Poll projects near-wipeout for Conservatives in Wales at a General Election
A poll has suggested that the Conservative party in Wales would face a near-wipeout if a General Election was held now, only holding on to two seats.
According to the Focaldata MRP poll commissioned by the Sunday Times the Conservative party would only hold on to Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire if a General Election was fought now.
There is bad news for Plaid Cymru too who would lose three seats, only keeping hold of Dwyfor Meirionnydd, according to the poll. It’s unlikely however that Labour would in practice win some of the predicted seats, such as Ceredigion where they came fourth in 2019.
Furthermore, the next General Election is due to see Wales’ constituencies altered as the number of MPs is cut by eight to 32, from the current 40. Those changes are currently open to consultation.
The poll does however suggest that the Conservatives may have hit their high watermark of support in Wales in 2019, winning 14 seats including six gains, many of those in the north-east of the country.
This poll has them losing all those seats including some they have kept hold of since the start of the current run of Conservative governments in 2010, such as the Vale of Glamorgan, and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire.
Across Wales, England and Scotland, the new poll puts Labour on 40 per cent and the Tories on 32 per cent. It predicted Labour would win 338 seats and the Conservatives 237.
The Liberal Democrats are predicted to win 11 seats, the same as in 2019.
MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) polls produce predictions based on the lifestyle and voting habits of particular constituencies to create an overall picture. It is believed to give a more accurate overview across the UK than conventional polling which projects onto constituencies the overall swing from one party to another.
Justin Ibbett, chief executive of Focaldata, said: “Boris Johnson has overseen a seismic drop in Conservative Party support across all sections of society. It compares to 1997, when Blair took power. The big difference now is that Starmer isn’t seen as a leader-in-waiting.
“But this poll still implies a Conservative wipeout. It confirms the trend we have been seeing in recent opinion polls, with Labour holding a strong vote-intention lead over the Tories. The Conservatives’ standing among the public has been badly hit by the string of damaging revelations over previous weeks.
“Indeed, that Labour performs so well in this MRP poll is more due to Conservative collapse than a resurgent Labour.”
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