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Rhun ap Iorwerth and Andrew RT Davies would make better FM than Gething- Poll

28 Jun 2024 3 minute read
Left: Rhun ap Iorwerth, C: Vaughan Gething R: Andrew RT Davies

Emily Price

Vaughan Gething trails both Rhun ap Iorwerth and Andrew RT Davies in a Wales-wide poll for who would be a better First Minister.

The latest Welsh Westminster and Senedd Voting Intention poll carried out on 19-20 June 2024 by Redfield and Wilton asked Welsh voters which of the party leaders they thought would make the best First Minister.

The results showed that Mr Gething (25%) trails Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth (28%) by three points and is behind Tory Andrew RT Davies by one point (26% to 27%).

The First Minister holds a net approval rating this month of -25%. This is down two points from the previous poll.

17% (-4) of voters now approve of Mr Gething’s overall job performance as First Minister of Wales – against 42% (-2) who now disapprove.

The embattled First Minister’s drop in support follows weeks of controversies over donations to his campaign and deleted Covid messages.

Among other party leaders in the Senedd, the Conservatives leader holds a net approval rating of -12% (-5).

Mr ap Iorwerth holds a net approval rating this month of +1% (+2).

The monthly Welsh tracker also found that 38% of Welsh voters find the Labour Welsh Government to be incompetent compared to 23% who find the Welsh Government to be competent.

The devolved government received a positive net approval ratings for its performances on the coronavirus pandemic, the environment, and cultural issues.

But on all other issues, particularly the NHS (-32%) it received a negative net approval rating.

On Westminster voting intention the poll found that Labour are leading Reform in Wales by 29% – two points more than in the previous poll on 5-7 June.

The Conservatives achieved their lowest vote share in Redfield and Wilton’s polling in Wales to date.

Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is now 31% – four points more than in the previous poll.

Altogether, the results (with changes from 5-7 June in brackets) are as follows:

Labour 46% (+1)
Reform UK 17% (-1)
Conservatives 15% (-3)
Plaid Cymru 10% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 7% (+2)
Green 4% (–)
Other 1% (+1)

79% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they will vote Labour again.

Only 38% of those who voted Tory in Wales in 2019 will now vote Conservative again.

This is just one point above the lowest percentage ever recorded by the Welsh political tracker (37% on 23-24 March this year).

62% of Welsh voters cite the NHS as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election – ahead of the economy (57%).

Other frequently selected issues include immigration (38%) and housing (21%).

When asked who would be a better Prime Minister, 50% of Welsh voters said Sir Keir Starmer and only 20% (-5) said Rishi Sunak.

Mr Sunak received a net approval rating of -31%. This is down five points from his previous rating in Wales.

54% (+2) of Welsh voters disapprove of his overall job performance against 23% (-3) who approve.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating in Wales stands at +5% – the same as the previous poll.

35% (-5) of Welsh voters approved of Starmer’s job performance – whilst 30% (-5) disapprove.


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Erisian
Erisian
16 days ago

RT Davies has only one skill – and if we confiscated his dog whistle, he would have none.

Welsh Patriot
Welsh Patriot
16 days ago

I suspect just about anyone would make a better FM than the one we have!

Rhddwen y Sais
Rhddwen y Sais
16 days ago
Reply to  Welsh Patriot

Yes even good old Joe B.

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
15 days ago
Reply to  Welsh Patriot

They all took a step back, if the place is so devoid of courage, talent or self belief then it is a .very poor show…

We shall wander into the wilderness, rather than being led into the promised land by a visionary polymath…

Frank
Frank
16 days ago

Out of the three of them there is only one that stands out and that is Rhun. It’s a no-brainer. We haven’t heard much, if anything, from the other two. Rhun is the only one that seems to have visions for Cymru’s future.

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
16 days ago
Reply to  Frank

There is still 5 days before polling day.
Rhun has a positive rating.
Plaid Cymru could win big in this election.

… Go for it ! Set up for our own Senedd election in 2026 for a Plaid majority.

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
15 days ago

That’s the spirit, some bright shiny Plaid signs round me, sorely needed on the north coast. So many abandoned by Plaid…not entirely serious, my brief looksee wasn’t too encouraging, but hopefully the activists are active…sad about the Pavilion tho…

Last edited 15 days ago by Mab Meirion
Betel23
Betel23
15 days ago
Reply to  Frank

And there stands a true inward looking Welsh person.
Do you speak Welsh?
I am a proud Welshman who cannot speak the Welsh language and have no intention of doing so, does that make me less Welsh?
Forcing people to take the language has never worked, let people have their own choice.
Welsh language is a choice not a requirement.

Frank
Frank
15 days ago
Reply to  Betel23

Are you sure you replied to the right comment? What part of my comment mentioned the Welsh language? What part of my comment suggested “forcing people to take the language”? Please read it again. Oh, yes I am a first-language Welsh speaker and very proud that I can speak two languages.

Betel23
Betel23
15 days ago
Reply to  Frank

Showing love and support for Dictator Drakeford who is an out and out isolationist who wanted all the things I mentioned.

Frank
Frank
15 days ago
Reply to  Betel23

I am very sorry but I do not understand where you are coming from on this thread. I am completely confused. What the hell has Mark Drakeford got to do with it? Just in case you had not noticed the article is all about Rhun ap Iorwerth, Vaughn Gething and R. T. Davies!!

betel23
betel23
15 days ago
Reply to  Frank

Only see your own soapbox. Was it not you who thought that
Drakeford was a good Prif Winingdog the word spelt after Prif is as intended He was a total disaster

Frank
Frank
14 days ago
Reply to  betel23

Sorry mate, but you’ve got the wrong person. Can I suggest you get your facts right before you shoot your gob off and accuse someone.

Last edited 14 days ago by Frank
Another Richard
Another Richard
16 days ago

Why on earth does the Welsh Labour government get a net positive rating on cultural issues? It has cut spending by 30% in real terms since 2017 (as reported here on 12 June: https://nation.cymru/culture/arts-funding-in-wales-cut-by-30/). This is nearly three times as much as England, while Scotland is actually increasing spending. Two possible explanations: either people are not paying attention, or they genuinely feel that spending on culture should be pared back to the absolute minimum.

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
16 days ago

Who came between the two ? It is a choice between all MS…Give it Mabon…

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
16 days ago
Reply to  Mab Meirion

So out of all of them it’s Rhun, however there may be another heir apparent, noted for his humanity and concern for the people of Cymru with a familiar name…

Chris
Chris
16 days ago

32% (so basically 1 in 3) will vote Reform or Tory compared to 10% for Plaid.

Just a reminder that Wales isn’t some left wing off shoot.

(And I’m not part of the 32% or 10%, just highlighting the facts).

Mike Hedges
Mike Hedges
16 days ago
Reply to  Chris

What evidence have you got that Plaid Cymru are l ft wing

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
15 days ago
Reply to  Mike Hedges

According to Lord Porthmadog they dress to the right or so he claimed as he jumped ship taking thousands of Plaid votes with him and landing a great seat on the gravy train…

Old Curmudgeon
Old Curmudgeon
16 days ago

I am what I think is a ‘floating voter’ and a few months ago I would have voted Labour at this election but after the disgraceful performances of both Labour and conservatives It would seem that Rhun ap Iorwerth is the only leader that is behaving like a leader at the moment. Whether this is because he is still new into his job and hasn’t become cynical only time will tell. But comparing him to the new labour first minister (who doesn’t seem to grasp the concept of leadership) I would rather Rhun ap Iorwerth speak for me than any… Read more »

Ianto
Ianto
16 days ago

If this was replicated in the Senedd election, we would have some 17 Reform hardliners – hand picked by Farage – as members actively working to kill off our democracy. Thanks to Plaid and Labour for their monumental stitch up.

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
16 days ago
Reply to  Ianto

Reform UK is what it says – a ‘UK’ party.

It is not a Welsh party. It doesn’t serve Welsh interests.
It is a England based party.

Why would any Welsh person have any time for them?
Scotland mostly ignores them.

The UK means UK and that is not Wales not Scotland.

Riki
Riki
16 days ago

You are right, it’s unfortunate that they can control Wales by gaining control of Westminster then! The UK isn’t and has never been a democracy. Anyone who thinks so is deluding themselves. Scotland and Wales were given parliaments so that we would believe we control something when in reality we don’t. We don’t have a set at the UN!!! Until that happens, we aren’t a real modern nation.

Riki
Riki
16 days ago
Reply to  Ianto

Yep, and these reformers are even more dangerous than The Tories. Atleast the Tories were willing to give us a minor role in running our own affairs. The Reformers actively seek Scotland and Wales’ absorption into England. As I always maintain, the people of Wales has to be the most politically illiterate people on earth. We constantly vote for the thing that makes our lives worse.

Rhddwen y Sais
Rhddwen y Sais
16 days ago
Reply to  Riki

Which reformers said that?

Riki
Riki
15 days ago
Reply to  Rhddwen y Sais

Oh come on – Reforms whole existence is based on the belief that the UK or Britain is a singular country. Which by default would mean they don’t see England, Scotland or Wales as such.

R W
R W
16 days ago
Reply to  Ianto

The Savanta poll for ITV Wales earlier this week had very different results. Plaid and Reform were tied on 12% each with the Tories on 19%. So who’s right, Savanta or Redfield and Wilton? The Savanta poll also showed Plaid in second place on 22% for Senedd election voting intention with Reform well behind on just 7%.

Why vote
Why vote
16 days ago

Politicians all are so out of touch with real life they as well be aliens from another galaxy, busy being self-important and looking after their own interests. All of them the big I am!.

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
15 days ago

What, a poll says Andrew RT Davies would make a good First Minister lol. Is it April Fools day already? May I point out to those who naively think the leader of the opposition would make a good First Minister, that he once said that Wales needed “a bit of Dom” in reference to Dominic Cummings, a man so Ill with Covid that travelled the length of England with his family infecting all in his wake to test his eyesight. I rest my case. Look, there’s only one true leader in Wales. Not Vaughan Gething or Andrew RT Davies. That’s… Read more »

Last edited 15 days ago by Y Cymro
Old Curmudgeon
Old Curmudgeon
15 days ago
Reply to  Y Cymro

I read it as the poll stated that people thought these would make a better first minister. This shows how badly VG is coping with being a first minister.

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
15 days ago

Right and wrong in one place here. Rhun would clearly be a better FM than Gething but much as I want him out, Gething, with all the scandal and confidence vote in tow, couldn’t possibly be behind the apocalyptic disaster as having RT in the post. Secondly, our nation has a serious disease of its’ collective mind if Reform and Tories are ahead of Plaid in a poll. We are a very long way from our aspiration to be a non racist country.

Alun
Alun
15 days ago

ARTD doesn’t even make a good leader of the opposition.

Nubs
Nubs
15 days ago

I think my blind and deaf dog would make a better FM than VG!

Mandi A
Mandi A
15 days ago

Very important that you read Jac-o’-the-North on R&W. R&W aka a solicitor with a Brazilian background “self-commissions” polls. Any poll should state how many people were polled and who paid for the research. Jac usefully reaches a link with Lynn Global, behaviour “analysts” and nudgers who have recently teamed up with a South African guy. Ask ourselves why is Wales interesting to these people. Certainly interesting to Mr Farage who can show himself at 17%, 2nd only to Labour. That’s a lot but actually worth taking on board when we have real data from previous elections where on Ynys Mon… Read more »

R W
R W
15 days ago
Reply to  Mandi A

Exactly, there are genuine opinion polling companies and there are a handful of shady ones with ulterior motives. That may explain why this opinion poll is so different to others we’ve seen.

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
15 days ago

Good old Jac…read and learn…

Betel23
Betel23
15 days ago

I see one of my “Approved “ posts has gone West & North. If you know what I mean.

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