Reform would win 17 Labour seats in Wales if a general election was held now – new poll
Martin Shipton
Reform UK would win a majority of Wales’ seats if a Westminster general election were held now, according to a ‘megapoll’ undertaken by More in Common for The Times.
The right-wing party led by Nigel Farage would have 17 MPs from Wales, with Labour on 7, Plaid Cymru on 5 and the Conservatives on 3.
Across Britain, Reform, Labour and the Conservatives would all get 24% of the vote, to the nearest percentage point. Modelling of the survey results puts Labour on 24.5% , the Conservatives on 24.3% and Reform on 23.7%.
In terms of seats, however, Reform would become the biggest party with 180 seats. Labour and the Conservatives would both be on 165 seats, the Liberal Democrats would win 67, the SNP 35, Independents 10, Plaid Cymru 5 and the Greens 4.
The 18 seats in Northern Ireland were not included in the poll.
In Wales, Labour would lose 17 seats to Reform, three to the Conservatives and 1 to Plaid Cymru.
Reform, which currently has no MPs elected from Wales, would unseat Labour in Aberafan Maesteg, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Clwyd North, Llanelli, Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, Mid and South Pembrokeshire, Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, Neath and Swansea East, Newport East, Newport West and Islwyn, Pontypridd, Rhondda and Ogmore, Swansea West, Torfaen and Vale of Glamorgan.
The Conservatives would win Clwyd East, Monmouthshire and Wrexham from Labour, Plaid Cymru would win Bangor and Aberconwy from Labour and Reform would defeat the Liberal Democrats in Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe, currently their only seat in Wales.
Across Britain, Labour could lose 246 MPs, including 10 Cabinet ministers, with major losses in the so-called red wall, Scotland and the Welsh Valleys.
Fracturing
Based on polling of more than 16,000 people, the data suggests a potential fracturing of the vote that could reshape the electoral map, with Labour’s support splintering left and right.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband are among those who could lose to candidates from Reform.
The model also suggests an Independent gain in Health Secretary Wes Streeting’s London seat of Ilford North.
The next general election is expected to be held no later than August 2029.
More in Common director Luke Tryl said the data suggests that the voter coalition behind Labour’s landslide victory last summer has disintegrated.
“We are a long way from a general election and trying to predict the result is a fool’s errand, but what we can say for certain is that, as of today, British politics has fragmented to an unprecedented level,” he said.
“The coalition for change that elected Keir Starmer’s government has splintered right and left.
“Labour… having secured a historic victory now find themselves on the wrong side of a disillusioned electorate frustrated at the slow pace of change and some of the government’s early missteps.”
Detailed projections in Wales’ 32 constituencies:
Aberafan Maesteg
Reform 32%
Labour 24%
Conservative 19%
Plaid Cymru 10%
Green 5%
Lib Dem 3%
Others 5%
REFORM GAIN FROM LABOUR
Alyn and Deeside
Labour 28%
Reform 25%
Conservative 23%
Green 9%
Plaid Cymru 7%
Lib Dem 5%
Others 3%
LABOUR HOLD
Bangor Aberconwy
Plaid Cymru 27%
Reform 25%
Labour 23%
Conservative 16%
Others 3%
Lib Dem 4%
Green 2%
PLAID CYMRU GAIN FROM LABOUR
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
Labour 24%
Conservative 21%
Reform 17%
Green 13%
Others 12%
Plaid Cymru 7%
Lib Dem 6%
LABOUR HOLD
Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe
Reform 38%
Conservative 22%
Lib Dem 21%
Labour 12%
Plaid Cymru 5%
Green 2%
Others 1%
REFORM GAIN FROM LIB DEM
Bridgend
Reform 35%
Labour 26%
Conservative 20%
Plaid Cymru 10%
Green 4%
Others 3%
Lib Dem 2%
REFORM GAIN FROM LABOUR
Caerfyrddin
Plaid Cymru 30%
Reform 27%
Conservative 16%
Labour 15%
Lib Dem 5%
Others 4%
Green 2%
PLAID CYMRU HOLD
Caerphilly
Reform 28%
Labour 25%
Conservative 18%
Plaid Cymru 17%
Green 5%
Lib Dem 4%
Others 3%
REFORM GAIN FROM LABOUR
Cardiff East
Labour 21%
Reform 19%
Lib Dem 17%
Conservative 15%
Plaid Cymru 14%
Green 10%
Others 4%
LABOUR HOLD
Cardiff North
Labour 27%
Conservative 19%
Green 19%
Reform 14%
Plaid Cymru 12%
Lib Dem 8%
Others 1%
LABOUR HOLD
Cardiff South and Penarth
Labour 27%
Reform 17%
Green 17%
Plaid Cymru 16%
Conservative 12%
Lib Dem 8%
Others 2%
LABOUR HOLD
Cardiff West
Labour 22%
Conservative 22%
Reform 19%
Plaid Cymru 16%
Green 9%
Lib Dem 8%
Others 4%
LABOUR HOLD
Ceredigion Preseli
Plaid Cymru 39%
Reform 19%
Lib Dem 18%
Conservative 10%
Labour 7%
Green 3%
Others 4%
PLAID CYMRU HOLD
Clwyd East
Conservative 28%
Reform 27%
Labour 24%
Plaid Cymru 9%
Green 7%
Lib Dem 4%
Others 2%
CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM LABOUR
Clwyd North
Reform 34%
Conservative 27%
Labour 22%
Plaid Cymru 10%
Green 3%
Lib Dem 2%
Others 2%
REFORM GAIN FROM LABOUR
Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Plaid Cymru 45%
Reform 14%
Lab Dem 13%
Labour 9%
Conservative 8%
Others 8%
Green 3%
PLAID CYMRU HOLD
Gower
Labour 28%
Conservative 23%
Reform 23%
Green 11%
Plaid Cymru 10%
Lib Dem 3%
Others 1%
LABOUR HOLD
Llanelli
Reform 39%
Plaid Cymru 24%
Labour 18%
Conservative 11%
Lib Dem 2%
Others 5%
Green 1%
REFORM GAIN FROM LABOUR
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare
Reform 34%
Labour 23%
Conservative 17%
Plaid Cymru 11%
Lib Dem 5%
Others 5%
Green 4%
REFORM GAIN FROM LABOUR
Mid and South Pembrokeshire
Reform 33%
Conservative 32%
Labour 19%
Green 7%
Plaid Cymru 5%
Lib Dem 3%
Others 2%
REFORM GAIN FROM LABOUR
Monmouthshire
Conservative 31%
Labour 26%
Reform 22%
Green 14%
Plaid Cymru 4%
Lib Dem 2%
Others 1%
CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM LABOUR
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr
Reform 27%
Conservative 25%
Labour 18%
Lib Dem 12%
Green 10%
Plaid Cymru 8%
Others 2%
REFORM GAIN FROM LABOUR
Neath and Swansea East
Reform 36%
Labour 24%
Conservative 16%
Plaid Cymru 15%
Green 4%
Lib Dem 3%
Others 2%
REFORM GAIN FROM LABOUR
Newport East
Reform 26%
Labour 23%
Lib Dem 6%
Conservative 22%
Green 10%
Plaid Cymru 7%
Others 6%
REFORM GAIN FROM LABOUR
Newport West and Islwyn
Reform 29%
Labour 27%
Conservative 22%
Plaid Cymru 10%
Green 7%
Lib Dem 3%
Others 3%
REFORM GAIN FROM LABOUR
Pontypridd
Reform 26%
Labour 24%
Conservative 18%
Plaid Cymru 14%
Green 8%
Lib Dem 6%
Others 5%
REFORM GAIN FROM LABOUR
Rhondda and Ogmore
Reform 31%
Labour 22%
Conservative 18%
Plaid Cymru 9%
Lib Dem 7%
Green 7%
Others 6%
REFORM GAIN FROM LABOUR
Swansea West
Reform 24%
Labour 21%
Paid Cymru 18%
Conservative 16%
Lib Dem 9%
Green 9%
Others 4%
REFORM GAIN FROM LABOUR
Torfaen
Reform 33%
Labour 25%
Conservative 22%
Plaid Cymru 8%
Green 6%
Others 3%
Lib Dem 2%
REFORM GAIN FROM LABOUR
Vale of Glamorgan
Reform 33%
Conservative 26%
Labour 24%
Plaid Cymru 9%
Green 6%
Lib Dem 2%
Others 1%
REFORM GAIN FROM LABOUR
Wrexham
Conservative 28%
Reform 26%
Labour 24%
Plaid Cymru 10%
Green 6%
Lib Dem 4%
Others 2%
CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM LABOUR
Ynys Mon
Plaid Cymru 38%
Reform 29%
Labour 17%
Conservative 12%
Others 4%
Lib Dem 1%
Green 1%
PLAID CYMRU HOLD
* Not all totals are 100% because of rounding.
* Fieldwork was carried out between March 14 and April 1 based on data from 16,176 voters.
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b******s
More useless “what if-ery”, statistical speculation based on questionable data. Those who seek comfort will do so and prophets of doom will thrive on this rubbish.
What does this mean ?
People are disillusioned with Labour (rule from Westminster).
Plaid Cymru MUST recruit more members, build support.
Turn this negativity into positive support for a new Wales. Free from Westminster.
Free from UK imperialism.
How many were questioned in each Welsh constituencies?
What is Plaid’s plan to counter such progress if that is the correct phrase.
Very true. No policies besides demanding more money for everything (from a predetermined and limited budget), virtue signalling and banging on about HS2 money and the Crown Estate is not cutting through.
For all those who mark down this comment and criticise this please let me know how Plaid are actually currently on the way to power? Plaid has to come up with a believable slate of policies that appeal to all parts of the country. There is no alternative.
Don’t agree with you often but you are correct in your summary of the Plaid defects.
So I believe Plaid need to focus more populist policies (if you look at this data they tend to do well with Remain and university educated and awful with working class and non-university educated). I think Plaid need to be more populist in their literature – its crass but Neil McEvoy did well in this regard and this can be copied. I think the HS2 and Crown Estate is fine but doesn’t cut through enough to those who don’t pay attention to politics (a lot of people don’t know what CE is!) Some ideas on additional popular policies Half the… Read more »
AGREE WITH YOU Sion.
That’s what we must do.
We don’t live in an ideal Wales; Not yet anyway.
Be Positive and promote Plaid Cymru policies in a easy to understand way.
There is no easy way.
Canvass door to door always works.
Step up to the challenge.
That’s what Liberal democrats do in by-elections within England.
Unwise to overstate the significance of these findings, given that the next Westminster election is over four years off. Past experience teaches that an awful lot can change in that long span of time. But we’ll have our own Senedd elections much sooner than that – in little more than a year – and they’re certain to give us all an early steer as to the state of voter sentiment here in Wales at that point in time. If Reform does manage to make major gains in the Senedd elections in Wales next year, Plaid, in response, surely needs to… Read more »
Plaid’s raison d’être is independence for Wales – if a voter is opposed to welsh indy then i doubt they’d support plaid in the first place. But its ironic that’s being brought up here when plaid’s detractors have been complaining on this website for years that plaid doesnt talk about Welsh indy enough. Not sure what you’d classify as ‘other priorities’ John but campaigning for independence and for other things are not mutually exclusive – indeed plaid manages to do both.
Independence is the strategic object – and, given the state of the UK, one which I personally now find more appealing than I once did.
But I was thinking rather of the tactics which might need to be thought through in response to a perceived ‘voter mood’.
I think you are right, Plaid need to change tack: ditch the ‘wokism’, stop trying to be another Labour, and be something alternative for Wales that Welsh people can feel will put their needs first.
Reform are doing well in the polls, not because people like their policies (they don’t seem to have many), but because many people feel that the main parties, Plaid included, are not listening to them. It’s frightening!
The socialist ancestors of these people in the Valleys will be spinning in their grave at the thought of them voting for English nationalists like Farage and his racist mates.
The trouble is that today Labour party is left wing rather than socialist. It is a distinction left wingers will not understand but Welsh miners will.
Keir Starmer’s party has nothing left wing about it. It’s occupying the centre right territory previously occupied by the Tories before the lunatics took the party over.
Tell me who did Labour vote as leader before Starmer and remember he lost the red wall.Starmer may not be left but he is not altogether typical I’d Labour. Labour carries the name but not the universal .message it once carried.
I imagine they’ve been spinning since 2016 when Wales voted to leave the EU…
Well yes considering what a self inflicted disaster Brexit has turned out to be in Wales.
It was English retirees that skewed the voting in 2016.
Whether they are English, Scottish, Welsh as retired people they must see that the UK system has failed as we older people have been around longer.
Even the reform group have advertised that the UK is broken but…..
They have no solutions.
What policies would be their solution ?
Reform does not clearly advertise its policies because they are fascist with no thoughts of the consequences of their actions – a bit similar to Oswald Mosley’s party of ninety years ago – A protest party and dangerous to everyone.
But have the Valleys always been socialist, or were they just anti-tory?
1) a general election isnt due for another 4 years. 2) this has all the hallmarks of those polls in the early 80s showing the SDP would win 400 seats. Years of actual elections shows us things never turn out the way polls like this project. For sure Reform are going to win seats in the next Senedd elections – but given the history of every party Farage has led – theres a good chance they’ll have split apart within a year or two (they are already dumping local election candidates in england because of their barmy extremist views –… Read more »
These results will happen, and is self inflicted by the Labour Party by ignoring working class people in poorer areas of Wales , ignoring huge petitions and passing the buck to councils to generally ignore. Ignoring priorities like education, the NHS, and pollution levels ,the underwhelming transport system and the general state
of the roads with regards to repair and traffic jams doesn’t help either. People can see that over half the Labour MSs are stepping down because of their age is a red herring if you can excuse the pun !
And what go reform offer?
Would that be the huge petition against 20 mph speed restrictions that was in the Labour manifesto?
In the last three general elections in Dwyfor Meirionnydd, the Lib Dems received a paltry 4, 3.1 and 3.4% of the vote in each consecutive election, but according to this poll they are now up to 13% of the vote in that constituency!! HOW and WHY!! When you see such peculiar poll findings, it’s hard to see how anyone can take them seriously.
Are you listening, Labour?? Wales is telling you to stop treating us with contempt! There is a way out of this: Devolve the Crown Estates, railway tracks, police and Justice, as demanded by our elected government – and stop patronising us by telling us that it’s not in our best interest to control these ourselves. Give us our fair share of the Barnett Consequential from HS2. This is our taxpayer money, not a potential gift! Stop the assault on free speech and beliefs – when people are getting arrested for praying, or sacked for saying women have wombs, it has… Read more »
In the last census, 55% of our population in Cymru identified as ‘Welsh’ yet these polls suggest that a significant number of those would vote to put our country out of existence. What sort of ‘Welsh’ is that? Some would say they are fed up with the ‘same old’ and want a change. Well there are some options. Plaid Cymru, Greens, Lib Dems and others to be announced, spoil ballot paper/ abstain or shred voting card and stay at home. ANYTHING BUT TORYFORM. Of course whereas Reform would once have harmed the Tory vote, the roles have now reversed so… Read more »
Yeah, lets get the X in the box first. Polls are always right are they not?
But vote this party in and you get US v2.5 and that country is drowning in its own effluent. Farage will tell you he can turn lead into gold to get your vote. He is a grifter. See Brexit, what did he get right?
Anyone seen the English reps standing for councils? Bigotry, racist, hate filled, many words to describe them as their socials are uncovered.
Depressing times here. I’m actually totally lost on who I’d vote for at the moment. Don’t want to vote Reform for obvious reasons. Welsh Labour are appalling, and have been for a long time. Conservatives no comment. Plaid just offer nothing. Any ideas anyone?
I feel exactly the same.
Hold your nose and vote tactically.
I take this with a big pinch of salt. But it’s no good banging on about Brit Nats and socialists spinning in their graves. Welsh Labour reek of complacency and Plaid very comfortable in opposition – virtue signalling as Llyn put it. What’s changed is there is now a real challenger (like it or not) and the Valleys in particular have had enough of empty rhetoric.
“Empty rhetoric” Reform’s policies?
I’m no Farage fan; but the burden of proof is on those who have had 25 years in the Senedd to make a difference (not just Labour). Try convincing a recently redundant steelworker in Port Talbot otherwise or plenty of others.
Whilst individuals rights to choose should be 100% respected, I’m afraid I just couldn’t forgive anyone for sinking that low and disgusting as a human being to support reform. They’re an obvious and disgusting bunch of wronguns and crooks who would leave wales decimated.
If you openly support crooks and wronguns, there’s a good chance you’re the same.
Half of these candidates would win by less than 30% of the vote!!. We need electoral reform now. First past the post is not fit for the 21st century.
I imagine if the polls stay as they are there will be a lot tactical voting going on next election. Lib Dems, Greens, Labour lending each other votes to ensure that the Reform candidates do not win.