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Poll projects near-wipeout for Conservatives in Wales at a General Election

27 Dec 2021 3 minute read
Stephen Crabb, Virginia Crosbie, and David Jones would all lose their seats if the projection came to pass. Pictures by Richard Townshend (CC BY 3.0).

A poll has suggested that the Conservative party in Wales would face a near-wipeout if a General Election was held now, only holding on to two seats.

According to the Focaldata MRP poll commissioned by the Sunday Times the Conservative party would only hold on to Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire if a General Election was fought now.

There is bad news for Plaid Cymru too who would lose three seats, only keeping hold of Dwyfor Meirionnydd, according to the poll. It’s unlikely however that Labour would in practice win some of the predicted seats, such as Ceredigion where they came fourth in 2019.

Furthermore, the next General Election is due to see Wales’ constituencies altered as the number of MPs is cut by eight to 32, from the current 40. Those changes are currently open to consultation.

The poll does however suggest that the Conservatives may have hit their high watermark of support in Wales in 2019, winning 14 seats including six gains, many of those in the north-east of the country.

This poll has them losing all those seats including some they have kept hold of since the start of the current run of Conservative governments in 2010, such as the Vale of Glamorgan, and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire.

Across Wales, England and Scotland, the new poll puts Labour on 40 per cent and the Tories on 32 per cent. It predicted Labour would win 338 seats and the Conservatives 237.

The Liberal Democrats are predicted to win 11 seats, the same as in 2019.

MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) polls produce predictions based on the lifestyle and voting habits of particular constituencies to create an overall picture. It is believed to give a more accurate overview across the UK than conventional polling which projects onto constituencies the overall swing from one party to another.

Justin Ibbett, chief executive of Focaldata, said: “Boris Johnson has overseen a seismic drop in Conservative Party support across all sections of society. It compares to 1997, when Blair took power. The big difference now is that Starmer isn’t seen as a leader-in-waiting.

“But this poll still implies a Conservative wipeout. It confirms the trend we have been seeing in recent opinion polls, with Labour holding a strong vote-intention lead over the Tories. The Conservatives’ standing among the public has been badly hit by the string of damaging revelations over previous weeks.

“Indeed, that Labour performs so well in this MRP poll is more due to Conservative collapse than a resurgent Labour.”


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22 Comments
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Ed Jones
Ed Jones
11 months ago

Good. Bye bye. We deserve better.

Padi Phillips
Padi Phillips
11 months ago

But Labour aren’t ‘performing well’. It’s just that the Tories are performing abysmally badly. There’s a difference.

Let any who think Blair 2,0 (aka Starmer) and his joblot of pretenders offer any respite from the onslaught of neoliberalism be disabused: they’re Tories. A slightly different stripe, but Tories nonetheless.

j humphrys
j humphrys
11 months ago
Reply to  Padi Phillips

Absolutely right, token opposition only.
Welsh Labour should become what it says on the tin, and get us out of this slurry!

GW Atkinson
GW Atkinson
11 months ago

I only vote for Welsh parties registered in Wales. Anyone else is just helping keep the status quo of English occupation.

Erisian
Erisian
11 months ago

Only near – come on, we can do better than that, though it might be fun to pick out the kindest, most thoughful, reasonable one to keep as an exemplar for the others.

Barry Pandy
Barry Pandy
11 months ago

If this comes to pass then good.

It’ll be especially good to see the back of Simon Fart.

But a note of caution: Stephen Crabb got just over 50% of the vote in his constituency at the last election which is one hell of a mountain to climb so I think we need to be cautious of opinion polls projecting electoral wipe-out.

hdavies15
hdavies15
11 months ago
Reply to  Barry Pandy

The only poll that matters is the one where we cast votes. All the rest is just fiction and wishful thinking.

Mick Tems
Mick Tems
11 months ago

Roll on the day!

Dafydd
Dafydd
11 months ago

Why are Plaid seemingly polling so poorly? Discuss.

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
11 months ago
Reply to  Dafydd

It’s not Plaid that needs to explain why. Their aspirations for Wales are written in stone and unwavering. It’s the Welsh people who need to explain why they continue to vote for parties like Labour & Conservative that never do anything radical for Wales other than move the deckchairs on SS Britannia the sister ship of the Titanic.

Richard
Richard
11 months ago
Reply to  Y Cymro

Never blame the electorate !

Electorate =‘friends, family,’neigubours & work colleages.

Focus more on how the message is being put over.

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
11 months ago
Reply to  Dafydd

It’s called. Having principles. Plaid doesn’t lie to get elected. They serve all in Wales, be it Welsh or English speakers, where both Labour & Conservative primarily themselves & England.

Last edited 11 months ago by Y Cymro
j humphrys
j humphrys
11 months ago
Reply to  Dafydd

I think the very Left faction did a lot more damage than we thought, just as they could have done to YES; possibly the same people. I don’t insist on this, but it’s probably correct.
A centrist, business friendly, Plaid Cymru would do very much better imo.

Last edited 11 months ago by j humphrys
Mark
Mark
11 months ago

Could Labour or Plaid Cymru please please target B&R, it is truly soul destroying to live every day knowing you are surrounded by brain dead idiots willingly voting for a party that is openly throwing farming under a bus while telling the farmers there’s nothing to worry about.

Erisian
Erisian
11 months ago
Reply to  Mark

Lib Dems used to very well in B&R. Until little Nicky stumbled through the electoral wardrobe and couldn’t resist the Tory Turkish Delight.

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
11 months ago
Reply to  Erisian

Little Nicky betrayed the liberals. Unfortunate that. Increasing uni-fees was a disaster, but when the Tories campaigned against electoral reform (their own AV compromise, over STV) he should have led the Lib dems to vote to bring the Tories down, instead of following the same 1920s route to disaster. The Liberals declined after the split to National Liberals pact with the Tories in the 1920s. Only now is the Lib dems getting back to proper liberal values: Egalitarian Capitalism. They have now recently won 2 by-elections in near would be impossible seats of Chesham and N Shropshire. Where is Labour… Read more »

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
11 months ago

This would be the best Christmas present for Wales. The end of Covid and Conservatism. Both are viruses that have caused so much damage to Welsh society & democracy.

Cofid
Cofid
11 months ago
Reply to  Y Cymro

Their smug self serving faces are infesting these news pages sadly.

Argol Fawr
Argol Fawr
11 months ago

All well and good. But as in all classy pantomimes, every parliament needs a few villains.

Last edited 11 months ago by Argol Fawr
Grayham Jones
11 months ago

It’s about time kick all English party’s out of wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 stop being little Englanders and be proud to be welsh start fighting for your children and grandchildren future in wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 wales could be a very rich country on its own with out the English government taking most of it they already stole the coal from wales and now taking hower water get the young people in your town’s out voting for new wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Jack Bryn
Jack Bryn
11 months ago

Sounds hopeful, but come the day of the UK General Election many Welsh people, having read The Daily Mail or The Sun all their lives, will crawl back under the London blanket and put a big X next to the Conservative and Unionist Party, or, if they perceive themselves to be on the centre-left, they’ll plump for Starmer’s Labour (a tepid Britnat alternative to the Tories).

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
11 months ago
Reply to  Jack Bryn

The people of Wales have got to get better educated and learn from their mistakes.

There needs to better social and economic education at schools & colleges.
People should realise that to get a successful future you need to believe you can make it happen. Change will only happen if you make it happen.

Apathy will only result in other powerful groups (such as London bankers) making decisions that are not in your interest and can make things worse.

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