Poll suggests pro-independence majority at Holyrood with SNP on 59 seats
The SNP would comfortably emerge as the largest party with a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, a poll has suggested.
Research carried out by Norstat for the Sunday Times in the wake of John Swinney’s first Budget put the First Minister’s party on 37% for constituency votes and at 32% on the regional list.
It also put support for a Yes vote in a Scottish independence referendum at 54% when “don’t knows” are excluded, the highest level recorded in four years.
Analysis
Analysis of the poll by expert Sir John Curtice suggested the SNP would be on 59 seats, Scottish Labour on 20, the Conservatives on 19, Reform on 13, the Lib Dems on 11 and the Greens on seven.
Such a result would mean a pro-independence majority of three seats at Holyrood, securing John Swinney’s place as First Minister.
The SNP are currently governing as a minority with 62 MSPs.
The poll put support for Anas Sarwar’s party at 21% in the constituency vote and 18% in the regional list.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives were on 14% in the constituency vote and 16% in the regional list.
Squeezed
Writing in the Sunday Times, Sir John said Labour’s vote is being squeezed by the rising Reform UK vote as well as a resurgent SNP.
He said: “Just 21% of Scots now say they would vote Labour on the constituency ballot for a Scottish parliament election, down nine points on Norstat’s poll in August and as much as 14 points below the party’s tally in July’s general election.
“The party is being squeezed at both ends of the political spectrum.
“At 12%, the proportion of those who voted Labour in July who now say they would vote SNP is double the equivalent figure in August.
“Yet 13% of the Labour’s July vote has now switched to Reform UK, up from just 5% in August.
“Consequently, the party’s support is down among both supporters and opponents of independence.”
Sir John said the blame for Labour’s decline appeared to lie with the Prime Minister, whose net approval rating was at minus 32%.
Independence
Commenting on the poll, SNP MSP Emma Harper said: “Increasing support for independence is a sign that the people of Scotland know that Westminster, no matter who is in government, is failing them – a better future as an independent nation is possible.
“After extensively listening to the public, the SNP Government has produced a budget that benefits everyone in Scotland and delivers on the people’s priorities – parliament must now back it.
“The SNP will continue to set out a better alternative, demonstrating how independence can allow us to properly tackle the challenges facing people in Scotland and build a better, fairer, more prosperous society for everyone.”
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar was asked about the poll on the BBC’s Sunday Show.
He pointed to recent council by-elections around Scotland, saying the SNP have lost 19 of the last 20 of these.
On the Prime Minister, he said: “I do actually think Keir Starmer is doing a good job, because he’s cleaning up the mess left by the Tories.”
He added: “Ultimately, he has come into a situation where the Tories wrecked our public finances, wrecked the public services and had a flatlining economy.”
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This poll seems to undermine the (I find) rather dubious proposition, put out by the Wales Governance Centre, that Labour voters in Wales won’t move over to vote for Reform.
As is the case with the latest Welsh polling, the Westminster duopoly are hitting record lows; in terms of combined voting intention.
42% here intending to vote for the Labour-Tory Westminster status quo duopoly here, and 35% in Scotland.
Those figures don’t indicate a stable future for the Union.
Council by-elections results under STV can be very deceptive and often tell us little about the views of the electorate in the ward. If the party you support only picked up the last seat in say a four member seat and that seat is the one up for re-election there is very little chance of the party retaining the seat in the by-election which effectively becomes a first past the post election.
For a while now those involved in a smear campaign thought that the SNP threat was nullified and that Labour would sweep to victory in Scotland in 2026. How wrong they are. FM John Sweeney has brought back confidence to the SNP brand since the controversy involving Nicola Sturgeon’s husband. And those voters in Scotland see the Tories going further and further to the extreme-right to combat the threat of Reform UK and UK Labour the same. See Since the inception of devolution the Scottish government has had their hands tied by Whitehall, as have Wales. The idea that Scottish… Read more »
It seems to be obvious to all involved that the “union” isn’t working in any shape or form. It really is time for the occupied territories to be allowed to move forward and thrive, but I doubt the abusive partner keeping us captive would allow that.