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Reform predicted to secure 13 MPs in party’s first major run at Parliament

05 Jul 2024 3 minute read
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage speaking to the media after the rally for his party at Birmingham’s NEC, while on the General Election campaign trail. Photo Matthew Cooper/PA Wire

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is set to win 13 seats, according to the exit poll and has polled ahead of the Conservatives in the first two declared counts.

The party, which was only formed in 2018, currently only has one MP, Lee Anderson, who defected from the Conservatives.

It would be the first time Reform have managed to secure an MP at the ballot box.

Mr Farage had earlier declined to say what number of MPs they would classify as a win, but 13 elected representatives is higher than predictions by most polls.

Mr Farage has tried and failed to get elected to Parliament seven times in the past, and if polls are correct it may be the eighth time lucky.

The exit poll by Ipsos UK for Sky News, the BBC and ITV News, said Reform UK have a likelihood of 99%-plus that Farage will win the seat in Clacton, Essex.

Early boost

The party has also seen an early boost as they polled ahead of the Conservatives in Houghton and Sunderland South, pushing the Tories into third place.

Reform UK candidate Sam Woods-Brass received 11,668 votes to Conservative candidate Chris Burnicle’s 5,514.

Labour’s shadow education secretary Bridget Phillipson won the constituency with 18,837 votes, achieving just over 47% of the vote share and a majority of 7,169.

Reform has seen similar success on the second seat of the night, coming in second place in Blyth and Ashington with 10,857 votes, as Labour secured 20,030 votes and the Tories came third with 6,121 votes.

It has been said that Reform’s wide but thin support would not facilitate their success in a first-past-the-post system and Mr Farage has been vocal about the need for changes to the electoral system.

So, the early successes will bolster Reform’s confidence as Mr Farage had previously said this election was only the “tip of the iceberg” for the start-up party as they build to bigger success in 2029.


Mr Farage’s electoral agent and Reform UK councillor Peter Harris has said their party leader is “up for the challenge” of facing up to a Labour government and the exit poll prediction of 13 seats is “hugely exciting”.

Mr Harris told the PA news agency: “Anything’s possible if enough good decent people want change, then they can vote for it, as Brexit has proved before.

“So, we were always hoping for multiple seats, 13 I’d like even more than that, really. So I think we wait and see once all the votes are counted we’ll see how many we’ve actually got, but yeah, hugely exciting.

“Obviously, I’m completely focused on Clacton and our candidate here, Nigel Farage, we’re extremely confident that he’s going to be one of those 13 seats that gets elected to Westminster.”

On Mr Farage’s potential impact in Westminster, Mr Harris said: “He stood alone in the European Parliament, and he got the changes that he wanted and as he said to the European Parliament that when he first got there, they laughed at him and then when we left he said ‘well, you’re not laughing now’.

“So you know, I can see Nigel will be a huge voice not just for Clacton but a huge voice for so many people in this country that have felt abandoned and betrayed. So, yeah, I think Nigel is up for the challenge.”

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Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
9 days ago

“Nasty, brutish and short” Reform School of Thought…

9 days ago
Reply to  Mab Meirion

Also a good description of their fuehrer, NF

9 days ago

Thanks to the English centric media given them insane amounts of air time. So convenient they come along just when the Tories had their worst ever tenure. It stinks of a set up designed to soften the blow for the Tories, and yet again people buy into it.

Sneb yn gwbod.
Sneb yn gwbod.
9 days ago
Reply to  Riki

They got a lot of coverage here so not English centric.

9 days ago

Fringe nutters ReformNF seat predictions seem to have topped out at 4 seats with none additional predicted . If the media would stop giving them airtime they would disappear.
But since the Tories are now just unelectable clowns, Reform will win buttloads of votes next time, expanding their base from the usual confused elderly bigots. Lib Dems need to position themselves as broad enough to encompass the moderate Tories and deny the moderates lurching to the extreme right and go to ReformNF

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