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Poll shows slump in support for SNP and Scottish independence

05 Feb 2023 3 minute read
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon appearing on the BBC1 Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg PA Images

Support for the SNP at Holyrood and Westminster has dropped, a new poll suggests.

The YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of 1,088 Scottish voters shows support for the party dropped from 50% to 44% in the Holyrood constituency vote and from 40% to 36% in the regional list, when compared to the results of the same poll in December.

Support for independence also dropped substantially, from 53% to 47% among decided voters.

SNP support at Westminster dropped marginally from 43% to 42%.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said she plans to run the next UK election as a “de-facto referendum” in the hopes of achieving a majority of votes north of the border and securing negotiations on independence.

Prison row

But the First Minister’s approval rating has also suffered in recent months, dropping from a net of 7% in October to -4%.

The fieldwork for the poll was being done at the same time as a row over the imprisonment of double rapist Isla Bryson was raging in Scotland.

Bryson was initially housed in segregation at Cornton Vale near Stirling – Scotland’s only all-female prison – before being moved to the male estate after public and political outcry.

The saga led to Scottish Justice Secretary Keith Brown pausing the movement of transgender prisoners into women’s jails if they have a history of violence.

Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, told the Sunday Times: “While the decline in support for independence is likely to be part of the explanation, it looks as though the battering the Scottish Government has suffered, especially on the issue of transgender prisoners, may also have taken its toll on SNP support.”

Brexit

The party’s depute leader Keith Brown said: “While we take nothing for granted, this poll suggests that the SNP remains by far the most popular party in Scotland, and Nicola Sturgeon is by far the most popular leader.

“Scotland is an enormously wealthy, resource-rich country – but under Westminster control, we face being part of the worst performing economy in the developed world, with Brexit an unfolding a disaster that is making us all poorer.

“The fact that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is now fully signed up to the Tory hard Brexit – and indeed backs their refusal to respect Scotland’s right to determine its own future – shows why independence for Scotland is now essential.

“Independence will mean a proper partnership of equals between Scotland and the rest of the UK instead of ever-tightening Westminster control.”


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Another Richard
Another Richard
1 year ago

This little article fails to mention that the decline in support for the SNP is associated with the catastrophic handling of Scotland’s Gender Recognition Reform Bill, an absurd measure which Mark Drakeford would like to see replicated in Wales.

Cathy Jones
Cathy Jones
1 year ago

What is so absurd about it mate?

Another Richard
Another Richard
1 year ago
Reply to  Cathy Jones

In a sentence: it is absurd because it treats sex as a matter of paperwork, not biology.

CapM
CapM
1 year ago

If you insist that biology trumps paperwork where does that leave those who are adopted and their adoptive parents?

Dr John Ball
Dr John Ball
1 year ago

Richard is entirely correct. It may well be that gender recognition is an issue, but the question needs to be asked – where does it rank in the fundamental, historic struggle for independence?
By getting herself involved in a minor woke issue, Sturgeon may have done irreputable damage to the cause – and there was simply no need.

CapM
CapM
1 year ago
Reply to  Dr John Ball

“..where does it rank in the fundamental, historic struggle for independence?”

That question applies equally to those polled that switched from pro-independence to anti independence based on the issue of gender recognition.

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
1 year ago

I used to take notice of a You Gov poll until I found out that the name Zahawi was behind it. Now it means nothing.

Cathy Jones
Cathy Jones
1 year ago

The Scottish people are allowing Saesneg transphobia* to cloud their judgement….and this is why there is no hope for humanity, the ease with witch people are manipulated JUST by using people, situations and concepts they don’t understand, is truly heartbreaking and dangerous. It is no wonder we are on the brink of a war that will wipe out every single one of us and destroy all life on Earth. Too many of us (i.e. humans) are ignorant and cowardly and uninclined to change. *transphobia, racism, homophobia, fat shaming and all of the other bigotries come from the top down…..they are… Read more »

Dr John Ball
Dr John Ball
1 year ago
Reply to  Cathy Jones

You are a cheerful person……

hdavies15
hdavies15
1 year ago
Reply to  Cathy Jones

Come off it. Granted there is a degree of manipulation from government but mostly insofar as they are ushering in some radical gender related changes by stealth. True enough there are some outspoken opponents but much of the elites that oppress us appear to see the blurring of distinction as a “good thing”. They are certainly not interested in allowing those who see the disadvantages much room for expressing their concerns, and I speak about concerns that are too deep and complex to rely on red top MSM treatment of the subject.

David Harking
David Harking
1 year ago

If I were female and I had been a victim of domestic abuse or rape, I would be uncomfortable if a biological male trans prisoner was in my jail.

Steve A Duggan
Steve A Duggan
1 year ago
Reply to  David Harking

From what I understand a trans person would not be in the same area as the female prisoners in a female prison. I suspect it would be the same if they were in a male prison for their own safety.

Cawr
Cawr
1 year ago

If people understood that it’s not possible to change your gender, no matter what you feel, then the SNP wouldn’t be in this mess in the first place and they would be over the 50% mark.

Steve A Duggan
Steve A Duggan
1 year ago
Reply to  Cawr

If only it was that simple but it isn’t. It’s deeper and more complex than just biology.

hdavies15
hdavies15
1 year ago
Reply to  Steve A Duggan

Mental health, perhaps ?

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
1 year ago

The SNP and Plaid Cymru should concentrate on the main constitutional issues concerning our countries and that is independence and self determination.

Do not get bogged down into divisive issues that can invite disunity in the struggle for independence.

Our parties should make it clear that Plaid Cymru and SNP policy should be:
To build and safeguard a fair, free and open society, in which we seek to balance the values of liberty, equality and community to which no-one shall ever be enslaved by poverty, discrimination, ignorance or conformity.

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
1 year ago

Have you come across ‘ William Jones of Llangadfan’ (1726-1795) by any chance…

Riki
Riki
1 year ago

I can’t possibly think why? She totally scored an own goal on this Gender recognition bill. There is plenty here in Wales that would gladly sacrifice their own Mother and Country for such a thing. The Scots ain’t having it!

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
1 year ago

What the Gender Recognition Bill HAS done is flush out the fact that Westminster WILL stamp on Scottish democracy (ditto Welsh) and they cannot now undo that action. They have proved that they will do it. It’s almost as though it was laid as bait and oh my, how they took it. Some may well be upset with the SNP over it but not so much that they no longer want Independence. That’s why this You Gov poll is rubbish.

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
1 year ago
Reply to  Fi yn unig

Democracy in general if Sunak, Raab, Cruella and the rest of the list of the would-be Tory Taliban on the eventual charge sheet are concerned…

Ghetto builders the lot of them…

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
1 year ago

The photographs of Truss and Nicola show the size of their respective ‘fish that got away’…

Evangelical politicians, a very American thing…

Last edited 1 year ago by Mab Meirion

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