote for if the general election was taking place tomorrow.

People who participated were only able to vote once.

The poll which ran from Sunday (16 June) attracted 1,023 votes, with 414 going to Plaid Cymru (40%).

Labour finished in second place on 206 (20%) with Reform UK in third place with 124 votes (12%).

The Green Party recorded 102 (10%) while the Conservatives had 98 (10%) and the Liberal Democrats finished in last place with 79 (8%).

Slump

Meanwhile, according to the latest YouGov poll, the Conservatives are projected to slump to their “lowest seat tally in the party’s almost 200-year history” at the General Election.

YouGov said its latest study projects Labour to secure 425 seats, the Tories 108, the Liberal Democrats 67, SNP 20, Reform UK five, Plaid Cymru four and the Green Party two.

It noted such a scenario would hand Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer a 200-seat majority while it added Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is “likely” to win in Clacton.

YouGov used a technique known as multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) to model the outcome of the election in every constituency across Britain.

It said the estimated seat projections were based on modelled responses from 36,161 adults in England and Wales, and 3,818 in Scotland, between June 11 and 18.

Several high-profile Conservatives, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, would lose out if the projection played out at the ballot box on July 4.

YouGov wrote: “Our new MRP has the Conservatives on their lowest seat tally in the party’s almost 200-year history.”

It added: “Our latest model has 109 seats as toss ups – meaning that the winning party’s lead is less than five points. Sixty five marginal seats are contests between the Conservatives and Labour.”

More in Common

Elsewhere, a poll by More In Common projected a Labour majority of 162, just shy of its 1997 and 2001 landslides, with the Conservatives slumping to their worst seat total since 1906.

The survey of more than 10,000 people suggested the Conservatives would hold just 155 seats.

High-profile casualties forecast in the More In Common projection include Mr Hunt, who would lose his Godalming and Ash seat to the Liberal Democrats, and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, who would lose Welwyn Hatfield to Labour.

The poll suggested Labour would make gains across the North of England and the Midlands, while becoming the largest party in Scotland and winning much of Wales.

It also forecast the Conservatives being almost wiped out in London, holding on to only a handful of constituencies on the fringe of the capital and neck-and-neck with either Labour or the Liberal Democrats in constituencies such as Romford, Bexley and Old Sidcup, and Carshalton and Wallington.

Deep hole

Luke Tryl, executive director of More In Common UK, said the fact it is one of the more positive polls for the Tories “shows how deep a hole the party finds itself in” with barely two weeks left until polling day.

He said: “Far from the narrowing in the polls many expected to see by now, the Conservatives’ position instead appears to be getting worse and only a small move away from them could see them reduced to 107 seats.

“Labour on the other hand looks set to inherit a historic majority while remaining largely undefined in the eyes of the electorate.”

But he warned the “broad electoral coalition” that looks set to secure power for Labour points to “potential difficulties in creating a governing agenda that unites such disparate tribes” at a time of heightened “electoral cynicism”.

Elsewhere, the poll forecasts the Liberal Democrats returning to their previous position as the third party and quadrupling their seats to reach 49 MPs, roughly the same number they achieved in 1997.

Meanwhile, the SNP will be reduced to 18 seats, according to the poll, with Labour sweeping through much of central Scotland and becoming the nation’s biggest party for the first time since 2015.

The poll, conducted on behalf of The News Agents podcast, surveyed 10,850 people and used MRP.

The More In Common survey forecasts Reform UK winning no seats, with the Tories holding Clacton against Mr Farage’s challenge.

But the poll is based on data collected between May 22 and June 17, which includes the period before Mr Farage announced his decision to stand in the seat.

Savanta said its first MRP of this election campaign for the Daily Telegraph, in which 17,812 UK adults were interviewed, projects Labour would win 516 seats, with the Conservatives falling to 53 MPs.


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John Ellis
John Ellis
29 days ago

I’d thought of voting Labour this time round, given that I live in an area where the real contest has always been between the Tories and Labour and where Plaid has never really got an electoral look-in. And while Mark Drakeford was still FM I was pretty sure that Welsh Labour could be relied on to stand up for devolution. Whereas the London Conservatives, in their post-2019 incarnation, looked likely to do whatever they could to seek to dismantle it. But now Drakeford’s stood down and is coasting towards retirement, and we’ve now got Vaughan Gething in his stead. And… Read more »

Elaine
Elaine
29 days ago
Reply to  John Ellis

I live in a safe Labour seat with an admittedly good local MP. I decided months ago that I would vote Plaid so long as there was no chance of contributing to a Tory win.
Between the appalling events in the Senedd & the attitude of Westminster Labour, rabid dogs couldn’t get me to vote other than Plaid now. It will be refreshing to cast a positive vote for a change as well as using the only power I have at this point which is to reduce the Labour majority by one.

John Ellis
John Ellis
29 days ago
Reply to  Elaine

 I decided months ago that I would vote Plaid so long as there was no chance of contributing to a Tory win.’

That’s precisely the conclusion which I’ve also reached in the course of the past few days.

But that conclusion’s still going to be up for review dependent on whether voter opinion polling in two weeks time remains pretty much the same as it’s been for a while now.

However, right now there seems little likelihood of a change there.

Cwm Rhondda
Cwm Rhondda
29 days ago
Reply to  John Ellis

A vote for Labour in Cymru is a vote for the status quo, a vote for Tory scum is a complete non-starter. I first voted in 1979 for 70% of the time since then the Tories have been in government in Westminster. They have systematically tried to dismantle our public services and our communities. I have no reason to believe that the next 45 years won’t be another 70% of the Tories being in power. The only viable option is to jump in the Welsh independence lifeboat and sail away from the Tory scum and rejoin the EU.

John Ellis
John Ellis
28 days ago
Reply to  Cwm Rhondda

When I was young, and even on into middle age, I inclined almost instinctively towards support for the union, on the ground that, given world history, ‘better together’ was overall a more desirable principle than national separatism. And back in the ’70s I fully backed the UK joining what would become the EU for exactly the same reason.

But you describe in your comment rather accurately some of the reasons why I’ve found myself moving away from that position over recent years.

Richard Davies
Richard Davies
29 days ago

I know the only poll that really matters is that on 4 July but I really like the Savanta survey for the daily telegraph. It would be lovely if the tories have no more than 53 MPs, although I hope labour don’t manage to get anywhere close to 516!

John Brooks
John Brooks
29 days ago

I will be voting Plaid Cymru and said so in the Nation Cymru poll. But to be fair the readers of Nation Cymru are not a reflection of voters in Cymru and will tend to support independence. The 40% for PC is therefore pretty meaningless.

Welsh Patriot
Welsh Patriot
29 days ago
Reply to  John Brooks

 “The 40% for PC is therefore pretty meaningless.”

and yet it merited a Large Headline and a pseudo News Story?

Even though Nation.Cymru is registered with IPSO?

Welsh Patriot
Welsh Patriot
29 days ago

“Plaid Cymru tops OUR readers’ voting intention poll” ???
And yet the Plaid Cymru actual support is about 10-12% in Wales!

In other news, A poll in Train Spotters Weekly had trains as the favourite mode of Transport 🙂

Riki
Riki
28 days ago
Reply to  Welsh Patriot

Oh the irony of your username. An incompetent Welshman is far better to work with than a competent Anglo. Why? Because the Welsh one would be too stupid enough to know how to surrender his country over. There is always a level of intelligent and cruel intent behind traitors.

Arthur Owen
Arthur Owen
29 days ago

Tells you a lot about your readers,very little about the result of the election,even the ‘result’in Wales.

Riki
Riki
28 days ago

Reform with 12%? from the people of Wales? WTH?! A party that wants to completely get rid of Our Parliament and The NHS? Are people falling for Farage’s lies again? Have they learnt nothing? This is the sort of reason why sometimes, just sometimes I hate being from Wales. We are always shooting ourselves in the foot, what is wrong with us?

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